Table of Contents
In this interview, trader Dapo Willis opens up about the early mistakes that nearly knocked him out of the game and the simple shifts that put him back on track. He explains why too many indicators create confusion, how a cleaner chart builds confidence, and what it really takes to go from “winging it” to a process you can rinse and repeat. It’s an honest, no-hype conversation with a trader who’s been punched by the market and learned to punch back with structure.
You’ll learn a practical top-down workflow (higher-timeframe bias first, execution second), the logic behind waiting for clean pullbacks instead of chasing candles, and how to set risk so one loss never ruins your week. We’ll unpack Dapo’s checklist for trade selection, the mindset that keeps him patient through chop, and the habits that turn “nice idea” into a repeatable trader strategy you can actually follow—especially if you’re just starting.
Dapo Willis Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
The Core Philosophy (Top-Down First, Always)
Before looking for entries, he decides the dominant direction using higher timeframes, then works down to refine execution. This keeps him aligned with the bigger move and avoids getting chopped up by noise on small charts.
- Start every week on Monthly → Weekly → Daily → 4H in that order.
- Only trade with the Monthly/Weekly bias unless a clear higher-timeframe reversal structure forms.
- If Monthly and Weekly disagree, stand down or reduce size until alignment returns.
- Mark HTF swing highs/lows and structure breaks; ignore anything that doesn’t touch those levels.
Mapping Key Levels & “Willis Zones”
He treats levels like job sites: you go there to work. Zones are built from obvious prior reaction points and HTF structure—not from guesswork—so price has a reason to move there.
- Draw weekly support/resistance at obvious reaction clusters; refine with daily opens/ closes/wicks.
- Define a “Willis Zone”: a confluence box where a prior level overlaps a fib pocket (50–61.8%) and a broken structure retest.
- Only plan trades at these zones; no zone, no trade.
- If a zone breaks decisively (body close beyond + follow-through), invalidate it and remap—no hope trades.
Fibonacci With Price Action (The Entry Engine)
Fibs are confirmation, not prediction. He uses them to frame pullbacks and time entries with clean candle signals, so stops are tight and logic is repeatable.
- After an impulse aligned with HTF bias, pull a fib from swing low→high (uptrend) or high→low (downtrend).
- Preferred entry pocket: 50%–61.8%; tolerate 38.2% only if the trend is exceptionally strong.
- Wait for reversal candles (pin, engulfing, strong close) inside the pocket before entering.
- Place a stop beyond the swing (not just beyond the entry candle) to avoid easy stop-outs.
Execution Timeframes & Triggers
He analyzes the higher frames but makes decisions where the narrative is crisp. This balances context with precision.
- Bias: Monthly/Weekly; planning: Daily/4H; trigger: 4H/1H.
- No entries on <15m; if you must zoom in, only for fine-tuning the same 4H/1H setup.
- If the 1H structure contradicts 4H at the zone, skip the trade—the 4H must confirm first.
- Avoid entries during the first 5–15 minutes of a major session open; let spreads/whipsaws settle.
Risk & Position Sizing (Capital First)
He survives bad days by making them mathematically small. Fixed risk lets the winners speak when the market finally trends.
- Risk 1% per trade max; advanced traders can stack to 2% total only with multiple A-setups in the same bias.
- Target minimum 1:2, prefer 1:3. If the structure doesn’t allow 1:2 to logical targets, pass.
- For correlated pairs, cap portfolio risk at 2% across all open trades.
- Never widen stops. If invalidation hits, close—don’t negotiate.
Trade Management & Exits
He treats exits like entries: rules, not vibes. Partial profits and break-even logic keep emotions out when price wiggles.
- Scale 25–50% at 1R–1.5R if structure stalls; move stop to break-even after partials.
- Final target at the next HTF level or measured move (AB=CD / previous swing).
- If price returns to your zone without invalidation, you can reload once—never a third time.
- News spike in your favor? Bank partials and trail under/over the last swing structure.
News, Volatility & Timing
He doesn’t gamble on headlines; he uses them to time pullbacks and let liquidity fill him at the zone.
- Know the weekly calendar: NFP, CPI, FOMC, and rate decisions.
