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Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, a leading financial media platform that provides deep insights into global markets, economics, and investing through interviews and analysis from top experts. Before launching Real Vision, Pal built a distinguished career in the financial world, working as a researcher and macro strategist for some of the world’s largest hedge funds and asset managers.
He previously served as a Global Macro Fund Manager at GLG Partners, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, and was also involved in managing hedge fund sales at Goldman Sachs in London. With a strong background in global macroeconomics, Raoul Pal is widely recognized for his forward-thinking research on financial trends, cryptocurrencies, and the global monetary system, often sharing his views on the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets.
The Age of AI and the End of Traditional Trading
Raoul Pal begins the interview with one of the most striking and thought-provoking ideas in finance today — the dawn of an era where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, not only in speed and efficiency but in creative reasoning and prediction. He describes this shift as one of the largest transformations in human history, comparable only to the Industrial Revolution or the discovery of the internet. But this time, the difference is existential: for the first time ever, humans will no longer be the most intelligent entities on the planet.
Pal explains that the coming wave of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be capable of analyzing and reacting to financial markets far better than any human trader. AGI will process information — from macroeconomic data to micro sentiment on social media — in real time, making decisions based purely on probabilities and pattern recognition. Where a human needs hours or days to digest economic releases, AI can evaluate thousands of data streams per second, learn from them, and execute trades with near-perfect precision. The result is a world where the edge of human traders disappears.
In his words, “What’s the point of a trader when you’ve got an AGI that can do it better? What edge do you ever have?” This rhetorical question captures his central thesis — trading, as we know it, may not survive in its current form.
But rather than adopting a fatalistic tone, Raoul Pal sees this moment as an opportunity. He believes traders and investors must adapt by learning to work alongside AI rather than competing against it. The first step, he says, is simply to start experimenting. Pal encourages everyone — even those with no technical background — to take a chart of their favorite asset, upload it to ChatGPT, and ask: “What do you think?”
That simple exercise, he explains, can be eye-opening. ChatGPT can identify patterns, summarize market behavior, highlight correlations, and even explain what might be driving the moves. “It’ll blow your mind,” Pal says, emphasizing that AI tools can already outperform most human analysis on a fundamental and technical level.
From this perspective, the trader of the future is not someone who tries to outthink the machine but rather someone who knows how to collaborate with it — feeding it data, asking better questions, and using it to refine strategies and risk management systems. AI, in Pal’s view, becomes the ultimate trading partner, capable of testing ideas instantly, modeling scenarios, and filtering noise from meaningful signals.
Yet, there’s also a deeper philosophical layer to his argument. If machines become better at predicting markets, what becomes of human intuition, emotion, and risk-taking — the very essence of trading? Pal admits that we’re entering “a strange world” where the definition of a trader, investor, or even entrepreneur will have to be rewritten. But he is optimistic: just as past technological revolutions displaced old industries while creating new ones, the rise of AI will spark an entirely new ecosystem of financial creativity — from algorithmic model design to AI-assisted investment strategies and data-driven asset management.
Ultimately, Raoul Pal’s message is both a warning and an invitation. Traditional trading — driven by human analysis and emotion — is fading. But those who embrace the tools of this new age, who learn to harness AI rather than fear it, will find themselves on the right side of history.
As he puts it, “AI is a superpower — and anybody not using it is fighting with one hand tied behind their back.”
Macro Investing and Capturing Long-Term Trends
Raoul Pal’s macro-investing philosophy revolves around seeing the financial world as an interconnected system of global opportunities. Instead of fixating on short-term market fluctuations, he studies the broader economic forces that shape entire decades — what he calls secular trends. For Pal, true wealth is built not by timing daily or weekly moves, but by identifying the deep, structural shifts that redefine industries, currencies, and societies.
He describes macro investing as the process of looking across all asset classes and geographies to find where the greatest returns lie, and then using economic understanding to explain why those opportunities exist. Business cycles, liquidity flows, debt growth, and demographics — these are the invisible engines that determine where money will flow next. By aligning with those engines, investors can position themselves early in powerful trends that compound over time.
