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In today’s interview, we sit down with Sylvain Lemaire—the French hedge fund veteran behind Paris’s first market-neutral desk—who helped raise hundreds of millions and ultimately managed about $700M without a single losing year. He’s candid about why “performance is the best marketing,” how real risk desks police leverage, and why conviction must stay personal even when you’re surrounded by smart teams. If you’re a retail trader looking for hard-won lessons from institutional trenches—market cycles, timing, and disciplined risk—this one’s for you.
You’ll learn Sylvain’s cycle-first playbook (macro for the big picture, technicals for entries), why long-term key levels beat noisy intraday lines, and how he treats timing as the difference between a great idea and a losing trade. We’ll unpack his risk protocol—cutting size after an ~8% drawdown—plus his take on liquidity, elections, and geopolitics shaping the dollar and equity flows. By the end, you’ll have a beginner-friendly blueprint to structure conviction, manage pressure, and apply pro-grade risk management to your own trader strategy.
Sylvain Lemaire Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Philosophy: Conviction first, timing second
Here’s the backbone of how Sylvain Lemaire approaches markets: get the big idea right, then let price action decide when to act. Think of it as macro conviction filtered through clear technical triggers so you avoid being early, late, or oversized.
- Define the core thesis in one sentence before any chart work (e.g., “USD strength persists while global PMIs roll over”).
- If the thesis isn’t falsifiable by 1–2 data points or levels, rewrite it until it is.
- Never enter without timing alignment: macro view + higher-timeframe level + trigger on execution timeframe.
- Treat timing as a risk tool: being early = smaller size or skip.
Market Selection & Bias: Pick your fights
He narrows to instruments where the macro story actually bites and liquidity is deep. If the driver isn’t obvious, the edge is thin; wait for something you truly understand.
- Trade only instruments with a clean macro driver (e.g., rate differentials, energy shocks, fiscal impulses).
- Rank watchlist weekly by clarity (driver strength, policy path, positioning) and allocate focus to the top 3–5.
- Avoid names with idiosyncratic event risk you can’t handicap (e.g., opaque earnings, litigations) unless it’s your specialty.
- If bias isn’t binary (bull/bear) after your prep, no trade until it is.
Top-Down to Trade Idea: From regime to setup
Big picture first, then narrow to specific pairs, indices, or sectors that express the view most cleanly. This keeps you from forcing trades just because a chart looks pretty.
- Identify the current regime (inflation up/down, growth up/down, liquidity loose/tight) and trade in its direction.
- Map policy path (central bank guidance, election calendars, fiscal stance) and note dates you will not add risk.
- Choose the cleanest expression (e.g., short weakest FX vs strongest, long sector most levered to the theme).
- Build a driver’s checklist: growth, inflation, policy path, positioning, flows; require 3/5 in your favor to proceed.
Timing & Execution: Let price invite you in
He relies on a higher-timeframe structure to define “where,” then lets lower-timeframe triggers say “when.” No trigger, no trade—conviction doesn’t override entries.
- Mark weekly/daily key levels (prior swing highs/lows, weekly closes, VWAP/AVWAP anchors) and trade only at/near them.
- Entry triggers: break-retest, failed breakout (trap), or trend pullback to value; ignore everything else.
- Require confluence: higher-timeframe level + intraday structure shift (HH/HL for longs, LH/LL for shorts).
- If the spread widens or slippage > 0.5R at the trigger, pass and re-queue the setup.
Position Sizing: Size to survive the misses
Sizing is mechanical, so emotions don’t creep in. He scales exposure to conviction and recent performance, not to “feel.”
- Define R as 1% of equity by default (adjustable to 0.25–0.5% for new playbooks).
- Base size = R / stop distance; never exceed 2R total risk across correlated assets.
- Starter size at first touch; add only on validation (retest holds or higher low forms) up to 1.5× base.
- If the last 10 trades’ win rate < 40%, cut R by half until back above 50%.
