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Today’s interview features Chris Weston in Melbourne—head of research at Pepperstone, ex–ex-sell-side trader across equities, fixed income, and FX. He’s the rare hybrid who can flip between strategist and trader, translating macro themes into live decisions on screens. Why it matters: Chris has sat where the big flows move, understands how liquidity and positioning shape price, and has distilled that into a practical framework retail traders can actually use.
In this piece you’ll learn how Chris Weston uses probability thinking, price action, and implied volatility to size risk; how he reads flow and sentiment (from options skew to correlations) without getting lost in lagging data; and how he keeps emotions out by trading the market—not his P&L. You’ll also get his take on when fundamentals actually matter, how to avoid headline landmines, and why journaling by session and instrument is the fastest path to consistent improvement.
Chris Weston Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Philosophy: Price First, Macro as a Tailwind
You’ll see markets clearer when price action leads and macro frames the “why.” Chris Weston treats narratives as context, not triggers, and converts them into simple, testable rules that respect risk first.
- Trade what price confirms on your timeframe; use macro only to filter direction and conviction.
- If price and macro disagree, follow price and cut size by 50% until alignment returns.
- Define your trade the way a bookmaker prices odds: write the scenarios, assign rough probabilities, and size to the expected outcome, not the hope.
- No trade without a written exit and a max loss you can accept twice in a row.
Daily Prep: Build a One-Page Playbook Before the Open
Preparation is about creating a shortlist you can execute without hesitation. Keep it tight: a few markets, a few catalysts, and a few levels.
- Pre-market, list the top 3 macro drivers for the day (e.g., payrolls, central bank speakers, crude inventory).
- Mark one “A+” instrument per theme (e.g., USDJPY for rates, NAS100 for risk, XAUUSD for haven).
- Draw yesterday’s high/low, overnight high/low, first support/resistance from H1/H4, and a weekly pivot or VWAP band.
- Write a single sentence for your bias per instrument (bullish/neutral/bearish) and the catalyst that flips it.
Trade Selection: Align Flow, Volatility, and Liquidity
He hunts where participation is thick and ranges are clean. High-volatility days need wider targets and looser expectations; low-volatility days pay for mean reversion and scalps.
- Only trade symbols with bid-ask tightness and consistent fill quality during your session.
- If 20-day ATR is above its 6-month median, favor breakout and trend-continuation plays; if below, favor fades back to VWAP/value.
- Skip assets with messy correlation breakdowns unless they’re your sole A+ setup.
- If the session is headline-heavy, prioritize indices and FX majors over single names.
Entry Triggers: From Idea to Execution
Ideas don’t pay; execution does. Weston translates themes into two simple entry styles—breakout with confirmation or pullback into structure.
- Breakout: enter on M15 close above/below a clearly defined level with volume/impulse; no wicks only.
- Pullback: wait for price to retest the broken level or VWAP band and print a higher low/lower high on M5–M15.
- Never chase beyond 0.5R from the planned entry; if missed, set an alert and move on.
- If spreads widen or slippage exceeds 0.3R on the first fill, halve risk or stand down.
Risk Sizing: Volatility-Normalized and Pre-Committed
Sizing flexes with volatility, so the pain per trade stays stable. Pre-commit the max damage so one bad candle doesn’t end your week.
- Risk a fixed % of equity per trade (e.g., 0.25–0.5%) and convert to units using ATR or average true range of your entry timeframe.
- Place stops beyond the structure that invalidates the thesis (e.g., 1.2× ATR beyond swing).
- Hard daily loss stop: 2R–3R max; hit it and power down for that session.
- If the day’s realized vol is >1.5× its 20-day median, cut per-trade risk by 30–50%.
Managing the Position: Let Winners Work, Kill Mediocre
The job after entry is simple: keep good trades alive and remove the rest. Trail methodically; don’t micromanage.
- Scale out 1/3 at +1R, move stop to breakeven only after a structure break in your favor.
- For trend plays, trail behind swing lows/highs or a single MA (e.g., EMA20) on your execution timeframe.
- Time stop: if price hasn’t progressed 0.5R within 60–90 minutes in liquid sessions, close or reduce by half.
- If a scheduled catalyst is imminent and unrealized P&L <0.8R, reduce 50% or flatten.
Catalyst Playbook: Trading Around Data and Central Banks
Events set the tone for flows and repricing. The edge is knowing when to step aside and when to lean in.
- If your setup relies on a data release, enter only on the second move (post-whipsaw) once spreads normalize.
- For big central bank days, trade indices/FX only after the first 5–15 minutes; ignore the first impulsive wick.
