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In this interview, price-action trader Nick Bencino sits down to talk through how he’s approaching wild, recession-style markets. Nick’s been trading since the early 2000s and still cites 2008 as his best year, thanks to embracing volatility instead of fighting it. He explains why many indicator-heavy systems struggle when daily ranges explode, how his playbook shifted from reversals to breakouts, and why capital preservation comes before everything else.
You’ll learn exactly how Nick times trend breakouts, widens stops and targets to fit current ranges, and keeps macro opinions from sabotaging lower-timeframe trades. He also lays out who should not be trading right now, why demo or tiny-size live practice is crucial, and how to avoid education-space scams that prey on fear. If you want a clear, beginner-friendly way to ride momentum without blowing up your account, Nick’s rules-first breakout strategy is a timely blueprint.
Nick Bencino Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
What he trades and when he trades it
Nick focuses on liquid markets that move cleanly when volatility expands. He wants instruments that trend after news shocks and during broad risk-on/off phases. This section shows how he narrows the universe so he’s only dealing with instruments that can actually pay him.
- Trade liquid symbols only (tight spreads, small slippage): major FX pairs, index futures, large-cap equities/ETFs.
- Skip names with average true range (ATR) below your minimum movement threshold (e.g., daily ATR < 1.2% for equities, < 0.5% of price for FX).
- Favor sessions with the best follow-through: first 2 hours after cash open (equities), London/NY overlap (FX), first 90 minutes of RTH (futures).
- Sit out instruments on earnings/major data release days unless you intentionally run a breakout play on that catalyst.
Core setup: breakout with a trend filter
He’s not trying to nail bottoms; he rides momentum once the market proves it. Here’s how he defines “proof” and stacks odds with a higher-timeframe tailwind.
- Higher timeframe trend filter: 20 EMA above 50 EMA and both above 200 EMA for longs (reverse for shorts) on the daily; ignore longs if this isn’t true.
- Volatility gate: current 14-day ATR must be ≥ its 6-month median ATR. If not, reduce the size by half or skip.
- Breakout trigger (daily): go long on a confirmed close above prior day’s high, or an intraday 15-minute close above that level with volume > 1.3× 20-bar average (use tick/volume proxy for FX).
- Structure confirmation: breakout should also clear the most recent swing high by at least 0.2× ATR to avoid “tip-off” fakeouts.
Risk first: position sizing and daily guardrails
Nick treats sizing as a survival tool. If you get this right, almost any decent edge can work; get it wrong and nothing saves you.
- Risk per trade: 0.25%–0.5% of account equity (max 0.75% during exceptional volatility).
- Max open risk: never more than 1.5% total R across all positions; correlated names count as one.
- Daily loss stop: stop trading for the day at −1.5R or −2% equity drawdown, whichever comes first.
- Weekly circuit breaker: if down −4R on the week, cut size in half and trade only A-setups.
Entries that won’t chase at the top
Momentum is great until you pay the worst price. He solves this with staged entries that let the movie prove it can hold.
- Primary entry: buy the first pullback to the breakout level (prior high) that holds with a 5–15 minute close back above; avoid immediate spike entries.
- Secondary entry: if price runs >0.8× ATR from the breakout before a pullback, skip the trade or take half size on a micro pullback with a tighter stop.
- No-fill rule: if price retests and closes back inside the range, cancel the setup—structure failed.
Stops that breathe with volatility
Tight stops get chopped; loose stops leak. Nick ties stop distance to volatility, so the market has room without risking the farm.
- Initial stop: 1.0× ATR(14) below the breakout line (longs) or above (shorts); minimum technical anchor = below breakout bar’s low/high.
- If using an intraday trigger, use 0.8× ATR(14, 15-min) with a hard floor at the swing low/high.
- If the stop would exceed 0.75% equity risk at the planned size, reduce size—never widen the dollar risk to “make it work.”
Take-profits and trailing for asymmetric payoffs
He doesn’t guess tops; he scales out into strength and lets a portion ride. The rules below protect wins while keeping the door open for outlier trades.
- First target: +1R—scale out 30% and move stop to entry minus fees.
- Second target: +2R—scale another 30%; shift stop to 1R locked on remainder.