Risk & Trade Management: Rules that police your worst day
He assumes he’ll be wrong often, so stops are placed where the idea actually fails, not where they are comfortable. Management focuses on risk removal first, profits second.
- Place stops beyond invalidation, not noise: behind weekly levels or last structure swing (not arbitrary pips).
- Move to break-even only after +1R and a clear market structure shift in your favor.
- Scale out 30–50% at +2R, trail the remainder behind higher-timeframe swings; never turn a +2R winner into a loss.
- Hard daily loss cap = 2R; weekly loss cap = 5R; monthly drawdown circuit-breaker = 8–10% then cut size by 50% and trade only A+ setups for two weeks.
Portfolio Construction & Correlation: Don’t double-count the same bet
Multiple positions can secretly be the same macro wager. He treats correlation like leverage—because it is.
- Map each position’s macro driver; if drivers match (USD, rates, oil), they are correlated risk.
- Cap theme risk at 3R max across all positions in the same driver.
- Opposite signals within the same driver? Net them or pick the cleaner one; avoid hedges you don’t intend.
- Use ex-ante VaR or a simple sum of worst-case losses to ensure a single headline can’t wipe out> 4R.
Playbook by Market Regime: What to do, concretely
He adapts tactics to the environment. Same logic, different tempo and holds.
- Trending / Strong Dollar (or single-factor dominance):
- Trade pullbacks to value on the dominant side; hold for swing targets (prior weekly extremes).
- No counter-trend unless divergence + failed breakout + tight stop = <0.5R risk.
- Range / Mean-Revert:
- Fade edges only at weekly levels with well-defined traps; TP at mid; never chase mid-range.
- Reduce size by 30–50%, widen stops to structural edges, and take profits faster.
- Event-Heavy / Volatile:
- Flat into tier-1 events unless already >+1R and partials are banked.
- Post-event, trade first clean retest of the break; ignore the initial spike.
Entry Playbook (Three Triggers): Keep it simple
He standardizes three entries to remove hesitation. If you master these, you’ll cover 80% of quality trades.
- Break-Retest: Break of weekly level → wait for retest → candle close confirms → enter; stop behind level; first target 2R.
- Failed Break (Trap): Price pokes above/below key level then snaps back; enter on reclaim; stop beyond the wick; target opposite edge.
- Trend Pullback: In trend, wait for a 3-leg pullback to prior value (VWAP/AVWAP/50-61.8% zone); stop under last higher low / over last lower high.
Trade Lifecycle Checklist: From idea to exit
A fixed checklist means fewer mistakes and cleaner data for review.
- Pre-trade: Thesis (1 line), driver checklist (≥3/5), levels marked, trigger selected, risk noted (R).
- During trade: Log reason to hold/exit at each decision; if you can’t state it in one sentence, flatten to half.
- Post-trade: Record outcome (R), screenshots, and whether invalidation was correct; tag by regime and trigger.
Higher-Timeframe Levels: The only lines that matter
He cares about levels other traders care about—weekly and daily structures—because that’s where the real orders live.
- Draw levels only from weekly/daily swings and weekly closes; delete intraday clutter daily.
- If the price is between levels, wait; take trades at levels or not at all.
- One anchor at a time: if using AVWAP from a major pivot, don’t stack three different anchors on the same chart.
Journaling & Metrics: Make the edge measurable
You can’t improve what you don’t measure. He tracks just enough stats to know which levers to pull.
- Track by trigger (break-retest, trap, pullback), regime, and instrument; review weekly.
- Promote triggers with a win rate >50% and avg R >1.2; demote anything below.
- Tag mistakes: “early,” “late,” “oversized,” “no level,” “news fade”—aim to reduce the top mistake by 50% next month.
- Keep a Do-Not-Trade list for instruments that consistently underperform your triggers.
Risk Escalation & De-escalation: Dynamic throttle
Sizing should expand when the market pays you and contract when it doesn’t. It’s systematic, not emotional.