- No fresh entries within 30–60 minutes before red-folder events on the affected currency.
- If already in profit pre-news: trim 30–50%, or lock in at break-even plus a small buffer.
- Use news-driven spikes to fill your zone only if HTF bias and structure remain intact.
Building the Watchlist (Quality Over Quantity)
He doesn’t chase every chart. A short, high-probability menu keeps him focused and consistent.
- Limit to 6–10 instruments you know well (e.g., majors + 2–3 indices or gold).
- Each weekend, pre-map 2–3 A-zones per instrument with screenshots and notes.
- If a pair is mid-range (no level, no zone, no alignment), remove it until it returns to plan.
- Log why each pair is on the list this week (bias, zone, invalidation).
A+ Setup Checklist (Print This)
His best trades look the same. If the majority of boxes aren’t checked, he stands down.
- HTF bias (Monthly/Weekly) aligned with trade direction.
- Clear impulse → pullback toward a pre-marked zone.
- Confluence: level + fib 50–61.8% + structure retest.
- Trigger: engulfing/pin/strong close on 4H/1H at the zone.
- Stop: beyond last swing; TP: next HTF level; R: R ≥ 1:2 (ideally 1:3).
- Risk size ≤1%; no red-folder events inside your entry window.
Journaling & Review (The Compounding Edge)
He treats data like a coach. The journal tells him what to repeat and what to delete so performance improves automatically.
- Record screenshot before/after, bias notes, zone logic, trigger candle, stop/target, and emotions.
- Tag trades by setup type (trend pullback, breakout retest, reversal) and grade (A/B/C).
- Weekly: compute win rate, average R, and drawdown; cut any setup with <1.5R average.
- Rewrite the next week’s plan based on journal insights, not memory.
Weekly Routine (How He Stays Prepared)
Routine beats talent. He repeats the same workflow, so execution becomes second nature.
- Weekend (90–120 min): HTF scan, draw zones, write trade plans with invalidations.
- Daily (20–30 min): Pre-London or pre-NY review; update watchlist; set alerts at zones.
- During sessions: Wait for price to come to you; if no trigger, do nothing.
- Friday: Close runners before illiquid close; archive charts into the journal.
Psychology & Discipline (Rules That Keep You In The Game)
The market rewards patience, and punishments are swift. These guardrails keep him objective when emotions flare.
- Two-strike rule: after 2 losses in a session, stop trading that day.
- No revenge trades—only planned setups at pre-marked zones.
- If you break a rule, log it and halve the size until you stack 5 rule-compliant trades.
- Celebrate process wins (followed plan, honored stop) over P&L for sustained consistency.
Tools & Chart Hygiene
Clean charts, clear mind. He keeps the workspace simple so decisions are obvious.
- Platform: use a charting tool that lets you set alerts, save templates, and annotate zones quickly.
- Template: candles + HTF levels + fibs only; hide indicators unless they add objective value.
- Color-code levels by timeframe (e.g., Weekly = bold, Daily = medium, 4H = light).
- Weekly, clear old drawings so only the current structure guides decisions.
Size Risk First: Fixed Percent, Asymmetry Targets, Never Widen Stops
Dapo Willis starts every trade by sizing risk, not by hunting entries. He fixes a small percent per trade—think 0.5% to 1%—so a bad day is survivable and a bad week is still recoverable. Before clicking buy or sell, he asks if the structure allows at least 1:2, ideally 1:3, to keep the math working in his favor. If the chart can’t support that asymmetry to a logical target without moving the stop to nonsense, he passes.
Once in the trade, he never widens the stop—invalid is invalid, full stop. If price moves his way, he scales partials at 1R–1.5R and lets the runner aim for the planned multiple to lock in asymmetry. When volatility spikes, he cuts position size but keeps the same percent risk, so dollars at risk remain constant. By treating risk as a fixed cost and outcome as variable, Dapo Willis ensures process discipline beats prediction every time.
