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Vince Koehn sits down for a candid interview about how he went from business setbacks to a $1,000,000 single payout as a futures trader. He’s not selling magic—he’s showing receipts: a level-driven approach built on Market Profile, Fibonacci, and two daily plays he trusts. Vince’s story matters because it’s equal parts resilience and rules; he clawed back from heavy debt, learned fast by doing, and turned curiosity into a repeatable edge any beginner can study.
In this piece, you’ll learn the exact mechanics Vince uses: the Initial Balance “first retest rejection”, and the Previous Day Value Area “80% fill,” plus how he defends downside with a fixed stop, fast break-even, and a strict three-trade day. We’ll unpack his scaling-into-winners habit, why he journals visually (hello, poker chips), and how he keeps psychology simple by enforcing written rules. If you want a clean, beginner-friendly blueprint you can test tomorrow morning—without drowning in indicators—this is it.
Vince Koehn Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
What he trades and when he strikes
Vince focuses on liquid U.S. index futures and builds every decision around a handful of repeatable, session-based patterns. The goal is consistency over prediction: define the day’s key auction levels, wait for price to react, and take the high-probability retest—no hero calls, just process. The edge is simple, rules-driven, and designed for fast feedback and tight risk.
- Trade the U.S. index futures open (e.g., ES/NQ) during the regular session; stand down outside your playbook windows.
- Mark levels before the bell: Prior Day High/Low, Value Area High/Low (VAH/VAL), Point of Control (POC), Overnight High/Low, and Initial Balance (IB: first 60 minutes).
- Only trade when the price is interacting with one of those levels; ignore the middle of nowhere.
The “Initial Balance First Retest Rejection” (IB-FRR)
This is Vince’s bread-and-butter momentum continuation from a fresh auction. After the market sets the first hour’s range, the first clean retest of that IB edge often decides the day’s directional path. You’re not chasing the breakout—you’re trading the first pullback back to the line in the sand.
- Define IB as the first hour’s high/low; wait for a break of IB, and then the first retest of that same boundary.
- Long setup: IB high breaks, then price retests the IB high and rejects (wicks, absorption, or quick reclaim) → enter long on the rejection back above.
- Short setup: IB low breaks, then price retests the IB low and rejects → enter short on the rejection back below.
- Initial stop: 1–2 ticks beyond the opposite side of the retest wick (tight, mechanical).
- First target: prior impulse high/low or +1R, then trail to IB mid/POC; scale remainder toward session extremes.
- Invalidate if price accepts back inside IB (two 1-min closes inside) or if the retest is sloppy (multiple pokes = skip).
The “Previous Day Value 80% Fill” (PDV-80)
If price enters yesterday’s value area and holds inside for a few minutes, there’s a high probability it will traverse to the other side of the value. Vince treats this as a structured mean-reversion walk across the auction, not a guess. Entry is on acceptance, exit is at the opposite value edge, and risk is tiny.
- Criteria: Price enters prior day value and accepts (e.g., 2–3 one-minute closes inside VA) → target is the opposite value edge (VAH → VAL or VAL → VAH).
- Entry: on the next micro pullback after acceptance; avoid chasing the first candle in.
- Stop: 1–2 ticks outside the value boundary you just reclaimed (if long from VAL, stop below VAL; if short from VAH, stop above VAH).
- Management: take partial at POC, hold runner to opposite value edge; flatten if price re-exits value.
- No trade if news-driven impulse blows straight through value without building acceptance.
Risk first: fixed loss, fast break-even, strict daily cap
The account lives or dies on risk rules—Vince keeps them blunt and binary so they’re easy to execute under stress. The aim is to let a winner breathe while suffocating losers quickly, and to shut down before emotion can hijack the day.
- Hard stop per trade (pre-placed) and immediate move to break-even after +1R or POC tap—whichever comes first.
- Max three trades per day; stop trading after first full target hit or after max daily loss—whichever comes first.
- No averaging down, no widening stops, no “one more try”; if a setup fails acceptance criteria, it’s invalid for the day.
- Size small enough that the hard stop feels like a parking ticket, not a gut punch; scale up only after a green week.
