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Today’s interview features Paul Singh—the swing-trading coach behind Bulls on Wall Street—breaking down how he went from law school to blowing up early accounts… to building a disciplined, full-time trading career. We recorded this to unpack the real mechanics behind his evolution: why fear (not greed) is the #1 killer, how trade management trumps entries, and why market/sector flow matters more than any single setup.
In this piece, you’ll learn Paul Singh’s practical playbook: sizing rules that survive drawdowns, how to place stops where others won’t, the shift from “find a setup” to “find where big money is rotating,” and a repeatable routine that takes minutes a day. If you’re aiming to go from part-time to full-time, Paul’s approach shows exactly what to focus on, what to ignore, and how to stack skills—without gambling your account away.
Paul Singh Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Market Regime First: When to Press, When to Protect
Before any setup, decide if the wind is at your back or in your face. This is where the edge starts—filtering the market so you only play offense when conditions warrant and instantly shift to defense when they don’t.
- Trade long only when the index you key off (SPY/QQQ/IWM) closes above the 20- and 50-day MAs with the 20 > 50 > 200 alignment; otherwise, cut size or stay flat.
- Use a simple “risk dial”: 0% (defensive), 50% (balanced), 100% (offense). Move the dial daily based on trend, breadth, and volatility.
- Breadth check: NYSE % above 20-day MA > 50% to press longs; < 40% means reduce exposure.
- Volatility gate: if VIX > 25, cap gross exposure at 50% and cut per-trade risk in half.
- Do not add new positions on days when your lead index undercuts the prior day’s low on above-average volume.
Sector & Theme Rotation: Follow the Money, Not Opinions
Big moves cluster in hot sectors and current narratives. Ride strength where funds are already allocated and avoid laggards, even if the chart looks “cheap.”
- Rank sectors weekly by 4-week relative strength vs. SPY; only trade stocks from the top 3–4 sectors.
- Within a sector, sort tickers by 20-day performance; prefer names +2σ above sector mean.
- Require RS line vs. SPY at 3-month highs for long candidates.
- If a sector drops out of the top 5 for two consecutive weeks, stop initiating longs in that group.
- Treat macro themes (AI, semis, energy, uranium, biotech) as “baskets”; aim to hold 2–4 leaders rather than one laggard.
Watchlist & Scans: Build Once, Hunt Daily
Your watchlist is your edge factory. Keep it tight, refresh it often, and only carry names that can actually move the needle.
- Daily scan for: liquid names (>$1M average dollar volume per minute), ATR(14) > 2% of price, and price above the 20-day MA.
- Flag two lists: “A” (ready in 1–3 days) and “B” (needs 3–10 days of basing).
- Purge tickers that fail to hold the 20-day MA or lose relative strength for 3 sessions.
- Keep the active list to 25–40 tickers; if you add a name, remove a weaker one.
- Color-code catalysts (earnings, product/news, analyst upgrades) and avoid any name with earnings within 48 hours.
A+ Setups: Simple, Repeatable, Measured Risk
Focus on patterns with built-in risk references. The goal is repeatability—same triggers, same stop logic, same playbook.
- Breakout from tight base: 5–15 bars of tightness, declining volume, trigger = prior closing high + 0.10%–0.30%.
- First pullback to rising 20-day MA after a strong breakout (at least +10% in 10 sessions), trigger = reclaim of prior day’s high.
- High-tight flag: +50% in ≤ 15 sessions, then 4–8 bars sideways < 25% depth; trigger = flag high + 0.20%.
- Earnings drift: post-earnings gap that holds above gap midline for 3 sessions; trigger = day-4 high.
- Short only in defensive mode: failed retest of 50-day MA with RS making new 4-week lows; trigger = break of inside-day low.
Entry Triggers: Let Price Confirm, Then Commit
Entries are permission slips, not predictions. Make the market prove you right by taking only confirmed triggers.
- Use stop-limit entries: stop at trigger, limit 0.20% above to avoid chasing slippage.
- Require confirmation volume ≥ 1.5× 20-day average in the first hour or on the breakout bar.
- If price gaps > 1.2× your planned risk (stop distance), skip the trade.
- Never enter within the first 5 minutes unless trading an earnings drift setup.
- If the trigger fires but immediately gives back > 50% of the breakout bar, abort and re-queue.
Risk Sizing & Stops: Survive First, Thrive Second
Sizing and stops determine your destiny. Define risk in cash terms first, then convert to shares using the chart’s natural structure.