- Trailing stop on runner: 1.5× ATR(14) chandelier from the high (longs) or low (shorts); only ratchet in the trade’s favor.
- Hard exit: any daily close back inside the prior range after a breakout = close remaining shares/contracts.
Add-ons without blowing up risk
Adding to winners is great until it doubles your risk at the worst time. He adds only when momentum re-proves itself.
- Add-on trigger: new 15-minute break and hold over the prior post-entry swing high (longs) with volume confirmation; cap total risk to original 1R.
- Financing rule: every add-on must be funded by realized profits from earlier scales; never increase net dollar risk after +1R realized.
- Max adds: two. If you want more, your first size was wrong.
News, macro, and “opinions”
He respects macro catalysts but doesn’t let narratives override tape. These rules keep opinions from hijacking execution.
- Trade direction follows price action, not forecasts; ignore trades that only make sense if your macro view comes true.
- Avoid initiating within 15 minutes before tier-1 data (CPI, NFP, FOMC) unless the setup is a planned catalyst breakout.
- If a surprise headline spikes spreads/slippage beyond your max (e.g., 2× normal), flatten and re-assess—execution risk > edge.
Timeframes and multi-timeframe alignment
He plans daily, times on the 15-minute intervals, and sanity-checks every 5 minutes. This keeps him from overreacting to noise.
- Bias from the daily chart only; no counter-trend intraday trades against the daily filter.
- Execution on 15-minute; 5-minute used solely to place precise stops and spot micro pullbacks.
- If a 15-minute structure conflicts with daily bias (e.g., lower highs forming), stand aside until alignment returns.
Trade management playbook (checklist you can print)
Process beats prediction. Here’s how he standardizes decisions under pressure.
- Pre-trade: confirm trend filter, ATR gate, catalyst calendar, and correlated exposure.
- During trade: log entry reason, stop, targets, and what would invalidate the idea.
- Post-trade: screenshot entry/exit and grade A/B/C on setup quality vs. plan adherence—profit doesn’t affect the grade.
- Weekly: review losers first; tag whether failure was setup, execution, or environment. Adjust rules, not hopes.
Avoiding low-probability traps
Most drawdowns come from the same handful of mistakes. He strips them out with hard “no” rules.
- No fading fresh breakouts or catching knives—if you want reversals, do it in a different system.
- No trades in the middle of the prior day’s range—location is edge.
- No adding to losers, ever. If you’re tempted, you mis-sized the first entry.
- No trading after violating the daily loss stop; shut the platform and review.
Account growth and scaling
He scales in size when the account and the stats earn it. The goal is steady compounding, not hero trades.
- Only increase unit risk after 60 trades with a win rate and payoff ratio both at or above your system baseline (e.g., ≥45% win with ≥1.6R average win).
- Raise risk per trade in 0.1% equity increments; if a 3R stretch occurs after a size-up, revert to prior size immediately.
- Withdrawals only after a 10R month; otherwise, keep capital compounding to reduce percent-fee drag.
Tools and workspace hygiene
Fewer distractions, faster decisions. He keeps the chart clean and the routine boring.
- Charts: price, 20/50/200 EMAs, ATR, session volume—no extra oscillators.
- Layout: one higher timeframe, one execution timeframe, one watchlist; news/calendar on a separate screen.
- Alerts at levels (breakout line, ATR-based trail) so you’re not glued to every tick.
Size Risk First: Small Units, Big Survival In Wild Markets
Nick Bencino starts with risk, not charts, because survival is the only path to compounding. He keeps the initial position size small enough that any single loss feels emotionally trivial, which keeps execution clean. When volatility jumps, he shrinks the size further instead of “needing” wider stops to work. That simple shift lets him trade the same setup through calm and chaos without breaking the account.
Bencino caps total open risk so correlated positions can’t sink the boat, and he shuts it down for the day after a fixed drawdown to protect decision quality. He ties stop distance to current volatility, then back-solves size, so the dollar risk stays constant while the market breathes. Wins don’t tempt him to double up; he sizes up only after a meaningful sample proves the edge is working. The result is boring risk math that turns scary markets into manageable noise.
