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This interview features veteran trader Jason Sen on the Words of Rizdom podcast—37 years in the game, from the London Stock Exchange to the LIFFE floor—who once made a million pounds in four days during the 1992 short-sterling turmoil. He’s candid about the shift from open-outcry to screens, why most traders fail, and how discipline (not bravado) kept him relevant across eras.
You’ll learn a swing-trading strategy built on trend following and confluence—think clean trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci, and candle patterns—plus why one candle never flips a strong trend. Expect practical rules: plan the trade, use stops (risk ~1%), cut losers fast, journal your data, and ignore the “Holy Grail” myth; it’s a simple playbook Jason applies across gold, FX, oil, and indices so beginners can focus on edges, not guesses.
Jason Sen Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Philosophy: Keep It Simple, Trade What You See
Jason’s edge comes from reading clean price action and only pulling the trigger when multiple signals line up. The goal is consistency: a few high-quality setups per day, managed with strict risk rules. Here’s how that philosophy turns into action you can copy today.
- Trade with the prevailing trend; don’t fight it because of a single candle or headline.
- Make confluence mandatory: trend line + moving average + Fibonacci + a clear candle trigger.
- Take only a handful of A-setups per session; skip the rest.
- Treat trading like a business: same routine, same process, same risk.
Markets & Timeframes: Where He Hunts
He focuses on liquid beasts—gold, major FX pairs, equity indices, and oil—during London and early New York. Timeframes cascade: higher-timeframe context, lower-timeframe execution. Use this map to avoid noise and find quality.
- Build bias on the daily/4H; plan on 1H/15m; execute on 5–15m.
- If the daily trend is up and the 4H structure confirms, only long setups on the execution chart.
- Prefer symbols with tight spreads and steady volatility (XAUUSD, DXY-sensitive FX, US indices, crude).
- No trade if ADR is already fully expanded and you’re late—wait for a reset or pass.
Chart Setup: The Minimalist Toolkit
He keeps the chart uncluttered and relies on tools that many traders overcomplicate. The power is in how they confirm each other, not in any single indicator. Replicate this layout and you’ll see what he sees.
- Moving averages: 20/50 for momentum, 200 for primary trend, and dynamic S/R.
- Fibonacci retracements: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% only—draw swing-to-swing with structure.
- Trend lines and channels: at least two solid touches; ignore “wishful” lines.
- Key levels: prior day high/low, weekly levels, session opens, round numbers.
Entry Triggers: Confluence First, Candle Second
You need a location edge before you look for a candle edge. When price returns to a confluence zone in trend, wait for a clean trigger—then go. These rules keep you patient and precise.
- Longs: in an uptrend, buy a pullback into 20/50 MA + Fib 38.2–61.8 + trend line touch; trigger on bullish engulfing or strong rejection wick.
- Shorts: mirror the above in downtrends; look for a bearish engulfing or upper-wick rejection.
- If two of the three (MA/Fib/trend line) don’t align, skip it. Confluence is non-negotiable.
- No countertrend trades unless at a higher-timeframe level with a decisive reversal pattern and room to run.
Risk & Position Sizing: Survive First, Thrive Later
Longevity beats hot streaks. He risks small, scales logically, and lets math—not emotion—dictate size. Copy these guardrails to stay in the game.
- Risk 0.5%–1.0% per trade; cap daily loss at 2%—hit it and stop trading.
- Position size = (Account × %Risk) ÷ Stop distance; never widen stops to “fit” size.
- If you’re taking more than 3 trades a day, you’re likely forcing it—tighten your filter.
- Avoid overlapping exposure (e.g., gold + EURUSD both USD-sensitive) when correlations spike.
Stop Placement: Logical, Not Hopeful
Stops go where the trade thesis is proven wrong—not where it “feels” safe. Use structure and volatility to avoid death by ticks.
- Place stops beyond the most recent swing and outside the confluence zone (below for longs, above for shorts).
- Add a volatility buffer (e.g., 0.5× ATR(14) of the entry timeframe) to reduce random stop-outs.
- If the structure doesn’t offer a clear invalidation point, there is no trade.
- Never move a stop further once in the trade—exit and reassess.
Trade Management: Let Winners Work, Defend the Open Risk
He aims for asymmetric outcomes: small losers, larger winners, fewer trades. These rules lock in that distribution.
- At +1R, consider moving the stop to breakeven only if structure confirms (higher low/ lower high).
- Scale partials at 1R–2R into the first opposing level; leave a runner for trend continuation.