- Per-trade risk (R) = 0.5% of equity in normal regimes; 0.25% in defensive; up to 0.75% in offensive with confirmed breadth.
- Position size = R ÷ (entry – stop).
- Default stop = technical invalidation: below swing low or 1.2× ATR(14) from entry (whichever is tighter).
- Portfolio max at risk (sum of open Rs) ≤ 6R; if hit 6R, stop adding until you de-risk.
- Hard rule: never widen stops; only reduce size or exit.
Trade Management: From Starter to Full Position
Win rate is built into management—how you add, trail, and harvest. Keep it mechanical to avoid hesitation.
- Start with 50–70% of the target size; add the rest on the first clean higher low or day-2 range break.
- Scale out 1/3 at +1R, move stop to breakeven on the remainder; scale another 1/3 at +2R.
- Trail with 10-day EMA in strong trends; switch to prior-day low if momentum stalls.
- Time stop: if after 5 sessions the trade hasn’t reached +0.75R, exit.
- If price closes below the 20-day MA on above-average volume, exit remaining size.
Intraday Tactics for Swing Entries: Precision Without Over-Trading
Use the intraday to sharpen swing entries, not to turn them into day trades. The aim is a better price with the same plan.
- Drop to 30m/15m to locate a tight flag or VWAP reclaim aligned with your daily trigger.
- Enter only when intraday high breaks with rising volume and VWAP support holds.
- If the stock deviates > 1% below VWAP post-entry, cut to starter and wait for a reclaim.
- Never add below VWAP; add only on higher lows above VWAP.
- Shut the screens after fills and alerts are set to avoid over-managing noise.
Avoiding Landmines: Earnings, News, and Liquidity
Most blowups come from avoidable events. Build simple guardrails so you don’t learn painful lessons twice.
- No new positions within T-2 to T+1 trading days around earnings for that ticker.
- Skip thin names: average dollar volume must exceed $20M per day for swings.
- If a name issues an unexpected offering/secondary, exit first, analyze later.
- Hard pass on stocks that move > 8% on rumors alone without confirming news.
- If spreads widen beyond 10 bps of price, reduce size or exit.
Playbook for Red Days: Defense Is a Skill
Bad days are inevitable; your response is optional. Turn drawdowns into data by following a fixed plan.
- Daily max loss = 2R; weekly max loss = 6R. Hit it, you’re done—no exceptions.
- If stopped out of 3 trades in a row, pause new entries for 24 hours and reassess the market regime.
- Replace charts with a journal: write what you expected vs. what happened, and what rule would have prevented the loss.
- Switch to watch-only mode when the index closes below the 50-day MA on heavy volume.
- Use time off, not revenge trades, to reset.
Routine: What to Do and When
Consistency beats intensity. A lightweight, repeatable routine keeps you aligned and frees up mental bandwidth.
- Nightly (20–30 min): update sector ranks, prune lists, set alerts at triggers ±0.1%–0.3%.
- Pre-market (10 min): check futures trend, gap list, earnings calendar, and your risk dial.
- First hour: execute A-plan only; no new ideas after 11 a.m. unless they were pre-planned.
- Midday (5 min): move stops, log adds/trims, and sanity-check breadth/volatility.
- Weekend (45–60 min): review winners/losers, recalc sector RS, and reset the A/B lists.
Psychology & Process: Keep the Edge Boring
Great swing trading looks uneventful. Make rules do the heavy lifting so emotions don’t.
- Define success as “I followed the plan,” not P&L. Grade every day A/B/C on rule adherence.
- Use checklists before entries: regime ok, sector ok, setup ok, trigger ok, risk ok. All five must be yes.
- Cap total open positions at 6–8 to protect attention and execution quality.
- No trading from mobile unless for pre-planned exits; entries require a full checklist.
- If you modify a rule, test it on paper for 20 trades before going live.
Size risk first: fixed-R rules that survive ugly drawdowns
Paul Singh starts with risk, not setups, because sizing is the only knob you fully control. He defines a fixed-R amount in dollars before looking at the chart and sizes shares from that, never the other way around. If market conditions worsen, he cuts R in half instead of forcing trades to work. That one move keeps losing streaks small and confidence intact.
Singh also caps total portfolio heat, so multiple “good ideas” can’t sink the boat together. Every trade has a clear invalidation level, and once price crosses it, he’s out—no moving stops, no “it’ll come back.” Winners are judged in R-multiples, which makes scaling decisions clean and repeatable. By standardizing risk first, he turns drawdowns into shallow dips and lets compounding do the heavy lifting.