Preparation: 20-minute premarket map
Vince’s prep is short on forecasts and long on if-then triggers. He builds a simple map of auction levels and defines how he’ll act if the price hits those areas. That way, the session is just following a script, not writing one live.
- Before the open: mark PDH/PDL, VAH/VAL/POC, overnight extremes, and expected IB range box.
- Write two lines for each level: “If we reject here, I take X” and “If we accept here, I take Y.”
- Note scheduled catalysts (open, 10:00 reports, FOMC days) and pre-decide reduced size or no-trade windows around them.
- Screens: one ladder or DOM optional; one 1-minute execution chart; one market-profile/volume-profile pane; one higher timeframe (15-60m) bias view.
Trade management: scale the winner, not the risk
He adds to strength only after the trade proves itself, never to a losing position. The logic is simple: if the idea is right, the market should pay you quickly and offer additional low-risk ads along the path.
- Add only after the first target is banked and stop on the original is at break-even or better.
- Adds occur at the next acceptance step: IB mid → IB edge, VA boundary → POC → opposite VA edge.
- Each add must bring the blended stop up (for longs) or down (for shorts); no add that increases total dollar risk.
Psychology and journaling: make discipline tangible
Vince keeps the mindset mechanics tactile so they stick under pressure. He favors visual scorekeeping and binary rules that remove debate mid-trade—less room for “feelings,” more room for execution.
- Journal every trade with a screenshot and one sentence: setup name, level, acceptance/rejection evidence, and exit reason.
- Use a physical token system (e.g., colored chips) to mark completed trades: green for +R, red for -R; stop placing chips when the daily cap is reached.
- Pre-commit a shutdown phrase for tilt (“Process over P&L—screens off”); execute it immediately after the daily loss cap.
Trade filters that keep you out of trouble
The plays are powerful, but only when market conditions cooperate. Vince applies simple filters so he’s not forcing A-setups in C-markets.
- Skip the first retest if the breakout leg had aberrant news volume or a straight-line spike; look for a second, cleaner structure.
- Don’t take PDV-80 on trend days with expanding range and one-time framing; value traverses work best in balance.
- IB-FRR is lower quality when the IB is extremely wide (> average) or when early rotation is chaotic with overlapping five-minute bars.
- Reduce size or stand down on days with major announcements or when spread/latency issues are noticeable.
Scaling the account without blowing it up
The path is methodical: protect the downside, nudge sizing only when execution stats demand it, and treat payouts like a business—because it is one.
- Weekly review: if win rate and average R meet your thresholds (e.g., >50% and >1.2R), increase size by the smallest increment next week; if not, hold or scale down.
- Withdraw a fixed % on green months; ring-fence tax and operating cash, keep risk capital lean.
- Any three consecutive red days → automatic size cut by 50% until two green days restore baseline.
The two-page daily plan (copy this format)
Keep everything where you can see it. One page maps the auction; the other defines the triggers and risk. When the bell rings, you’re executing a checklist, not inventing one.
- Page 1 (Map): PDH/PDL, VAH/VAL/POC, overnight extremes, IB box; annotate “acceptance → target” arrows.
- Page 2 (Rules): IB-FRR criteria, PDV-80 criteria, exact stop/target math, add-on rules, max daily loss, max trades.
- Stick the pages on the side monitor; nothing else gets to change your plan mid-session.
Map Key Levels, Trade Only Rejections at Your Lines
Vince Koehn keeps it simple: mark the auction’s key lines, then wait for the price to tap and reject those exact spots. He maps prior day high/low, value area edges, point of control, overnight extremes, and the initial balance so every decision is anchored to structure. By forcing entries at predefined levels, he avoids the random middle where chop eats accounts. The whole point is clarity—either the market respects your line, or you pass.
When price tags a mapped level, Vince Koehn looks for rejection tells: swift reclaim, failure to accept through, or sharp wick and snapback. He executes after the rejection is visible, with a stop just beyond the line and a first target at the next logical level. If price hesitates or keeps poking the level from both sides, he stands down and preserves emotional capital. The rule is brutal but freeing: no clean rejection, no trade.
