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Daryl Guppy sits down on the Desire To Trade podcast to break down how he really trades—from Shanghai to global markets. Known as “the chart man” and creator of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), Guppy is a veteran technician who’s contributed to major outlets and taught thousands of traders. This interview matters because Guppy strips trading back to first principles: clean chart patterns, precise entries and exits, and an unwavering respect for risk.
In this piece, you’ll learn the specific building blocks of Guppy’s playbook: why tightly defined patterns beat “pattern hunting,” how GMMA reads agreement and disagreement across timeframes, and why trades start with the stop, then the entry, then the exit. You’ll also see his short-term FX approach (no overnight risk, ATR-based stops, probability-driven targets) and his big rule for staying sane: you don’t have to trade—wait for your conditions. Expect clear rules you can apply today, whether you’re swing trading stocks or timing FX momentum.
Daryl Guppy Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core charting philosophy: patterns plus GMMA for real market behavior
Guppy treats charts as a direct read on crowd behavior, not as math puzzles. He focuses on a small set of clean, tightly defined patterns and the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) to locate moments when traders and investors either agree (trend continuation) or disagree (trend change). The aim is simple: stack probabilities by defining patterns precisely and acting only when behavior confirms.
- Use a short list of reliable patterns (e.g., triangles, head-and-shoulders) with strict definitions; ignore “pattern hunting.”
- Treat GMMA as behavior analytics: read agreement/disagreement across timeframes to judge trend quality and the likelihood of change.
- Decide in advance where the pattern is invalidated (your pre-defined failure trigger) and act the moment it triggers.
- Remember: markets reflect human behavior; don’t rely on “random series” logic to justify entries.
GMMA execution rules you can apply immediately
GMMA groups short- and long-term moving averages to expose when the fast crowd leans into or away from the slow crowd. When the groups compress and separate, you get the “behavioral tell” for entries, trend strength, and reversals. Use that structure to time trades rather than guessing.
- Buy continuation when short-term GMMA lifts, separates, and stays above a rising long-term group; sell/avoid when it compresses into and rolls under the long-term group.
- Treat long-term GMMA as dynamic support/resistance; if price/short-term GMMA rejects at the long-term group, bias for continuation in that direction.
- Enter only after confirmation: wait for compression → expansion and price clearing your trigger; skip ambiguous overlaps.
- Scale risk to trend quality: wider, well-separated bands = stronger trend and more conviction; messy overlap = reduce size or stand aside.
Stops, risk, and “harm minimization”
Discipline is the edge you can actually control. Guppy hard-codes exits at logical chart levels, never on “math alone,” and places the order immediately so emotion can’t interfere. The daily battle is preventing small mistakes from becoming account-level damage.
- Place the stop the instant you open a trade—at a logical chart level just beyond structure, not at a round number.
- If the stop is hit, exit—no “ifs, buts, or maybes.” Treat this as a non-negotiable policy.
- Pre-wire profit-taking orders so you’re forced to intervene to “break rules”; make error-prone behaviors (like taking profits too early) inconvenient.
- Accept that everyone slips; design processes that minimize harm when discipline wobbles.
FX playbook: statistical range + GMMA timing
FX behaves differently because many participants aren’t trying to “beat” the market; flows and obligations shape price. Use simple statistics to frame the day’s achievable range, then employ GMMA to time breakouts in the likely direction. This keeps you objective and focused on high-probability moves.
- Calculate the 5-day average daily range; expect ~85% probability the pair will do ~75% of that range today—use this to size targets.
- You don’t need the direction at first—just the target envelope; use GMMA/price confirmation to align with the breakout.
- Favor continuation setups when short-term GMMA rejects off the long-term group and turns away; bias to the side of that rejection.
- Keep stops outside the most recent structural swing so a routine wiggle doesn’t eject you before the move develops.
Adapting to market structure: equities, China, and ETFs
Markets have personalities. In ETF-heavy U.S. markets, pattern development can be slower; in China’s retail-heavy market, classic patterns can be more reliable. Adjust your patience, targets, and expectations to the crowd you’re trading with.
- In ETF-dominated markets, allow more time for patterns to complete and be conservative with projections when turnover is thin.
- In retail-driven markets (e.g., China), lean on classic chart techniques; they tend to play out more cleanly.
- Don’t port equity psychology straight into FX; participant motives differ, so your playbook must too.
- Always anchor tactics to who’s in the market and how they move price—institutions, retail, or flows.
Mindset and continuous adjustment
Edges erode unless you keep adapting. Stay mentally agile, keep sharing and testing ideas, and align your method with your personality so you can execute it under pressure. That’s how the rules above stay sharp over time.
- Review trades weekly: if you broke a rule, rewrite the process to make the mistake harder next time (e.g., automate stop placement).
- Keep your method compatible with who you are; refine it rather than chasing new toys.
- Expect to modify tactics as conditions evolve; the solution is never “finished.”