- Trail behind the 20/50 MA or behind swing structure; don’t trail too tight during a healthy trend.
- If momentum dies and price stalls beneath your target for multiple candles, reduce risk or flatten.
Exits & Targets: Structure Sets the Destination
Targets come from the chart, not round hopes. Use measured moves and prior levels so exits are repeatable.
- First target: prior swing high/low or the next clean supply/demand zone.
- Second target: measured move equal to the depth of the pullback or channel width.
- If price impulsively breaks your first target with volume, hold the remainder to the next HTF level.
- If price closes decisively through your stop level (for countertrend attempts), abandon the idea—no “revenge re-entry.”
News & Volatility Filters: Pick Your Battles
He respects macro catalysts because they distort both spreads and structure. The aim isn’t to predict news—just to avoid landmines.
- 15 minutes before/after tier-1 releases (CPI, NFP, FOMC/major central bank, US PMI/ISM), avoid new entries on short timeframes.
- If already in a trade pre-news, either reduce size or move to breakeven if the structure is fragile.
- After the spike, wait for a fresh base or a retest of the pre-news level before new entries.
- Skip sessions with abnormally thin liquidity or holiday conditions.
Daily Routine: The Repeatable Edge
Consistency is the strategy. A simple pre-market checklist, a tight execution window, and immediate post-trade review compress the learning loop.
- Pre-market (30–45 min): mark daily/4H trend, draw key levels, set alerts at confluence zones.
- Session window: focus on London open to NY lunch; stop trading once plan is executed or the market turns choppy.
- Post-market (15–20 min): screenshot winners and losers, annotate entries, exits, reasons, and emotions.
- Weekly: tag trades by setup type; cut the bottom-performing pattern for the next week.
Psychology & Discipline: Rules Over Ego
His calm comes from knowing the next trade is just one of many. You’re running a process, not proving you’re right.
- Define “no-trade” conditions (e.g., 3 consecutive losses, broken internet, poor focus) and stick to them.
- Use alerts instead of staring; FOMO shrinks when rules tell you exactly where to act.
- If you deviate from the plan, halve size on the next trade and earn full size back with 3 disciplined executions.
- Celebrate perfect process, not P&L—grade every trade A/B/C on rule adherence.
The Playbook: A Turn-Key Setup You Can Use Today
This is the bread-and-butter pullback in trend. It’s boring—and that’s why it works over time.
- Identify trend: price above 200 MA (uptrend) or below (downtrend) on the 1H.
- Mark the zone: draw Fib on the latest impulse; watch 38.2–61.8% overlapping the 20/50 MA and a clear trend line.
- Wait for trigger: bullish/bearish engulfing or strong rejection wick off the zone on 5–15m.
- Execute: market/limit entry; stop beyond swing + volatility buffer; initial target at prior swing; leave runner if momentum persists.
Advanced Filters: Make Good Trades Great
When multiple edges say “go,” size and conviction can be slightly higher—within your risk cap.
- Confluence score (0–3): +1 for MA alignment, +1 for Fib alignment, +1 for trend line/channel touch; requires≥2 to act.
- Session timing: prefer entries in the first 2 hours of London/NY when ranges expand.
- Correlation check: avoid stacking USD-heavy trades unless your thesis is the same driver.
- Structure quality: higher highs + shallow pullbacks (uptrend) or lower lows + shallow rallies (downtrend) get priority.
Common Mistakes to Avoid: Hard Pass List
Cutting errors is free alpha. These are traps Jason’s rules are designed to dodge.
- Entering on a single candle without a location edge (no confluence, no structure).
- Chasing breakouts far from the 20/50 MA; wait for a retest or leave it.
- Moving stops wider after entry or averaging down in trends.
- Trading during dead liquidity or right into tier-1 news without a plan.
Size Risk First: Small, Consistent Bets Beat Big Hero Trades
Jason Sen says the fastest way to survive markets is to make losing harmless and winning inevitable. That starts with sizing: risk a tiny, fixed slice of equity per trade so a bad run barely dents the account. He’s blunt that “hero trades” are just ego with a ticker—one oversized position can wipe out weeks of good decisions. By keeping the size small and repeatable, he stacks many modest R-multiples instead of hunting for lottery tickets.
Jason Sen also ties size to the quality of the setup, not to how “confident” you feel on a given day. When volatility expands, he shrinks size and widens stops to hold structure; when markets are calm, he nudges size within a capped risk budget. He treats daily loss limits as brakes, not suggestions, so discipline doesn’t get negotiated mid-trade. The result is a smooth equity curve built on math and patience, not adrenaline.