Use Initial Balance Break-and-Retest for Directional Continuations
Vince Koehn treats the Initial Balance—the first hour’s high and low—as the day’s border wall. When price breaks out, he doesn’t chase; he waits for the first clean retest of that IB edge to prove direction. The edge comes from acceptance versus rejection: if the market snaps back above a broken IB high or back below a broken IB low, momentum often resumes with defined risk.
On execution, Vince Koehn enters the rejection confirmation, not the breakout candle. His stop sits just beyond the retested line, keeping risk tight while the first target aims for the prior impulse extreme or a quick +1R. If price re-enters the IB and stays there, the trade is done—no hoping, no averaging. Wide, chaotic IBs or news spikes reduce quality, so he stands down until the structure cleans up.
Ride Prior Day Value: The 80% Traversal Play.
Vince Koehn leans on a simple auction truth: once price accepts back inside yesterday’s value area, it often traverses to the opposite edge. He waits for acceptance, not a single poke—two or three firm closes inside value prove the market is willing to rotate. With that confirmation, the move becomes a guided walk across the prior day’s balance rather than a guess.
For execution, Vince Koehn buys near VAL, aiming for POC first, then VAH—or sells near VAH, aiming for POC, then VAL. The stop sits a tick or two outside the boundary you reclaimed; if value is lost again, he’s out without debate. He avoids the setup on strong trend days where one-time framing is expanding range, because value traversals work best in balance. Partial at POC, trail the rest toward the opposite edge, and cancel the idea entirely if price fails acceptance or rips straight through without building structure.
Small Fixed Risk, Fast Break-Even, Strict Daily Loss Cap
Vince Koehn runs defense first: every trade gets a small, predefined stop and zero wiggle room. Once the position hits +1R or taps a mapped interim level, he snaps the stop to break-even to neutralize downside. That quick risk removal lets him hold winners longer without emotional drag. If the entry doesn’t work almost immediately, he’s out—no averaging, no widening.
Vince Koehn also caps the day: a hard daily loss limit and a max number of trades, usually three. The moment either line is tagged, the platform closes and the day is done, even if a “perfect” setup appears five minutes later. He sizes so a full stop feels like a fee, not a crisis, and only scales after a green week proves execution. Winners can scale out at logical levels, but losers never get a second chance; the risk plan, not the chart, decides when to stop.
Process Over Prediction: Preplan If-Then Rules and Stop Trading Noise
Vince Koehn wins by scripting the day before it starts. He writes simple if-then statements for every key level: if price accepts above VAH, then look long on the pullback; if it rejects IB low, then short the retest. That precommitment kills hesitation and keeps him from forecasting or forcing trades in the middle.
During the session, Vince Koehn follows the script and ignores everything else—random headlines, chat noise, and “gut feel.” If the market doesn’t hit his triggers, he does nothing; no trade is a valid trade. When a rule fires, he executes mechanically, logs the outcome, and moves on without replaying what-ifs. The discipline is the edge: plan the reactions, not the direction, and the P&L takes care of itself.
Vince Koehn’s core lesson is that edge comes from structure, not prediction. Map the auction before the bell—PDH/PDL, VAH/VAL/POC, overnight extremes, and the first-hour Initial Balance—then wait for the price to prove itself at those lines. His two primary plays stay the same across market moods: the IB break-and-retest for continuation when the day shows direction, and the prior-day-value 80% traversal when the market accepts back into balance. Both rely on the same heartbeat: confirmation first, entry second, and tight, mechanical risk just beyond the line that’s supposed to hold.
Equally central is how Vince Koehn protects capital and mindspace. Every trade starts with a small fixed risk, snaps to break-even quickly, and respects a hard daily loss cap and max-trade count. He scales winners only after the trade pays, journals every decision with a simple, repeatable template, and shuts down when conditions violate his filters (news spikes, sloppy acceptance, one-time framing trend days). The big takeaway: script if-then rules in advance and let the market choose the play. When your process is this clean, you don’t need to predict—your levels and discipline do the heavy lifting.
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