- If the event contradicts your bias but the price fails to reverse beyond the key level, treat it as fuel for your original direction at half size.
- Always mark the prior day’s high/low and session VWAP—event moves often revert to them.
Sentiment & Positioning: Let the Crowd Show Its Hand
Crowd positioning and sentiment help grade the quality of a setup. Use them to avoid fighting consensus at extremes.
- If sentiment is one-sided and price stalls at a weekly level, prefer fade setups with tight risk.
- If sentiment is stretched but price keeps trending with shallow pullbacks, ride it—stops trail under higher lows/lower highs.
- Correlate risk assets (index futures, high-beta FX, crude, yields). If 3+ risk proxies align, upgrade trade quality; if they diverge, downshift to half size.
- Avoid adding on weakness/strength if positioning data shows a crowded side and breadth is deteriorating.
Trend vs. Range: Two Distinct Rule Sets
Never mix playbooks. Decide what regime you’re in, then use the matching rules.
- Trend day checklist: price holds one side of VWAP, shallow pullbacks, rising/lower swing structure—trade breakouts and first pullbacks only.
- Range day checklist: overlapping candles, mean reversion to VWAP, failed breaks—trade fades at edges with 0.8–1.2× ATR targets.
- Switch playbooks if VWAP flips and holds for 30+ minutes with impulse.
- If unsure of the regime, reduce the size by 50% and trade only A setups.
Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Top-Down, One Trigger
The higher timeframes define the map; the lower timeframe gives the timing. Keep them in sync to avoid fighting larger flows.
- Start at D1/H4 for direction and key levels; plan entries on H1/M15, trigger on M5–M15 close.
- Only take longs when H4 structure is up (higher highs/lows) or shorts when down; if mixed, trade smaller or skip.
- If your trigger prints against the higher-timeframe structure, pass.
- Weekly levels trump intraday noise—stops and targets respect the higher map.
Playbook Targets: Pre-Plan the Exit Math
Targets must be planned, not improvised. Use nearby structure and session ranges to set realistic R multiples.
- Default target = next H1/H4 level or 1.5–2.5R, whichever comes first.
- On trend days, leave a runner (10–25%) until structure breaks or the session ends.
- If price hits +1R but momentum/volume fades, trail tighter instead of banking early.
- Never turn a winner into a loser: once +1R is printed and structure confirms, stop ratchets to breakeven.
News and Headlines: Avoid the Landmines
Headlines are where good trades die from slippage. Control the exposures you can control.
- Maintain a calendar of tier-1 events and set alerts 10–15 minutes before.
- Flatten or hedge if your stop sits inside expected news slippage zones.
- Do not widen stops before events; either pre-reduce, hedge, or stand aside.
- If caught in a spike, exit on the first liquidity return rather than revenge-adding.
Journaling & Review: Turn Data into Upgrades
Improvement is a process: capture what you did, not just what happened. Grade execution, not P&L.
- Log every trade with: setup type, catalyst, entry trigger, stop, target, R, execution grade (A/B/C).
- Tag outcomes by regime (trend/range) and by volatility bucket to see where your edge truly lives.
- Weekly: cut your bottom setup and double down on the top one for the next 5 sessions.
- Screenshot entries/exits with notes; rewrite one rule per week for clarity.
Risk Framework for the Week: Protect the Campaign
Consistency comes from protecting the down days and pressing the right moments. Build brakes and accelerators into the plan.
- Weekly loss limit: 6–8R; if hit by Thursday, stop trading and review.
- Green day accelerator: if you’re +2R by mid-session with clean conditions, allow one additional A+ trade at normal size.
- Red day brake: after –2R on the day, only take one more A setup at 50% size.
- Never increase size mid-week unless volatility has fallen and your last 10 trades show execution grade A/B.
Execution Hygiene: Keep the Process Boring
Boring process creates exciting equity curves. Reduce variables, standardize decisions, and let repetition work.
- Use the same order templates for breakout vs. pullback (pre-filled stop and target).
- Alerts > staring: place alerts at levels; no impulsive entries between them.
- One chart template per regime; hide indicators you’re not using that day.
- Shut platforms at your hard stop time, even if you’re “almost back to breakeven.”
Size Risk by Volatility, Not Ego, and Survive Bad Days
Chris Weston treats position size like a thermostat: volatility goes up, size turns down. He’ll anchor risk to an objective measure—like ATR or recent range—so each trade risks a similar slice of equity regardless of the market’s mood. That keeps a hot headline or a surprise spike from wiping out multiple days in one shot. The point, as Chris puts it, is to trade the market you have today, not the confidence level you wish you had.