Let volatility lead: adjust position size, targets, and stops
Paul Singh lets volatility dictate how hard he presses the gas. When ATR expands or VIX spikes, he cuts position size and total gross while keeping his playbook unchanged. If volatility contracts and trends are orderly, he allows fuller size and more simultaneous positions. He measures distance to stop as a function of recent range, not a fixed percentage.
Targets stretch when ranges are wide and compress when ranges are tight. Singh widens stops only if the structure requires it, but more often, he starts smaller so the original technical stop still fits the volatility. He avoids entries during volatility cliffs—wild gaps or one-bar ranges that dwarf recent candles—and waits for a reclaim or inside bar to reset risk. When momentum fades, he switches to time stops, taking the base hit rather than letting theta of opportunity decay. This volatility-first discipline keeps his expectancy stable across markets and prevents one noisy week from hijacking his month.
Diversify by underlying, strategy, and duration to smooth the equity curve.
Paul Singh spreads bets across different underlyings so one theme can’t wreck the week. If semis lead, he pairs them with a defensive or commodity name to avoid single-factor exposure. He also mixes setup types—breakouts, first pullbacks, and post-earnings drifts—so performance isn’t tied to one market personality. This blend keeps the equity curve rising even when one pocket of the market cools off.
Duration matters too: Singh holds a few multi-day swings alongside quicker two- to three-day momentum trades. When the tape is choppy, he favors shorter holds and tighter trails; in clean trends, he lets a portion run with a moving average. He limits correlation by capping positions from the same sector and theme, even if the charts all look great. The result is controlled heat, steadier P&L, and fewer emotional decisions when a single idea wobbles.
Trade mechanics over prediction: preplanned triggers, adds, exits, time stops
Paul Singh doesn’t guess where price “should” go; he codifies what he’ll do if price goes there. He uses a simple trigger—yesterday’s high, base breakout, or VWAP reclaim—to say “in,” and if it doesn’t print, he doesn’t invent a new plan. Adds are pre-approved only on higher lows above the initial breakout or a clean day-two range break, never on dips that violate structure. By deciding mechanics in advance, Singh trades faster and cleaner than his emotions.
Exits are equally mechanical: partial at +1R, another clip near +2R, and the rest trailed by a short moving average or prior day’s low. If momentum stalls, he enforces a time stop so capital isn’t trapped earning zero. When invalidation hits, he’s out without debate—no “one more candle” extensions. The edge isn’t prediction; it’s the reliability that comes from running the same script every time.
Choose defined risk when uncertainty spikes; deploy undefined only with structure.e
When markets get jumpy, Paul Singh prefers defined-risk plays so one gap can’t nuke the account. He’ll favor tight-stop equity swings or options spreads with capped downside rather than naked exposure. News clusters, earnings landmines, and macro days are automatic reasons to keep losses boxed in. The goal is simple: survive the chaos, then press when the tape normalizes.
Singh only considers undefined risk when the structure is in his favor and the size is intentionally small. He wants clear support/resistance, elevated but stabilizing volatility, and multiple exit points mapped before entry. If those conditions fade, he pares down or flips back to defined-risk structures without hesitation. That discipline lets him stay active through uncertainty while keeping worst-case scenarios boring and contained.
In the end, Paul Singh’s edge is built from boring, repeatable decisions done relentlessly well. He starts with market regime and sector rotation—pressing only when the tape is cooperative, then funnelling attention into a short list of leaders with clean structure and liquidity. Position size is always defined in cash-first “R,” stops live at true technical invalidation, and portfolio heat stays capped so a cluster of ideas can’t snowball into a nasty drawdown. Volatility sets the tempo: wide ranges mean smaller size and wider targets; tight ranges call for tighter stops and quicker profit-taking. Around earnings or news clusters, he boxes the downside with defined risk and lets the calendar guide participation, not impulse.
Mechanically, Singh trades a handful of simple patterns—tight bases, first pullbacks to a rising average, and post-earnings drifts—with preplanned triggers, staged adds, and time stops to keep capital moving. He uses the intraday only to finesse daily setups (think reclaim of a level with volume or VWAP support), not to invent new ones. Routine ties it all together: nightly prep narrows focus, the first hour executes the plan, and weekend review keeps the playbook honest. That’s the real takeaway for traders trying to go from part-time to full-time: edge isn’t a secret indicator—it’s standardized risk, clear structure, and a process you can run on any market day without burning mental capital.
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