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On this episode of Words of Rizdom, the host sits down with Joe Olashugba—the first-ever guest of the show—an obsessive, fundamentals-driven trader who went from sixth-form dropout to Mayfair floors, hedge-fund hallways, and author of the Market Macro Hub newsletter. Joe Olashugba’s story stands out: disciplined faith, zero-distraction routines, and a grind that took him from working for free at 18 to advising on AI-meets-finance data strategy while building deep macro chops. If you care about trading with purpose and rigor, this is the guy you study.
In this piece, you’ll learn Joe Olashugba’s practical playbook: how he engineers an environment for “deep flow,” the specific habits that keep temptation at bay, and the tools he uses to track performance without noise. We’ll unpack how he connects global macro (inflation, bonds, employment prints) to trade selection, why discipline beats prediction, and how to network your way into real insight—then convert it into a repeatable strategy other traders can apply from day one.
Joe Olashugba Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Philosophy: Build a Macro Narrative First
Before Joe thinks about entries, he builds a clean story about what’s driving the market. That narrative connects policy, growth, inflation, and positioning to a specific FX or rates expression—and it keeps him from getting whipsawed by random intraday noise.
- Define the regime in one line: “Growth ↑/↓, Inflation ↑/↓, Policy Tightening/Easing, Liquidity ↑/↓; risk-on/off = ?”
- Write the trade thesis as a cause→effect chain (e.g., “Sticky services inflation → higher for longer → front-end yields ↑ → USD bid vs. low-carry FX”).
- Map catalysts that could prove the narrative wrong (data, policy, earnings, geopolitics) and pre-commit to flipping if they hit.
- Keep “strong opinions, weakly held”: update the story immediately when fresh data breaks a link in the chain.
Market Selection: Rates & FX Where Policy Flows First
Joe gravitates to G4 rates and major FX because policy signals show up fastest there. That makes the macro story tradeable and reviewable week to week.
- Pick two “core” pairs that express the macro spread (e.g., USDJPY for rate differential/BoJ divergence; EURUSD for growth/policy spread).
- Choose one backup expression (e.g., 2s10s, Eurodollars/SONIA, or DXY) to sanity-check the FX view.
- If the story is policy-driven, prefer rate-differential pairs; if it’s growth-risk, prefer beta pairs (EUR, AUD, CAD) against the funding leg.
- Avoid third-tier crosses unless liquidity and narrative clarity are both high.
Pre-Trade Prep: Calendar, Scenarios, and “If–Then”s
Execution starts days before the click. Joe blocks the macro calendar, writes bull/base/bear paths, and sets invalidation before data prints so emotions can’t hijack decisions.
- Build a weekly one-pager: key prints (CPI, jobs, PMIs), central bank speakers, auctions; add expected direction and why it matters.
- For each print, script If–Then rules: “If core CPI m/m > 0.4% → keep USD longs through London close; if ≤ 0.2% → flatten into NY open.”
- Tag each catalyst with: probability, impact, and position action (add/trim/flip/ignore).
- Schedule “no-trade” windows (e.g., 10 minutes pre-print; first 5 minutes post-print) to avoid impulse fills.
Set up Definition: Price That Expresses the Narrative
Joe wants clean levels that line up with the story—no forcing it. He uses simple structures: previous session highs/lows, weekly opens, VWAP/AVWAP, and obvious trend pivots that institutions see.
- Only take setups that express the macro view (e.g., USDJPY pullback to prior week’s value area in a BoJ-dovish regime).
- Mark three levels per instrument: trigger, add, and invalidation. If the price can’t respect invalidation, there is no trade.
- Entries: use limit-on-pullback into value with clear rejection; avoid chasing unless a scheduled catalyst rewrites the regime.
- For breakouts, trade retests rather than first touch; if no retest within two sessions, stand down.
Risk & Sizing: Volatility Sets the Bet
Sizing is volatility-first, not conviction-first. Joe scales exposure to the instrument’s recent range so a normal day doesn’t equal a blown thesis.
- Risk per idea: 0.25–0.75% of equity; cap total correlated risk ≤ 1.5%.