Trade With Volatility: Widen Stops, Expand Targets, Let Runners Pay
When ranges explode, Nick Bencino doesn’t fight the noise—he prices it in. He measures current volatility and widens his initial stop to fit the environment, then cuts position size so the dollar risk stays constant. That extra breathing room keeps him in the trade when the market whipsaws before the real move. He also shifts targets outward, aiming for a distance that matches today’s range, not yesterday’s calm.
Once the trade is in profit, Bencino peels some off at a logical milestone and lets a runner work behind an ATR-style trailing stop. If volatility compresses mid-trade, he tightens the trail to bank gains rather than “hope” the trend resumes. On fresh momentum bursts, he considers an add only if the pullback holds the breakout level and net risk doesn’t exceed the original R. The goal is simple: respect volatility on the way in, let it finance the outlier win on the way out.
One Playbook, Many Paths: Diversify By Underlying, Strategy, And Duration
Nick Bencino runs one core breakout playbook, but he spreads it across multiple underlyings so no single market writes his P&L. If equities are choppy, he’ll rotate attention to FX or index futures where trend quality is better, keeping execution consistent while the canvas changes. He avoids overlapping bets—two tech indices count as one idea—so correlation spikes don’t multiply risk. The key is staying loyal to rules while being flexible about where those rules get applied.
Bencino also diversifies by tactic and time-in-trade without diluting edge: daily breakouts for primary signals, intraday continuation for adds, and occasional swing holds when higher timeframes align. He staggers holding periods—some positions are same-day fades of risk, others are multi-day runners—so exits don’t cluster on one headline. That mix reduces equity-curve volatility and keeps him engaged regardless of regime. Different markets, same mechanics; the variety lives in the instruments and durations, not in chasing a new strategy every week.
Rules Over Opinions: Follow Price Action, Not Forecasts Or Feelings
Nick Bencino treats narratives as background noise and price as the only vote that counts. If his rules say “no trend, no trade,” he passes—even when the macro story sounds irresistible. He predefines invalidation, so opinions can’t negotiate with a losing position. When the tape disagrees with a thesis, Bencino assumes the tape is right and flattens.
He works from a simple checklist: structure first, trigger second, risk last—never the other way around. If momentum breaks, he doesn’t average down or “give it room”; he exits and waits for rules to re-arm. On big headline days, he lets the candle confirm before acting, because emotion is highest and edge is lowest. The result is a calm process that survives hype cycles: rules run the account, opinions get none of the keys.
Define Your Risk: Clear Exits, Hard Daily Stops, Process Discipline
Nick Bencino starts every trade by answering one question: Where is he wrong? He maps the invalidation level first, converts that distance into risk, and only then decides size. If the stop makes the position too big for comfort, he shrinks the size instead of pushing the stop farther. That discipline keeps every trade inside a fixed R, so outcomes are comparable and the equity curve stays tame.
Bencino also enforces a hard daily stop to protect decision quality when emotions spike. If he hits that limit, he shuts down, reviews, and returns with a clean slate rather than chasing back losses. Exits are rule-based: either stop, a structure break, or preplanned profit checkpoints that fund the runner. By defining risk upfront and honoring those exits without debate, Nick Bencino turns uncertainty into a series of controlled, repeatable bets.
In the end, Nick Bencino’s message is as practical as it gets: trade the market you have, not the one you wish for, and only if you can genuinely afford to play. He’s blunt that anyone under financial strain shouldn’t be trading at all, because money stress will hijack your decisions before your edge ever shows up. His own compass was forged in a high-volatility regime—2008 remains his standout year—so he recognizes the current environment for what it is: wider ranges and bigger opportunity, if you respect the risk and keep your head.
Mechanically, Bencino has adapted by shelving most reversal hunting and leaning into clean, rule-based breakouts that align with trend and volatility. He emphasizes that many indicator-only systems struggle when ranges expand this fast, while price-action frameworks—paired with volatility-aware sizing and ATR-sensible stops—have a fighting chance. Volatility is up, and he trades accordingly: let the tape prove direction, buy strength through levels, size smaller as ranges grow, and give winners room to breathe.
Finally, he keeps the human side tight: follow trends, avoid the guru noise, and don’t get duped by the education-space gold rush that blooms in chaotic markets. The distilled playbook is simple but strict—risk first, trend confirmation, breakout execution, disciplined scaling, and hard daily stops—and that’s exactly why it works when conditions get loud.
