Table of Contents
Steve Miley—The Market Chartist, ex-Merrill Lynch/Bank of America and Credit Suisse technical analyst, and now co-founder at TradeDay—sits down for a straight-talk interview on how he actually analyzes and trades. From London trading floors to retail mentorship, Steve explains why he stripped away “analysis paralysis,” returned to clean price action, and built a process that fits his psychology and time horizon. If you’re a newer trader wondering what really matters (and what doesn’t), this convo is gold.
You’ll learn Steve Miley’s keep-it-simple chart playbook (trend, structure, key levels), why Fibonacci keeps earning a permanent spot on his screens, and how he manages risk by matching strategy to temperament—favoring swing/position trades confirmed on daily and 4H, executed on 15–30 minute charts. Just as importantly, he gets real about psychology: avoiding tilt, using recovery-style discipline to stay within risk limits, and letting winners run instead of scratching profits too early. Read on to pick up a strategy you can actually apply without drowning in indicators.
Steve Miley Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Lens: Trend, Structure, Levels
Steve Miley keeps the chart clean and the focus tight: read the trend, map the structure, and trade from the levels that matter. This section explains the simple backbone he uses to avoid noise and find asymmetric ideas fast.
- Define trend on the Daily and 4H; only trade with that higher-timeframe bias intraday.
- Mark swing highs/lows, prior day high/low, weekly open, and market session opens; treat them as decision points.
- Draw one primary structure tool only (e.g., trendline or channel) per instrument—remove it if it stops respecting price.
- Keep indicators minimal: Fibonacci retracements, 50/200 EMA (optional) to visualize rhythm—no stack of oscillators.
- If price is choppy on Daily/4H (overlapping candles, no clean swings), skip or halve risk until structure returns.
Timeframes & Chart Setup
Steve aligns the big picture with execution, so he’s never guessing against the tide. You’ll see how the higher frames set the bias while the lower frames give him precise timing.
- Top-down: Daily → 4H to set bias; 15m/30m for execution; 5m only to refine risk, never to change bias.
- If Daily and 4H disagree, stand down or use half size until they realign.
- Limit watchlist to 3–5 instruments; remove any name that hasn’t respected your levels in the last 2 weeks.
- Save a “clean template” layout (no drawings) and an “annotated” layout; reset to clean weekly to prevent bias creep.
- Pre-load Fibs from the most recent swing leg only; delete old Fibs once the swing breaks.
Entry Triggers: Pullback, Break, Retest
He doesn’t predict; he waits for the market to show its hand, then steps in with tight invalidation. Here are the exact triggers that keep him consistent.
- Pullback Entry (trend): Enter between 38.2%–61.8% Fib with structure confluence (prior high/low or trendline).
- Break & Retest: Wait for a close beyond the level on the 15m/30m, then buy/sell the first retest; invalidation = back inside.
- Continuation: If the trend is strong (clean higher highs/lows), enter on the inside-bar break or engulfing in the direction of the trend.
- No fill if spread/volatility pushes stop > 1.25× your planned risk distance—skip instead of forcing it.
- First test only rule: if a level has been tested twice, it’s weaker; require better RR or move on.
Stop Placement & Position Sizing
Steve treats stop placement as a location decision, not a dollar decision. This part shows how to anchor risk to what the chart is actually saying.
- Place stop beyond the invalidation: below the swing low (long) / above swing high (short) plus a small ATR buffer (0.25–0.5 ATR-15m).
- Risk a fixed fraction of equity (0.25%–0.75%) per trade; size the position from the stop distance, not vice versa.
- If the stop must exceed 1.5× average stop for that instrument/timeframe, cut size to keep dollar risk constant.
- Never move a stop farther once in; only tighten after structure confirms (see management rules).
- If slippage widens fill > 0.5R from plan, flatten and re-enter only if setup still valid.
Trade Management: Scale, Trail, Exit
He aims to let the market pay for the trade quickly and then ride the move without micromanaging. Use these rules to avoid emotional tinkering.
- First scale at +1R (take 25–33% off) and move stop to breakeven only after a structure close beyond the entry trigger.
- Trail behind swing structure or parabolic SAR-style manual steps: move stop to the most recent confirmed higher low/lower high on 15m.
- Use partial exits at Fib extensions (127.2%, 161.8%) or prior Daily/4H levels; leave a runner to the next HTF target.
- If momentum stalls (three 15m closes against your bias near a target), bank another 25–50% and trail tighter.
- Hard exit if price closes back inside the broken level you used for entry; narrative invalidated.
Session Choice & Instruments
Steve aligns strategy with liquidity windows so follow-through probability is on his side. Pick your battles where the order flow is richest.