- Position size = (account_risk) / (stop_distance). Use ADR/ATR(14) on the timeframe you execute to anchor the stop distance.
- Invalidation comes from narrative breaks + level breaks, not just several pips.
- Never add to losers. Add only at pre-planned adds after fresh confirmation (e.g., catalyst aligns + level holds again).
Trade Management: Scale, Protect, and Let It Work
Joe aims to get paid while he’s right, not only at the end. He scales out at structural targets but keeps a runner if the macro wind still blows his way.
- First take-profit at 0.75–1.0× risk; move stop to breakeven only after structure shifts in your favor (e.g., HH/HL sequence).
- Trail behind the last swing or an anchored VWAP from the catalyst candle; never trail tighter than 0.5× ADR.
- If a data print contradicts the story and price accepts beyond invalidation, flatten—no “hope holds.”
- After two consecutive scratches on the same idea, pause and re-test the narrative map before re-engaging.
Journaling & Review: Turn Stories Into Stats
Narratives are powerful, but they have to survive contact with the scoreboard. Joe packages each week into lessons that feed back into the playbook.
- Journal three lines per trade: story → setup → outcome. Tag with regime (e.g., “inflation-sticky,” “policy-pivot,” “soft-landing”).
- Weekly review: top 3 adds to the playbook, top 3 mistakes to eliminate, and one process change to trial next week.
- Track hit rate and payoff by regime; if an edge only works in “policy-tightening,” force yourself flat when the regime changes.
- Save annotated charts and macro notes together so future you can see both the picture and the why.
Career Edge & Information Flow: Build Rooms, Not Feeds
Part of Joe’s edge is curating who and what he listens to—trading floors, macro circles, and a newsletter where he pressure-tests ideas publicly. This keeps the signal high and the drift low.
- Maintain a short “inner circle” you actually speak with weekly; trade fewer takes, verify more.
- Write a public or private note each week to force clarity (“would I fund this idea?” test).
- Replace doom-scrolling with scheduled research blocks (90–120 minutes) and a tight reading list aligned to your current regime.
- Seek asymmetric rooms—people closer to policy, flow, or balance-sheet realities than you are.
Mindset & Routine: Discipline That Scales
The method only works if the habits do. Joe’s story emphasizes faith, routine, and long arcs of study—especially around policy mechanics and Asia-focused themes—so progress compounds.
- Non-negotiables: sleep window, training, and a daily “no-input” block before London, where you think alone about the narrative.
- Define “green, yellow, red” states; size down or skip when you’re yellow/red (tired, distracted, tilted).
- Replace “more trades” with “more depth”: one high-quality expression beats three shallow punts.
- Keep faith in the process: your job is to align with the regime, not predict every tick.
Size Risk First: Let Volatility, Not Conviction, Set Your Bet
Joe Olashugba keeps it simple: the market’s recent range decides size, not how good a setup “feels.” Start by measuring current volatility—ATR or ADR on your execution timeframe—and anchor your stop to that, not to hope. Then back into position size so a normal day’s move won’t knock you out of the game. If your stop is wider because volatility is high, you take fewer units; if volatility compresses, you can scale up without changing dollar risk.
He also caps correlated exposure, so one macro theme can’t sink the boat. Risk per idea is defined in cash first, then translated into size after you know the stop distance. When in doubt, round down—small and survivable beats big and fragile. And remember the golden rule Joe Olashugba repeats: never add to a loser; add only at pre-planned levels after fresh confirmation.
Diversify by Underlying, Strategy, and Timeframe to Smooth Equity Curves
Joe Olashugba spreads risk across what you trade, how you trade it, and how long you hold it. That means pairing a macro FX trend position with a shorter-term mean reversion expression, and maybe a rates or index hedge that benefits if the core view wobbles. Correlation is the enemy here—diversification only works if the drivers differ, so Joe looks for distinct catalysts and sensitivities rather than different tickers that move together. He prefers three clear “buckets”: underlying (FX vs. rates vs. indices), strategy style (trend, breakout, mean reversion), and duration (intraday, swing, multi-week).
