Table of Contents
In this interview, Carmine—a short-term S&P 500 futures scalper—breaks down how he reads order flow, paces the tape, and treats himself more like a risk manager than a typical trader. Filmed on the Titans of Tomorrow channel, the conversation digs into why his edge isn’t a magic indicator but a repeatable process that adapts to changing volatility. If you’re new to futures or just tired of chasing chart patterns, this is a clean look at how a professional structures decisions in real time.
You’ll learn why win rate is a vanity metric, how to standardize dollar risk and flex position size to keep losses uniform, and when widening stops or delaying entries beats forcing trades. Carmine also lays out his three pillars—context, location, confirmation—so you can spot A-setups, read key levels that don’t show on candlesticks, and use volatility to your advantage without gambling through news spikes. By the end, you’ll have a clear, beginner-friendly framework to build a trader’s mindset that survives rough patches and compounds when conditions flip.
Carmine Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
The Core Edge: Context → Location → Confirmation
Before clicking buy or sell, Carmine organizes the chart like a map: first the big picture, then the exact spot, then the signal. This section turns that philosophy into a repeatable checklist you can run in minutes.
- Context (HTF): Start on the daily → 4H → 1H to tag trend, volatility regime (ATR rising/falling), and key composite levels (prior day/week high/low, VWAP/AVWAP, value area).
- Location (MTF/LTF): Mark two to four “decision zones” only (e.g., prior day high ±0.25%, session VWAP bands, overnight imbalance). If the price isn’t in a zone, do nothing.
- Confirmation (LTF): Execute on M1–M5 only when you see a fresh reaction: impulse into the zone + stall + rejection (wick + delta shift or absorption).
- Binary gate: No trade unless all three align. If one is missing, step aside.
- Time filter: First 90 minutes of the session and the last 60 tend to give the cleanest context shifts—prioritize these.
Risk First, Always: Position, Stop, and Payoff
He treats himself like a risk manager who happens to trade. Here’s the exact way to keep losers uniform and winners meaningful.
- Fixed dollar risk per idea: Predefine a constant R (e.g., $250). Every trade sizes into that risk, never the other way around.
- Stop = invalidation, not discomfort: Place it just beyond the structure that, if tagged, proves the idea wrong (beyond swing high/low or the opposing side of the zone).
- Minimum R multiple: Do not take setups that cannot reasonably pay ≥2R to the first target based on recent swing ranges.
- Dynamic size: If stop distance doubles due to volatility, halve the size to maintain the same dollar risk.
- Hard loss cap: Max 3R down or 3 losses/day—stop trading immediately. Tomorrow’s variance will still be there.
Volatility Rules: When to Press, When to Chill
Not all days are created equal. Carmine scales aggression with volatility so he can survive chop and capitalize on expansion.
- Regime read: If the last 10-day ATR > 20-day ATR and VIX (or your proxy) is up day-over-day, label the day “expand”—allow wider stops and larger partials.
- Chop detector: Three+ failed breaks of the same level within an hour → mark as range-day; fade edges only, kill momentum plays.
- Spread targets: In expand days, first target = 1.5–2.0× the recent 5-bar average swing; in compress days, bank at 1.0–1.25× and trail tighter.
- Cooldown trigger: Two back-to-back scratch/−0.5R outcomes in low vol → reduce risk per trade by 50% for the next two attempts.
A+ Setup Template: Reversal at Prior Day Extremes
His highest-quality trades often appear where liquidity pools: yesterday’s extremes. Use this template to avoid B- and C-grade impulses.
- Prereqs: Price tags PDH/PDL and fails to close beyond it on 5-minute; delta/footprint shows absorption; wicks print against the failed break.
- Entry: Limit or stop entry back inside the prior day range after the failure bar closes; avoid chasing the very first wick.
- Stop: 1–2 ticks (or minimal buffer) beyond the failed extreme.
- Targets: T1 = session VWAP or midpoint; T2 = opposite side of the intraday range; trail remainder behind swing structure.
- Invalidation: A clean 5-minute close back through the extreme cancels the thesis—exit without negotiation.
Breakout Continuation: Go With Strength, Not Hope
When range genuinely resolves, he rides the move with structure—not hope. Follow these rules to filter real breaks from fake ones.
- Build-up: Look for 3+ higher lows (for upside) packed under resistance, shrinking pullbacks, and rising cumulative delta.