- Prioritize London for FX/indices and New York for indices/majors; avoid the midday lull unless managing runners.
- Two primary instruments for focus (e.g., S&P 500 index future/CFD, GBP/USD), plus one backup when A-setups are absent.
- If the instrument ignores your levels for three consecutive sessions, bench it for the week.
- Earnings or macro prints? Trade only post-release once the first impulse and retrace are printed; size half on the first post-news entry.
Playbook Patterns Steve Repeats
He favors repeatable patterns over novelty. Lock in these patterns and you’ll always know what you’re looking for before the bell.
- Trend Pullback to 50% with Level Confluence → limit/stop entry, stop below swing, target prior high then 127.2% extension.
- Channel Break + Retest → enter on retest close; add if the next swing prints a higher low/lower high.
- False Break Reclaim at a daily level → fade back inside with a tight stop beyond wick extreme; target the opposite side of the range.
- Opening Drive → First Pullback in session direction; abandon if the first pullback breaks pre-drive swing.
Checklist: Pre-Market Prep
Steve’s routine keeps him objective and fast at the open. This checklist ensures you show up with a plan, not a hope.
- Mark Daily/4H bias, top three levels, and one primary scenario per instrument (trend continuation or mean reversion).
- Write one sentence per scenario: “If price does X at level Y, I do Z.”
- Set price alerts 10–15 pips/points before key levels to avoid screen-staring and late chases.
- Confirm economic calendar; during high-impact releases, be flat or sized at ≤0.25% risk.
Checklist: In-Trade Behavior
Execution hygiene separates pros from dabblers. These rules keep your decision-making crisp once you’re live.
- No adding to losers—ever; adds only on structure-confirmed higher low/lower high with original thesis intact.
- Maximum two management actions per hour per trade (scale or trail); no itchy fingers.
- If you take two consecutive full-R losses in a session, stop trading that instrument for the day.
- Journal entry, reason, management, outcome in four lines; screenshot before and after.
Psychology & Discipline Rules
Steve builds his edge around staying power, not perfection. This section gives you guardrails to protect confidence and capital.
- Use a daily loss cap of 2R–3R; hit it and you’re done—review, walk, reset.
- Rate every trade A/B/C beforehand; take only A/B during choppy conditions.
- Protect confidence: open the week with a half-size trade unless an A+ setup prints.
- If you feel tilted (rushed breathing, FOMO thoughts), enforce a 15-minute timeout and re-read the scenario sentence.
Data-Driven Review
He treats review as a strategy laboratory. Here’s how to compound learning without drowning in spreadsheets.
- Tag trades by pattern (pullback, break-retest, reclaim), session, and context (trend/mean-reversion).
- Track win rate, avg R, and time-to-target by tag; prune any tag with <0.3 expectancy over the last 30 trades.
- Once per week, replay three winners and three losers bar-by-bar on 15m to check if entries/exits matched rules.
- Promote the highest-expectancy tag to “Focus Pattern of the Week” and actively pass on setups that don’t match it.
Risk Alignment to Personality
Steve’s edge works because it fits him—measured tempo, clean charts, rule-based action. Make sure your parameters match your temperament.
- If you struggle to sit through pullbacks, tighten to the 38.2%–50% zone and reduce size so you can hold the runner.
- If you over-trade, limit to one setup type per day and two tickets max per instrument.
- If you cut winners, automate partials at +1R and hide the runner’s stop behind structure, not P&L.
Putting It All Together: A Sample Plan
This is how Steve would frame a clean day: bias first, trigger second, management third. Copy the structure, adjust the numbers to your instrument.
- Bias: Daily/4H up on S&P; plan to buy pullbacks into prior day high or 50% of the London-NY impulse.
- Trigger: 15m bullish engulfing at the level, stop 0.3 ATR-15m below swing low.
- Targets: scale 25% at +1R, 25% at prior high, trail the rest to 161.8% extension using swing lows.
- Risk: 0.5% per idea; if the first trade loses, take one more only if the structure is unchanged.
Set Position Size by Structure, Not Hope or P&L Swings
Steve Miley builds size from the chart’s facts, not from feelings about the last trade. Start with the invalidation point first—where the idea is objectively wrong—then measure the distance and let that dictate how many units you can carry. A fixed risk percentage per trade keeps the dollar risk constant while structure determines position size, so big stops mean smaller size and tight stops allow a touch more. This keeps you from “averaging pain” or chasing to make back losses.