- After 3 consecutive winners or +4R net in 5 trades, increase R by +25% for the next 3 A+ setups.
- After 3 consecutive losers or -3R in 5 trades, cut R by 50% and switch to only one trigger until back to even.
- Never add size to a losing position; add only after validation (reclaim/retest) with fresh risk defined.
Intraday Process: How a session actually runs
Process beats prediction. A tight loop keeps you from drifting into random trades.
- Pre-session (15–30 min): Update bias, mark two levels above/below, write the one scenario you’d love to trade.
- During the session: Price reaches level? Execute the pre-chosen trigger or do nothing.
- End session (10 min): Screenshot entries/exits, grade discipline (A/B/C), and set alerts at tomorrow’s levels.
Psychology & Pressure: Institutional habits for retail
He assumes pressure is part of the job and designs rules that keep psychology from hijacking the day.
- Decision rule: if heart rate or breathing spikes, stand up for 90 seconds; no orders while standing.
- After a full-stop loss, the next trade must be half size by rule, even if the setup is A+.
- Cap screen time: if no A+ setup in 90 minutes, step away; missed trades are cheaper than forced trades.
Maintenance Windows: When not to trade
Knowing when to do nothing is a superpower. He blocks off time where the edge degrades.
- No new risk 30 minutes before major scheduled events you track; trade the post-event retest instead.
- Skip the first trade after returning from breaks, travel, or illness unless it’s a textbook A+ with half size.
- If spread/latency worsens or the platform misbehaves, flatten and resolve—process integrity beats opportunity.
Playbook Updates: Keep it living, not static
The market changes, so the playbook evolves—on purpose and on schedule.
- Monthly review: Add one improvement (e.g., better stop logic) and retire one underperforming tactic.
- Quarterly purge: Remove any rule you haven’t used or that adds complexity without R-improvement.
- Promote changes only after a 25-trade sample shows improvement in average R and drawdown depth.
Example Trade Template: Fill-in and go
A consistent template turns ideas into repeatable actions and clean data. Copy it before each trade.
- Thesis (1 line): ______________________
- Driver checklist (3/5?): Growth ☐ Inflation ☐ Policy ☐ Positioning ☐ Flows ☐
- Instrument & Expression: ______________________
- Higher-TF Levels: ______________________
- Trigger: Break-Retest ☐ Failed Break/Trap ☐ Trend Pullback ☐
- Risk (R % / Stop distance): ______________________
- Entry/Validation Note: ______________________
- Management Plan (partials/BE): ______________________
- Invalidation (exact): ______________________
- Post-Trade Notes: ______________________
Size Risk Like a Pro: Volatility-Adjusted Positioning That Survives
Sylvain Lemaire treats size like the steering wheel, not the gas pedal. He anchors every position to current volatility, so the same setup risks the same “R,” whether the market is sleepy or screaming. If ATR or implied vol doubles, his size halves—simple math that keeps losses stable when noise rises. He also caps correlated exposure, so three trades driven by the same macro theme don’t secretly equal triple risk.
When Lemaire’s read is A+, he scales in only after price confirms, never before; conviction adjusts entries, not stops. He standardizes risk at the portfolio level, too: hard daily and weekly loss limits that force him to throttle down before emotions take over. Winners get to run behind structure; losers get cut where the idea actually fails, not where it merely hurts. That’s how he stays in the game long enough for Edge to show up.
Trade the Mechanics, Not Your Opinions: Rules Over Predictions Every Session
Sylvain Lemaire builds his day around repeatable mechanics, not hero calls. He predefines the trigger, the stop, and the scale-out before a single order is placed, so the market either invites him in or it doesn’t. If the level and trigger don’t align, he passes—no chasing, no “because I think.” His checklist is the referee: level, structure shift, risk in R, and correlation impact.