Joe Olashugba also sizes each bucket so that no single theme dominates during stress. If one strategy is in drawdown, another with a different edge should be gaining or at least treading water. He staggers trade start times and review windows so decisions aren’t bunched, reducing the chance of emotional clustering. Most importantly, he prunes overlap—if two positions depend on the same macro outcome, he consolidates to the cleaner expression and frees risk budget for genuinely independent ideas.
Trade Mechanics Over Prediction: Rules, Triggers, and Pre-Planned Invalidation
Joe Olashugba treats prediction as optional and mechanics as mandatory. He defines an entry trigger (level, time window, and confirmation tick) and won’t click until all three align. Each setup has a written invalidation that is structural, not emotional—if the price accepts beyond that line, he’s flat. He uses a simple checklist before entry—catalyst, level, risk, size, scenario—so nothing rides on gut feel. If the trigger prints without confirmation, he lets it go and moves on.
Once in, Joe Olashugba manages by rules: partial at 1R, trails behind fresh structure, and never tightens stops in the middle of noise. He pre-writes If–Then actions for data releases so one candle doesn’t hijack the plan. Trades that stall for a set number of bars get scratched; setups that morph into something else are closed and re-framed. The goal isn’t to be right, it’s to execute the same high-quality process every time. Mechanics create repeatability; prediction just creates opinions.
Define Risk Upfront: Use Stops, Limits, and Scenario If–Then Plans
Joe Olashugba starts every idea by fixing the loss he’s willing to take, in cash, before he even thinks about the upside. He sets a hard stop at the structural invalidation level, a soft stop if the narrative breaks, and a time stop if the price goes nowhere for a set number of bars. Limits are placed at pre-mapped targets, so he gets paid while he’s right instead of improvising mid-trade. If the invalidation level is too far for acceptable risk, Joe simply reduces the size or passes.
He also scripts scenario plans around catalysts, so there’s no panic when the tape gets loud. For example: “If core CPI surprises hot, hold USD longs through London close; if soft, flatten and reassess into NY.” Orders are staged, alerts are set, and he refuses to widen stops once the trade is live. Joe Olashugba’s rule is simple: the market can move however it wants, but his risk is never allowed to grow.
Process Discipline Daily: Calendars, Reviews, and Ruthless Post-Trade Audits
Joe Olashugba treats process like a position—funded, protected, and reviewed every day. He blocks the macro calendar first, then builds a simple daily run sheet: premarket prep, execution windows, and post-close review. Each trade is logged in three lines—narrative, setup, outcome—with tags for regime, catalyst, and emotion state. He schedules a short midday check to prevent “drift,” and if he’s off-plan, he sizes down automatically. No trade is “done” until screenshots, notes, and rationale are saved.
At week’s end, Joe Olashugba runs a ruthless audit: what to double down on, what to delete, and one concrete process tweak for next week. He grades decisions, not P&L, so good losses keep their confidence value. He hunts for correlated accidents and trims overlapping expressions from the playbook. He also tracks win rate and payoff by regime to know when to press and when to stand down. The result is a living strategy that compounds small operational edges into durable performance.
Joe Olashugba’s through-line is simple: build the macro story, then let rules—not opinions—run the trade. He starts by mapping regime drivers (growth, inflation, policy, liquidity) into a clean cause-and-effect narrative and chooses instruments where that story expresses cleanly—usually major FX and front-end rates. From there, he scripts the week: calendars, key data, and If–Then responses so no single candle decides his fate. Risk is fixed in cash before the click; stops sit at structural invalidation, limits are staged at pre-planned targets, and size floats with volatility, so a normal session never equals a career-ending hit.
What makes the approach durable is how Joe Olashugba treats the process as an edge. He diversifies by underlying, strategy style, and timeframe to avoid correlation accidents. He never adds to losers, only to confirmed winners at pre-mapped levels. Each position is journaled in three lines—story, setup, outcome—then reviewed by the regime so he knows when to press and when to stand down. Most importantly, he curates his inputs and rooms, trading fewer, better-validated ideas while protecting the daily routine that keeps signal high: deliberate prep, narrow execution windows, and ruthless post-trade audits. The net result is a playbook any trader can copy today—tight risk, mechanical execution, and a narrative that updates the second the facts do.