Pal often contrasts this long-term perspective with the frustration and difficulty of short-term trading. Trading, he argues, is hard, unpredictable, and heavily influenced by emotion and noise. But when a secular trend begins — like the rise of digital technology or the evolution of money through crypto — it often continues upward for years or even decades. Capturing that momentum, he says, is the easiest and most effective way to “un-mess your future.”
According to Pal, there are two mega-trends that define this era: technology and cryptocurrency. Technology continues to transform every aspect of life — “tomorrow is always more digital than today.” Meanwhile, crypto represents the fastest-growing asset class in human history, driven by decentralized innovation, network effects, and adoption cycles that mirror the early internet.
His advice is straightforward: place most of your capital into these long-term structural growth stories and let time do the work. Only a small portion should be reserved for active trading, speculation, or chasing short-term setups. Over a long enough horizon, he notes, very few traders outperform simply holding positions aligned with these powerful macro trends.
Raoul Pal’s Leading Indicators
To identify when these trends are beginning or accelerating, Raoul Pal relies on a framework built around several key leading indicators that help him see where the global economy is heading before markets react.
- Global Liquidity (M2 Money Supply) – Pal monitors the amount of money circulating in major economies. When liquidity expands, it tends to push risk assets — like stocks and crypto — higher in the months ahead.
- Financial Conditions Index – This combines data on credit spreads, interest rates, and risk appetite. Easier financial conditions signal that capital is flowing more freely and that growth assets are likely to perform well.
- Business-Cycle Indicators – He studies manufacturing data, new orders, and consumer confidence to understand where we are in the cycle — whether growth is accelerating or decelerating.
- Commodities and Energy Prices – Rising demand for oil, copper, and other cyclical commodities is often one of the first signs that economic momentum is picking up.
- Technology and Crypto Leadership – Pal observes that assets such as tech stocks and Bitcoin tend to lead global recoveries, making them early signals of renewed risk-taking and economic expansion.
Over the years, Pal has combined these data points into what he calls The Everything Code — a comprehensive model linking demographics, debt, liquidity, and productivity into a unified view of global markets. This system gives him an early sense of where capital is flowing next and how different asset classes — from equities to crypto — will react.
For him, these indicators act like a compass in an ocean of uncertainty. When liquidity and business conditions improve, he tilts toward growth and innovation; when they tighten, he becomes more defensive.
In essence, Raoul Pal’s macro strategy is about stepping back from the noise, watching the tide of global liquidity and innovation, and positioning capital where those waves are rising the fastest.
How to Position Yourself Before the Next Massive Shift
Raoul Pal envisions the coming decade as one of the most dramatic turning points in human and economic history. He believes that by 2030 to 2032, the global economy will undergo a massive transformation fueled by aging populations, artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation. This combination, he explains, will fundamentally reshape how wealth, productivity, and work are distributed.
In the past, economic growth depended on population expansion — more workers meant more output. But as birth rates decline and societies age, that model is breaking down. Pal argues that automation and AI will replace the human labor gap by becoming new “productive units.” In other words, robots and intelligent systems will continue producing value even as the human workforce shrinks. This shift will decouple productivity from population size, creating the potential for explosive economic growth but also massive uncertainty about how humans fit into this new system.
For the first time, humanity will no longer be the most intelligent force on the planet. AI will think faster, analyze better, and make decisions far beyond human capability. That means traditional roles — including trading, management, and analysis — could lose relevance. Yet Pal emphasizes that this should not inspire fear, but preparation. Humans are adaptable, and those who prepare financially will have the freedom to explore new opportunities in this changing world.
His advice is clear: build financial security now, before the shift fully arrives. That means accumulating assets in areas of structural growth such as cryptocurrency and technology, which he sees as the foundations of the next era. Crypto, in particular, offers individuals the ability to participate in a new decentralized economy that is evolving alongside AI.
Pal’s philosophy is to think of your future self — the person who will live in this AI-driven world. What choices today will that future version of you be grateful for? He encourages people to make investments and build savings that create freedom and flexibility, rather than dependence on traditional job structures that may no longer exist.