Start With The Stop: Risk First, Entry Second, Exit Planned
Daryl Guppy opens with a hard rule: every trade begins by deciding where you’re wrong. That stop goes at the point the setup is invalidated by price, not at a round number or a comfortable distance. Once the risk is fixed, the entry is simply a conditional trigger that only matters if the stop location makes sense. This flips the mindset from “Can I make money?” to “How much can I lose if I’m wrong?”
With the stop anchored, position size is calculated backward from acceptable risk, then the exit logic is mapped before the order is sent. Guppy emphasizes that the stop is a promise, not a suggestion—no moving it after entry. If price hits it, you’re out, full stop, and free to reassess without emotional baggage. Trade plans that start with the stop keep you disciplined, consistent, and ready for the next setup.
Read Crowd Behavior With GMMA, Not Predictions Or Gut Feelings
Daryl Guppy frames GMMA as a way to watch traders and investors negotiate trends in real time. When the short-term group compresses, then fans upward away from the long-term group, it signals fresh trader enthusiasm aligning with investor support. If the bands tangle and overlap, that’s disagreement and noise, not an invitation to guess direction. The point, Guppy says, is to read behavior, not to be a fortune teller.
He waits for behavior to confirm: compression, breakout, and sustained separation before risking capital. Pullbacks that respect the long-term group are continuation, while deep dives into the long-term group warn of trend fatigue. Entries come after the story is visible on the chart, not before it’s written. That’s Daryl Guppy’s edge—let the crowd reveal itself, then act.
Trade Only Clean Patterns; Define Failure Points And Act Immediately
Daryl Guppy keeps his playbook tight: if a pattern isn’t clean, it’s not a trade. He wants clear swing points, tidy trendlines, and unambiguous break levels—no forced narratives. The reason is simple: messy patterns produce messy behavior and emotional decisions. When the structure is crisp, he knows exactly where the idea fails and can size the trade with confidence.
Before entry, Guppy marks the failure point—the exact price that proves the idea wrong—and places the stop there. If the price violates that level, he exits immediately without debate and moves on. Hesitation is the hidden cost center, so he strips it out with preset orders and predefined triggers. Clean pattern, clear trigger, instant action—that’s how Daryl Guppy keeps probability and discipline on his side.
Size Positions To Volatility And Trend Quality, Not Hope
Daryl Guppy sizes every trade from the stop outward, letting volatility dictate how big he can go. If the distance to the stop is wide because ATR is elevated, the position must be smaller; if the stop is tight on a clean setup, he can press a bit more. Trend quality matters just as much: strong GMMA separation with orderly pullbacks earns normal risk, while overlapping bands and whipsaw action slash size or kill the trade entirely. The goal is consistent account risk per idea, not uniform share counts or “gut feel.”
Guppy also scales with intention, not emotion. He adds only when the trend proves itself—fresh highs with shallow pullbacks and the short-term group staying disciplined above the long-term group—never to “average down.” If a pullback cuts through structure or volatility balloons unexpectedly, he cuts exposure rather than negotiating with the chart. He caps total “portfolio heat” so multiple positions don’t sneak past his overall risk limit. Size becomes a function of market behavior you can measure—not the outcome you’re hoping for.
Diversify By Timeframe, Instrument, And Strategy; Avoid Overlapping Risks
Daryl Guppy spreads risk across timeframes so one bad rhythm doesn’t sink the day. A short-term momentum trade can live alongside a swing position if its stops, targets, and catalysts are independent. He avoids stacking correlated bets—two trades that move for the same reason count as one risk, not two opportunities. If positions rhyme, he either reduces size across them or picks the single best expression.
He also diversifies by instrument and method. A trend trade in equities, a breakout in FX, and a mean reversion in an index future won’t all fail the same way at the same time when sized correctly. Guppy caps total portfolio heat and limits strategy concentration so no theme dominates his P&L. The rule is simple: diversify edges, not hopes, and make sure every new position truly adds a different source of return rather than duplicating what’s already on.
In the end, Daryl Guppy’s message is disarmingly simple: protect capital first, then let market behavior earn you the right to play offense. He builds every trade from the stop outward, defines exactly where the idea is invalid, and sizes to the real volatility on the chart—not to hope or habit. GMMA isn’t a magic indicator; it’s a lens for crowd behavior. When the short-term group compresses and cleanly separates from the long-term group, he has objective evidence of alignment; when the bands tangle, he stands aside. Clean patterns, clear triggers, and pre-wired exits remove the wiggle room where emotions usually blow up good ideas.
Guppy’s professional edge is process depth, not prediction. He waits for confirmation, treats hesitation as a cost, and keeps portfolio heat capped so one theme can’t hijack the P&L. He diversifies by timeframe, instrument, and method to avoid overlapping risks, adds only to proven trends, and never averages down a mistake. If there’s a takeaway to take live tomorrow, it’s this: trade less, define more, and let price action—filtered through disciplined rules—do the heavy lifting.