Trade the Trend, Not Your Ego: Confluence Over Predictions
Jason Sen keeps it simple: if the higher timeframe is pointing up, he looks for longs; if it’s pointing down, he hunts shorts. He says predictions are vanity, while trend is evidence, so he waits for the price to come back to a “good location” before acting. That location is built from confluence—trend line + moving averages + a clean level—so a single candle doesn’t get to overrule the bigger picture.
Jason Sen’s trigger is the last step, not the first. He wants a rejection or engulfing candle at the confluence zone, then he executes with a predefined stop where the thesis dies. If two or more elements of confluence aren’t present, he passes—no exceptions. The payoff is fewer trades with higher quality, less second-guessing, and a process that scales across gold, FX, indices, and oil.
Let Volatility Drive Allocation: Adjust Stops, Targets, and Size
Jason Sen builds his risk around the market’s current speed, not a fixed template. When ATR or average range expands, he widens stops to logical structure and cuts position size so the dollar risk stays constant. In quieter conditions, he tightens stops, takes a slightly larger size, and accepts smaller targets. The idea, Jason says, is to make each trade’s R risk consistent, regardless of how wild or calm the tape feels.
Jason Sen also lets volatility shape targets and management. Strong, impulsive moves get room to breathe and a runner left on; choppy sessions call for quicker partials at the first opposing level. He avoids stacking correlated positions when volatility clusters around the same driver, keeping portfolio VAR in check. By letting volatility dictate allocation, he preserves an edge through different regimes without rewriting his whole playbook.
Diversify Smartly: Mix Underlyings, Timeframes, and Strategy Types
Jason Sen spreads his bets so one idea or market doesn’t control the day. He rotates across gold, major FX, indices, and oil, choosing the clearest trend and cleanest confluence instead of forcing trades in a single symbol. He also mixes timeframes—daily for bias, 4H for structure, 15m for execution—so signals don’t hinge on one noisy lens. If two candidates share the same driver (e.g., a USD move), he’ll pick the best chart and skip the rest to avoid duplicate risk.
Jason Sen diversifies by setup category too: pullback-in-trend is the bread-and-butter, but he’ll use breakout–retest and occasional mean-reversion at major higher-timeframe levels when structure justifies it. He caps total open risk and limits correlated exposure, treating a basket of USD trades as one position when volatility clusters. Entries are staggered with alerts so timing isn’t guesswork, and losers aren’t allowed to “average” into a theme. The aim is a portfolio of small, independent edges—each sized modestly—so no single trade can wreck the week.
Process Is the Edge: Rules, Routines, and Relentless Trade Journaling
Jason Sen treats trading like a repeatable craft, not a mood. He walks in with a checklist—higher-timeframe bias, key levels, alerts, and risk caps—then executes only when his rules say yes. Every decision is prewritten: entry trigger, stop location, partials, and invalidation. The result is fewer impulsive trades and more consistency across choppy weeks.
After the session, Jason Sen becomes his own coach. He screenshots each trade, tags the setup, logs R multiple, and grades rule-adherence so the data exposes what actually works. Weekly, he cuts the lowest-performing pattern and doubles down on the one with the cleanest stats. That relentless loop—plan, execute, journal, refine—turns process into the real edge.
In the end, Jason Sen’s edge is refreshingly unglamorous: read the tape, respect the trend, and only act when multiple signals agree. He built his reputation on skill sharpened by wild markets—like making a million pounds in four days during the 1992 short-sterling chaos—but his takeaway from that era isn’t bravado; it’s discipline and survival over time. He’s a swing-first operator who scans liquid markets daily, prefers risking a few dozen pips to make multiples of that, and accepts that today’s ranges often require holding overnight.
Mechanically, he keeps it simple on purpose: trend lines, moving averages (with the 100-hour often in mind), Fibonacci retracements, and clean candle patterns—plus a bias to buy support in uptrends or buy the break above prior highs; the mirror applies for downtrends. He wants roughly “three” pieces of confluence to lean in, because none of us knows the next tick, and the job is to find an edge, size it modestly, and execute. When volatility fades or a market chops sideways (like the dollar has), he simply steps back instead of forcing trades. And beyond charts, the longest-lasting lesson is humility: luck, timing, and size can lift you—but arrogance can cut you down—so regrouping, managing risk, and treating the craft like a business is what sustains a decades-long career.