- Trigger: 5-minute close outside the structure and a hold above the breakout level on the retest (no immediate full take-back).
- Entry: First pullback to the breakout level or to a rising 9–20 EMA cluster after the retest holds.
- Stop: Under the retest low (upside) or above it (downside).
- Management: If price extends 1R quickly, scale 30–50%, move stop to breakeven only after a higher low forms above the level.
Order Flow Tells: Tape Clues That Actually Matter
He uses a few reliable tape signals instead of drowning in numbers. Keep it tight and practical.
- Absorption > aggression: Repeated large bids/offers that don’t move price through a level signal a likely fade.
- Pulling & stacking: Watch for size that appears to attract price (stacking), then vanishes before touch (pulling)—avoid entries into that.
- Delta divergences: Price makes a marginal new high/low on weakening cumulative delta → prioritize mean-revert back into range.
- Speed bursts: Sudden uptick in print speed right after reclaiming a key level often marks the start of the impulse leg—lean in with smaller initial risk and add on the first pullback.
News & Event Hygiene: Don’t Be a Hero
Event risk can nuke good trades. Here’s how he keeps the edge intact around catalysts.
- Hard blackout: No entries 2 minutes before to 3 minutes after tier-1 data (CPI, NFP, FOMC, Fed chair).
- If in a trade: Reduce to runner size pre-release or flatten if unrewarded; never widen stops into news.
- Post-news: Wait for the first coherent 5-minute structure (higher low/lower high) before taking continuation or fade.
- Calendar habit: Tag each session with “clean” or “noisy” at the open so expectations match reality.
Scaling & Adds: Only When Risk Improves
Ads can help or harm. He adds that only if the idea’s risk actually drops with new information.
- Add-on rule: Add only after price moves +1R in favor and a fresh structure forms that allows a tighter stop than the original.
- Never add to losers: No exceptions. If the idea’s wrong, pay the ticket and reset.
- Stair-step trail: Move stop under/over each confirmed swing as you scale, not on arbitrary dollar PnL.
- Cap exposure: Max 1.5–2.0× initial risk across all adds; beyond that, you’re no longer improving R-multiple, you’re just getting bigger.
Day Structure & Timing: When He Shows Up
Time-of-day edge matters. These are the session behaviors he leans on.
- Prime windows: Focus on the open drive to first pullback, the mid-session reclaim around VWAP, and the final hour trend continuation or mean reversion.
- Two-strike rule early: If the first two trades of the day are losers, stand down until the last hour or call it.
- Lunch compression: If the market stalls around VWAP with overlapping bars for 45+ minutes, take only A+ signals back into range edges.
Journaling & Metrics: Make Edge Measurable
He tracks what repeats and cuts what doesn’t. Use these metrics to tighten your loop.
- Tag every trade: Setup (REV-PDH/PDL, BO-CONT, VWAP-REVERT), volatility regime (expand/compress), and time block.
- Three KPIs: Win rate by setup, average R per setup, and paydown (average loss size vs. planned). Anything with < +0.5R expectancy gets benched.
- Screenshot pairs: Pre-trade markup + post-trade outcome with notes on context/location/confirmation—review weekly.
- Monthly rule change limit: One process change per month, so you can attribute improvements to a single lever.
Mindset & Pace: Professional Boredom Beats Thrill
Emotional regulation is part of the system. These habits keep the operator steady.
- Pre-market script: 5 lines spoken out loud—today’s bias, do-nothing conditions, A+ location, maximum losses, and reminder that flat is a position.
- Micro-breaks: After any full-R loss, step away for two minutes; reset breathing and screens before scanning again.
- Process over P&L: Judge the day by checklists completed and rules followed. Good process + bad outcome = still a “green” day.
- End-of-day shutdown: Flatten, export journal, set tomorrow’s levels, close platform—no revenge scouting after hours.
Size Risk First: Fixed-Dollar Positioning That Survives Losing Streaks
Carmine makes one thing painfully clear: your edge dies the moment your risk size floats. He fixes a dollar amount per idea and then adjusts contract size to fit the stop, not the other way around. That keeps every loss the same size, whether volatility is sleepy or wild. When the market stretches its invalidation distance, he simply trades smaller, so one bad read can’t dent the week.
He also sets a daily pain threshold and respects it like a fire alarm—hit it, stop trading. Carmine targets at least a two-to-one payoff before he even thinks about entry, ensuring the winners can finance the inevitable losers. If the first two trades don’t behave, he cuts risk for the next attempt or waits for the best window. This calm, fixed-dollar framework lets him keep executing the plan when emotions want to rewrite the rules.