When emotions flare, Lemaire leans harder into the script, not the story. He’ll cut size after a full-stop loss by rule, and he won’t move a stop unless the invalidation moves. Predictions can be entertaining; mechanics pay the bills. By turning decisions into “if–then” statements, he trades the plan instead of his mood—and that’s where consistency lives.
Diversify Smart: Underlying, Strategy, and Holding Duration—Not Just Tickers
Sylvain Lemaire doesn’t confuse “more positions” with diversification; he spreads risk across different drivers. That means mixing underlyings (FX, indices, commodities) so one macro headline can’t hit everything at once. He also diversifies by strategy—trend continuation, range reversion, and breakout traps—so when one edge cold-streaks, another can carry the load. Duration matters too: blending intraday, swing, and position trades smooths the equity curve when volatility shifts. If three trades are all really a USD bet, he treats them as one and caps the combined risk.
Lemaire pressure-tests the correlation before clicking buy, asking whether the same narrative explains all entries. He caps theme exposure, budgets risk per bucket, and refuses “accidental hedges” unless they’re intentional with clear exits. Time-staggering entries across sessions reduces slippage clusters and prevents doubling down at the same moment. The result is a portfolio that survives regime flips because it isn’t married to a single idea or timeframe.
Define Your Risk Upfront: No Unlimited Loss Paths, Ever
Sylvain Lemaire refuses trades that can spiral beyond a known loss. He defines invalidation on the chart first, then sizes the position so that stop equals a fixed R—never the other way around. Options or structures that cap downside get priority when spot risk can gap; undefined risk is a hard pass unless it’s boxed in by a hedge. He’ll only move a stop if the thesis has changed, not because P&L hurts.
Lemaire sets disaster planning before entry: a slippage buffer, correlated exposure cap, and a daily/weekly loss limit that cuts him off automatically. If price gaps through the level, he treats the next print as the exit and immediately reduces the size on follow-ups. Profit targets are optional; risk is not—partial at +2R, trail behind structure, and never let a green trade turn red. By forcing every position onto a bounded playing field, he turns uncertainty into a cost he can actually afford.
Build a Process You Can Repeat: Prep, Triggers, Review, Throttle
Sylvain Lemaire runs the same session loop every day, so decisions feel boring—in the best way. He preps by writing a one-line bias, marking two key levels above and below, and preselecting the trigger he’ll actually take. If the price doesn’t come to his level with the chosen trigger, he does nothing and saves R for the next session. He also sets throttle rules ahead of time so size expands after good execution and contracts after a rough patch.
After the bell, Lemaire journals the trade like a scientist: thesis, trigger used, R risked, outcome, and whether he followed the plan. He grades discipline, not just P&L, because consistency beats lucky winners. Weekly, he promotes the triggers with the best average R and shelves the ones that slump. Over time, this tight loop turns edge into habit and habit into results.
In the end, Sylvain Lemaire’s edge isn’t a magic indicator—it’s the stack of small, strict choices he repeats without fail. He builds conviction from the big picture, then waits for price to invite him in at weekly/daily levels using simple triggers like break-retests, failed breaks, and trend pullbacks. Size is always volatility-aware and expressed in R, with daily and weekly loss caps and a hard circuit-breaker around larger drawdowns. He defines risk before he clicks, refuses unlimited downside, and treats correlation like leverage so one theme can’t ambush the whole book. Across regimes, he adapts tactics, favors clean expressions of the thesis, and won’t trade into tier-1 events without structure and partials banked.
What makes this durable is the process loop: brief prep, preselected triggers, disciplined execution, and ruthless journaling that promotes what works and shelves what doesn’t. Diversification is real—across underlyings, strategies, and holding durations—so cold streaks in one lane don’t sink the month. Wins are trailed behind structure; losses are cut where the idea actually fails; size expands only after proof and contracts after damage. Put together, Lemaire’s playbook turns uncertainty into known costs, turns opinions into mechanics, and turns a trader into an operator who can show up tomorrow with the same calm, high-quality decisions.
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