He also aligns size with volatility, so you aren’t oversized in fast conditions or undersized when the tape is calm. Use an ATR-based buffer beyond the swing to avoid death by noise, then compute position size off that buffered stop. If your required stop makes risk exceed your cap, cut size, or skip, Steve Miley’s rule is that no setup earns a pass to break risk limits. Over time, this turns sizing into a mechanical step that protects capital and confidence, so your winners speak louder than your emotions.
Trade With Higher-Timeframe Bias; Execute Pullbacks, Retests, and Continuations
Steve Miley starts every decision by checking the Daily and 4H bias, then only looks for entries that move in the same direction. If those frames conflict, he stands down or halves in size until they sync—no hero trades against the tide. With bias set, he hunts pullbacks into meaningful levels like prior highs/lows, 50% retracements, or clean trendlines, then waits for a confirming candle on the 15m/30m before committing.
When a level breaks, Steve Miley prefers the first retest over the initial breakout to keep stops tight and invalidation clear. In strong trends, he’ll take simple continuation triggers—inside-bar breaks or engulfing candles—in the direction of the move. If spread or volatility pushes the stop beyond his acceptable distance, he skips rather than forcing an entry. The result is a routine: bias first, location second, trigger third—so execution stays mechanical and confidence stays intact.
Let Volatility Dictate Stops, Targets, and Session-by-Session Aggression
Steve Miley adjusts his risk to the tape, not the other way around. When volatility expands, he widens stops with an ATR-based buffer and cuts position size so the dollar risk stays constant. Targets stretch with the environment too—using Fib extensions or prior HTF levels scaled to the current range size. In quiet markets, he tightens everything: smaller stops, closer first targets, and a quicker move to breakeven after structure confirms.
He also adapts session aggression to volatility regimes. If London or New York opens with wide ranges and momentum, Steve Miley permits one add-on after structure confirms; in sluggish sessions, he caps himself at one clean attempt. A setup that requires an unusually large stop relative to recent ATR gets passed or sized down to near token risk. This way, volatility becomes a throttle for trade frequency, size, and expectations—keeping the game winnable regardless of the day’s speed.
Diversify by Instrument, Setup, and Holding Duration—not by Indicators.
Steve Miley spreads risk across what actually matters: different markets, different entry patterns, and different time-in-trade. Instead of stacking more indicators on the same idea, he rotates between a couple of uncorrelated instruments and a small set of repeatable setups. If S&P and GBP/USD are both messy, he benches one and looks for a cleaner read elsewhere rather than forcing overlap. Diversification for Steve isn’t five versions of the same breakout—it’s a pullback in one market, a reclaim in another, and a break-retest in a third.
He also diversifies by holding duration so the P&L isn’t tied to a single tempo. One trade might be an intraday continuation with tight management, while another is a multi-session swing anchored to the Daily structure. Steve Miley caps exposure per instrument and per setup type to prevent over-concentration, and he cuts a strategy that loses edge instead of adding new indicators to “fix” it. The result is a portfolio of edges, not signals that argue with each other on the same chart.
Follow Mechanics Over Prediction: Predefine Entries, Exits, and Invalidation
Steve Miley treats prediction as a distraction and mechanics as the edge. Before the session, he writes a one-line scenario for each market—“If price does X at level Y, I do Z”—so execution becomes a yes/no decision. Entry, stop, and first target are set in advance from the structure and ATR, not vibes, so when the price arrives, he’s clicking a plan, not improvising.
Once in the trade, Steve Miley follows the script with minimal discretion. He scales at predefined milestones, trails behind confirmed structure, and exits when the market closes back through his invalidation level—no bargaining. If he breaks a rule, it’s documented and penalized with a reduced size on the next trade. The result is consistency: a process that makes money from repeating actions, not from being right about the future.
Steve Miley’s big takeaway is to simplify until the chart actually speaks—strip away indicator clutter, kill analysis paralysis, and focus on trend, structure, and a handful of levels that matter. He starts from the Daily, drills to 4H for context, then executes on 15–30 minute charts so entries line up with the higher-timeframe story. He trusts Fibonacci retracements because they’ve proven themselves over decades on his screens, yet he stays open-minded and keeps learning as markets and tools evolve.
Just as crucial, Steve matches strategy to personality and time horizon. After feeling the psychological strain of fast intraday trading, he moved to swing/position trades so his execution could remain disciplined and unemotional—avoiding tilt and letting the analysis lead. He underscores that different trading styles demand different skills; find your lane, specialize, and don’t force a style that fights your wiring. Finally, Steve highlights the parts many retail traders miss: macro context, risk management, and the mentoring that builds durable habits—areas he now emphasizes daily to help traders become fundable for the long run.