Let Volatility Drive Aggression: Expand When Hot, Chill When Cold
Carmine treats volatility like a traffic light—green to press, yellow to size down, red to step aside. When ranges expand and the tape is moving cleanly, he allows wider stops but keeps the same fixed dollar risk by trading a smaller size. That shift keeps the strategy alive while still giving a fast market the room it needs to breathe. In slow, overlapping sessions, Carmine lowers expectations, takes profits quicker, and refuses to force momentum trades that aren’t there.
He calibrates his aggression by what price is actually doing, not what he hopes it will do. If the first two trades in a low-vol window scratch or slip, he cuts risk in half and waits for the structure to reset. On expansion days, he leans into continuation after clean retests rather than chasing the first breakout wick. Carmine’s rule is simple: volatility sets the tempo, and his position sizing dances to that beat.
Diversify Edges: Underlying, Strategy, And Trade Duration Work Together
Carmine doesn’t bet the month on a single flavor of setup. He spreads risk across different underlyings, alternates between mean-reversion and breakout structures, and varies holding time from quick scalps to session swings. That mix reduces the chance that one market condition shuts him down. When indices chop, he may lean on reversal plays; when they trend, he pivots to continuation with defined invalidations.
He also staggers timeframes so correlation doesn’t sneak in through the back door. A scalp in the morning open, a VWAP reversion at lunch, and an end-of-day trend hold aren’t the same trade wearing different clothes. Carmine reviews which buckets actually carry the P&L and trims the rest, keeping only edges that pay in today’s regime. The result is a portfolio of behaviors—each small, consistent, and together robust—so one cold streak can’t sink the ship.
Trade Mechanics Over Prediction: Rules, Checklists, And Measured Execution
Carmine isn’t trying to be the market’s fortune-teller—he’s the mechanic under the hood. He runs a pre-trade checklist: context, location, confirmation, risk, and payoff. If any box is blank, the trade is dead on arrival. Entries come from rehearsed triggers, not vibes, and he timestamps each decision so he can audit it later without excuses.
During the trade, Carmine follows a scripted playbook: scale partials at predefined landmarks, trail behind structure, and never move a stop farther. If the price is invalid, he exits immediately and logs the miss; if it behaves, he lets the system breathe instead of grabbing pennies. He scores the session by process compliance, not P&L, because good mechanics compound even when outcomes are noisy. Prediction is optional—execution is mandatory.
Favor Defined Risk, Respect Undefined Risk: Keep Tails From Killing You
Carmine separates trades where risk is capped from those where tails can explode, and he sizes them like different species. If the stop is clean and structure-based, he treats it as defined risk and aims for at least a two-to-one payout before entry. When slippage risk is elevated—news windows, thin books, or fast tapes—he assumes undefined risk and cuts size to a token or stands down entirely. He never widens a stop mid-trade; if the thesis breaks, he’s out and ready for the next A-setup.
He also avoids stacking correlated exposure that turns one tail event into a portfolio punch. Carmine takes partials at objective landmarks (VWAP, prior day’s midpoint) to de-risk early and let runners handle the rest. If volatility regime shifts mid-session, he recalibrates: smaller size, closer targets, same dollar risk. The philosophy is simple—protect the downside with rules so the upside has time to show up.
Carmine’s playbook boils down to professional boredom over bravado: fix your dollar risk, let volatility dictate your tempo, and only act when context, location, and confirmation line up. He treats stops as invalidations—not feelings—and refuses to take trades that can’t reasonably pay two-to-one. When ranges expand, he gives price room while keeping the same dollar risk; when markets compress, he takes profits quicker and cuts attempts fast. Across the session, he rotates between reversal and continuation templates, diversifies by underlying and duration, and never stacks correlated exposure that turns one bad print into a portfolio hit.
He measures what repeats. Every idea is tagged by setup, regime, and time-of-day; anything that fails to produce a positive expectancy is benched. Around news, he stands down or trims to a runner—no widening stops, no heroics. Adds only happen after progress and only if risk improves. And if the day doesn’t cooperate, he closes the platform and lives to trade the conditions that truly fit his edge. That’s the lesson from Carmine: protect the downside with hard rules, show up when the market invites you, and let a simple, testable process compound over months—not minutes.