When ranges expand, Chris Weston widens stops to where the setup is actually invalidated and cuts size so the dollar risk stays constant. On calmer days, he allows a slightly larger size with tighter structural stops, aiming for cleaner R multiples. A hard daily loss limit ends the session early and protects the campaign even when a setup feels “too good to miss.” By letting volatility, not ego, set the bet, he stays in the game long enough for the edge to play out.
Trade Price First, Use Macro Only to Confirm Direction
Chris Weston starts with the chart and lets price action set the bias before any narrative gets a vote. He’ll mark structure, momentum, and key levels, then ask whether macro simply supports or contradicts what price already says. If price and story disagree, he follows price and cuts size until alignment returns. That way, he avoids forcing trades because a headline sounds persuasive.
When the macro does line up—like a policy shift or a data trend reinforcing the move—Chris Weston upgrades conviction but keeps the trigger technical. He times entries on closes through levels or pullbacks into value, not on speeches or tweets. Fundamentals frame the landscape; the print of the candles decides the trade. This split keeps him nimble when narratives flip, but the tape doesn’t.
Diversify by Underlying, Strategy, and Timeframe to Smooth Equity
Chris Weston spreads risk so no single theme can bully his P&L. He mixes underlyings—FX majors, equity indices, and liquid commodities—so one shock doesn’t dominate outcomes. He also diversifies by approach, pairing trend continuation with mean-reversion and breakout with pullback, letting one style carry when another cools off. Finally, he staggers timeframes, running intraday trades alongside swing holds to reduce reliance on any single session’s mood.
When correlations spike, Chris Weston scales back overlapping exposure and caps risk per theme so he’s not secretly running one giant bet. He rotates toward the markets with cleaner ranges and steps down in those that turn choppy, keeping his average trade quality high. If volatility clusters in one product, he trims there and finds a calmer vehicle to express the idea. The goal isn’t more trades—it’s more independent chances for the edge to show up.
Define Rules Before Entry: Triggers, Stops, Targets, No Exceptions
Chris Weston treats every trade like a pre-written script. Before clicking, he defines the technical trigger, the invalidation level, and the first and stretch targets in R multiples. He notes the timeframe for the stop (structure-based, not dollar-based) and the exact reason to pass if the setup mutates. That clarity kills hesitation and prevents improvising when the tape gets loud.
Once in, Chris Weston refuses to edit rules mid-trade unless new structure forms and the plan allowed for it. If slippage widens or the catalyst is minutes away, the rulebook already dictates to reduce or exit—no “just this once.” Targets are taken as planned, with a small runner only if trend conditions persist and structure holds. The point is simple: decisions are made calmly and early, not stressed and late.
Focus on Mechanics Over Prediction; Journal Process and Execution Grades
Chris Weston focuses on what he can repeat, not what he can guess. He builds a checklist for setup quality, entry timing, and exit conditions, then grades his own execution against that list after every trade. The target is a cleaner process score next week, not a bigger single-day P&L. Prediction becomes optional when your mechanics give you ten good shots a week.
To lock that in, Chris Weston journals immediately: the setup name, market regime, trigger, stop logic, and post-trade emotions in a sentence or two. He tags wins and losses by mistake type—late entry, early exit, size error—so the fix is obvious. Each weekend, he drops the lowest-performing setup and doubles down on the one with the best execution grade. The edge compounds because the process does.
Chris Weston’s core message is simple: trade price, manage risk, and let the process do the heavy lifting. He starts with what the market is actually doing—structure, momentum, ranges—and lets macro act as a tailwind, not a trigger. When volatility expands, he widens stops to the true invalidation and cuts size so the dollar risk stays stable; when it compresses, he tightens structure and allows slightly larger size. He pays attention to flow and positioning through practical tells like options skew and risk reversals, but only to grade quality—entries still come from the tape. And he’s ruthless about session selection: focus on the hours when your instruments actually move, stand down when catalysts or liquidity conditions turn your edge into guesswork.
The rest is discipline. Chris Weston scripts trades ahead of time with triggers, stops, and targets so decisions are made calmly and early, not stressed and late. He manages open risk by letting winners breathe while killing slow or mediocre trades on time stops, especially around events. He diversifies by underlying, approach, and timeframe to avoid one hidden “big bet,” and he journals relentlessly—tagging mistakes, grading execution, and doubling down on what the data says he does best. The lesson is not prediction; it’s repeatability: a volatility-normalized bet size, a clear invalidation, a clean trigger, and a weekly review that upgrades the rules. That’s how Chris turns market noise into a durable playbook.