He believes the coming world will reward those who are prepared, creative, and financially independent. The goal, therefore, is not to predict exactly what your job or income will look like in 10 years — because no one can — but to ensure that when the world changes, you have the capital and mindset to adapt quickly.
In short, Raoul Pal’s message is one of empowerment: recognize that the economic and technological revolution is inevitable, and position yourself today to benefit from it rather than be overwhelmed by it.
Trading Psychology, Probability, and Mistakes
Raoul Pal believes that most traders fail not because they lack knowledge, but because they fail to understand themselves. In his view, trading success depends less on predicting markets and more on managing emotions, discipline, and expectations. Many traders, he explains, confuse luck with skill — a few early wins can create the illusion of mastery, feeding an ego that eventually leads to reckless risk-taking. When markets inevitably turn, that overconfidence becomes a trader’s downfall.
Pal reminds traders that markets are games of probability, not certainty. Even the most well-researched setup with an 80 percent chance of success will fail 20 percent of the time. Accepting this truth separates professionals from amateurs. Instead of expecting perfection, successful traders focus on managing losses, maintaining consistency, and keeping a rational mindset through cycles of wins and setbacks.
He also warns against the seductive trap of leverage. Overexposure to risk, especially when combined with emotion and overconfidence, destroys more accounts than bad analysis ever will. For Pal, risk management is a psychological skill — it requires humility and patience, not aggression.
To improve discipline, he recommends that every trader write down each trade before taking it: the entry point, exit strategy, stop loss, and reasoning behind it. This practice brings clarity, accountability, and self-awareness. By reviewing these notes later, traders can identify patterns in their behavior — impulsive entries, ignored signals, emotional exits — and begin correcting them systematically.
Ultimately, Pal argues that time horizon is the most misunderstood edge in trading. Most people think too short-term, reacting to noise instead of trends. The greatest traders and investors stretch their perspective, allowing trades and investments to mature rather than forcing quick results. Patience, he insists, almost always outperforms constant activity. Trading less often, but with more conviction, builds long-term consistency. In his words, the key is not to chase excitement but to chase endurance — because longevity in the markets is the real measure of skill.
Crypto, Community, and the Future of Financial Intelligence
In the final part of the discussion, Raoul Pal returns to one of his strongest convictions — that cryptocurrency represents the most important wealth opportunity of this generation. He calls it the fastest-growing asset class in human history, not only because of its performance but because of the fundamental technological and social changes it introduces.
Pal acknowledges that many newcomers to crypto have been burned by speculative meme coins and short-lived projects. Yet he encourages them to return with a more mature mindset — focusing on quality assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and well-structured blockchain networks. These are the projects positioned at the “lower end of the risk curve,” meaning they carry long-term credibility and adoption potential rather than hype. By shifting focus from gambling to strategic investing, traders can benefit from the long arc of innovation rather than short bursts of speculation.
Beyond price charts, Pal sees crypto as part of a broader evolution in human collaboration — the rise of the attention economy and tokenized communities. He believes that information, reputation, and shared intelligence are becoming new forms of capital. Communities built on transparency and shared data, where trade ideas and performance are recorded on the blockchain, will redefine what financial ecosystems look like. This is also the direction he is steering Real Vision, his media and research company — toward a digital platform that merges education, analysis, and decentralized community engagement.
In Pal’s vision, the investor of the future will not operate alone. Instead, they will combine human creativity and intuition with AI tools that process vast amounts of information, while relying on collective intelligence from smart, connected communities. In such an environment, ideas will be openly shared, performance can be verified, and value will flow directly between creators and participants.
He sees this as the next evolution of finance — a system where intelligence itself becomes the asset, and those who can blend insight, technology, and collaboration will lead the next generation of global wealth creation.
He is an expert in financial niche, long-term trading, and weekly technical levels.
The primary field of Igor's research is the application of machine learning in algorithmic trading.
Education: Computer Engineering and Ph.D. in machine learning.
Igor regularly publishes trading-related videos on the Fxigor Youtube channel.
To contact Igor write on:
igor@forex.in.rs
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