Allocate by Volatility: Scale Exposure When ATR Expands, Trim During Chop
Dapo Willis lets volatility set the gas pedal. When Average True Range expands and structure is clean, he allows bigger exposure per idea—but still caps risk in percent terms—because ranges justify wider stops and fatter targets. In quiet, choppy phases, he cuts size and demands cleaner confluence, refusing to burn capital grinding sideways. He treats ATR like weather: sunny trends invite a longer drive; storms mean slower speeds and more distance from the car ahead.
Practically, Dapo Willis widens stops to the structure, then scales position size so dollars-at-risk stay constant while aiming for at least 1:2 R: R. If ATR spikes into news, he’ll split entries or stagger limits, avoiding full size at the worst spreads. When ATR compresses, he either waits for a breakout-retest or trades smaller with tighter management—no heroics. The result is smoother equity curves because his exposure breathes with the market instead of fighting it.
Diversify Intelligently: Mix Underlyings, Strategy Types, and Trade Durations
Dapo Willis doesn’t spread himself thin; he diversifies with intention. He picks a compact basket—majors, one metal, maybe an index—so he knows the personalities of each market. Within that basket, he avoids stacking the same macro bet twice; if EURUSD and GBPUSD are both dollar trades, he’ll choose the cleaner setup and pass on the duplicate.
He also diversifies by playbook. Dapo Willis runs trend pullbacks when higher timeframes align, keeps a separate breakout-retest plan for expansions, and reserves a limited reversal play only at multi-touch HTF levels. Finally, he staggers time horizons: a swing on the daily might coexist with a 4H tactical add, but he won’t crowd entries that share the same invalidation. This way, correlation risk stays contained while edge compounds across instruments, strategies, and durations.
Rules Over Predictions: Trade Mechanics, Confluence Zones, and Repeatable Triggers
Dapo Willis doesn’t guess direction; he executes a checklist. He starts by aligning with a higher-timeframe structure, then marks confluence zones where prior levels, a 50–61.8% pullback, and a clean retest overlap. Only at those locations does he look for confirmation—an engulfing close, a strong rejection wick, or a break-and-retest that holds on the next candle. If the trigger doesn’t print at the zone, he passes and waits for the price to come to him.
He treats entries, stops, and targets as mechanical decisions, not feelings. The stop goes beyond the invalidation swing, the first target sits at the next clear level, and runners ride as long as the structure stays intact. If a rule is broken mid-trade, Dapo Willis records it and immediately reverts to a smaller size until compliance is consistent again. The edge isn’t in predicting the next candle; it’s in repeating the same high-quality trigger at the same kind of zone, week after week.
Prefer Defined Risk: Pre-Set Exits, Partial Profits, Daily Loss Limits
Dapo Willis insists every trade is born with its exit plan. The stop is fixed at structural invalidation before entry; targets are mapped to the next higher-timeframe level so reward is measurable, not wishful. He builds in partial profits at 1R–1.5R to de-risk early and let the runner hunt the 2R–3R payoff. If price violates structure, he’s out—no moving stops, no second-guessing.
He also caps the day with a hard loss limit, so one rough session can’t bleed into tilt. Two consecutive losses or a set daily drawdown trigger his kill switch, and he’s done until tomorrow. When volatility is messy, Dapo Willis reduces size and protects break-even faster, treating capital preservation as a position in itself. Defined risk turns every decision binary—follow the plan or don’t—making consistency the default rather than the exception.
In the end, Dapo Willis keeps it simple and strict: top-down bias first, entries second. He maps clean higher-timeframe structure, waits for price to revisit his confluence areas, and lets the 50–61.8% pullback do the heavy lifting. The trade either prints a clear trigger at the zone or it doesn’t—no forcing, no chasing. That clarity pushes him out of prediction mode and into a rules-driven flow where the math, not emotions, calls the shots.
Risk comes first, always. Dapo Willis fixes percent risk, sizes to structure, and refuses to widen stops—invalid is invalid. He allows volatility to guide exposure, trims during chop, and prioritizes defined exits with partials taken on the way to 2R–3R. He diversifies by instrument, strategy type, and duration to avoid stacking the same bet twice, and he protects his edge with a tight routine: weekend planning, daily reviews, and relentless journaling. When the day hits a loss limit or the trigger doesn’t print, he stands down. That’s the real “secret sauce”—a repeatable process that compounds discipline, not drama.
