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Andrew Mitchem—founder of The Forex Trading Coach—is back on the mic for a relaxed, practical interview about what’s working in his trading right now. From his base in Nelson, New Zealand, Andrew talks through how he runs a global coaching program, why he still loves charts, and how he balances manual execution with automation. He’s candid about the journey since earlier podcast appearances, including growing a team, hosting live webinars across time zones, and keeping the focus on quality trades instead of screen-watching all day.
In this piece, you’ll learn Andrew Mitchem’s strategy DNA: close-of-candle decision making, fixed-percent risk, and hunting for asymmetric trades using Fibonacci retracement entries with extension targets. He explains how to scan multiple timeframes twice a day, why community and accountability speed up progress, how to survive losing runs without system-hopping, and where his PatternTrader bots fit alongside discretionary trading. Expect clear rules, simple execution, and a mindset geared toward consistency rather than hype.
Andrew Mitchem Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Core Philosophy: Simple rules, consistent execution
Andrew keeps his trading simple and repeatable. He focuses on high-probability, asymmetric setups and lets risk control do the heavy lifting. This section lays out the foundation that guides every decision he makes.
- Trade a small, fixed percent of equity per position (e.g., 0.5% risk per trade).
- Aim for asymmetric outcomes: minimum 2R targets on standard setups, 3R+ when volatility expands.
- Make decisions at candle close only; avoid intra-bar tinkering.
- Predefine entries, stops, and targets before placing the order—then leave it alone.
- Keep a capped number of open trades to avoid correlation blowups (e.g., max 5 across strongly linked FX pairs).
Markets & Timeframes: Quality over quantity
He prefers major and strong minor forex pairs with reliable liquidity and cleaner technicals. Timeframes center on higher-quality signals that don’t require screen-watching all day. Here’s how he chooses his battleground.
- Focus on majors and liquid crosses; skip exotics unless spreads and volatility are favorable.
- Primary timeframes: Daily and 4H for signals; 1H as a secondary alignment check.
- Avoid trading 30 minutes before and after tier-one economic releases on the pair’s currency.
- Respect session flows: treat Asia as setup-building, London/New York as follow-through windows.
- If spreads widen or liquidity thins (holidays, roll), reduce size or stand down.
Set up Criteria: Confluence first, then a trigger
Andrew looks for confluence: trend, structure, and a clean candle trigger. The bullets below make the checklist objective and repeatable.
- Establish bias with a simple trend read: price above/below the 20 & 50 EMAs and higher-high/higher-low or lower-low/lower-high structure.
- Mark key structure: prior swing highs/lows, daily/weekly levels, and fresh support/resistance zones.
- Require at least two confluence factors before entry (e.g., trend + level, level + fib cluster, trend + candle signal).
- Accept triggers only at candle close: engulfing bars, pin bars, or strong rejection wicks aligned with bias.
- Skip signals that form directly into obvious obstacles (yesterday’s high/low, weekly open, round numbers) unless room-to-target remains ≥ 1.5R.
Entry Tactics: Fibonacci retrace with precision
He often refines entries with Fibonacci to improve reward/risk. These rules explain where to place orders so the trade earns its edge.
- Map the impulse leg (swing low → swing high in an uptrend; high → low in a downtrend).
- Place limit entries near the 38.2%–61.8% retracement when aligned with the trend and structure.
- Prioritize entries that overlap with a prior swing, a round number, or an EMA touch.
- If price blasts through the fib zone without a stall, cancel the order; no chasing.
- On inside-bar or micro-pullback triggers, enter at the break of the signal bar with a stop beyond the opposite wick.
Stop-Loss Placement: Logical, not emotional
Stops belong where the setup is proven wrong, not where they “feel” safe. These placement rules keep losses small and consistent.
- For trend-continuation: stop beyond the swing that defines the setup (below the signal low for longs, above the signal high for shorts).
- Add a small volatility buffer (e.g., 0.2–0.3 × ATR(14) on the trading timeframe).
- Never tighten stops before the first target; move only per plan (see management rules).
- If the stop distance exceeds your max risk at the chosen size, reduce the position or pass the trade.
Take-Profit & Trade Targets: Let the math work
Targets are pre-planned using structure and extensions, so winners pay for many small losses. This section gives you Andrew-style target math.
- Base target at ≥ 2R using the initial stop distance.
- Use Fibonacci extensions (127.2%/161.8%) and recent structure (prior swing high/low) to refine exits.
- In strong trends, scale 50% at 2R and let the remainder trail for 3R–4R if momentum persists.
- If price stalls at a major level just shy of target, consider taking partials and keep the plan for the rest.
Trade Management: Set, check, and move on
He avoids over-management. Decisions happen at candle close or when pre-defined conditions are met. Follow these rules to protect both capital and attention.
- No micromanaging intra-bar; evaluate only at your chosen candle closings (Daily/4H/1H).
- Move stop to breakeven only after price closes beyond a key structure in your favor or after the first partial at ≥ 1.5R.
- If a fresh, opposite-bias signal prints at your timeframe, exit remaining size rather than debate.
- Cap total portfolio heat (sum of open-trade risks) at ~2% to avoid correlated drawdowns.
Risk & Money Management: The engine of longevity
Risk sizing is standardized, so outcomes are repeatable and compounding works. These bullets keep you in the game long enough for the edge to play out.
- Risk a fixed percent per trade (common range: 0.25%–0.5% for swing; ≤ 1% for A+ setups).
- Enforce a daily and weekly max loss (e.g., 1% day, 2% week); stop trading if hit.
- Avoid stacking highly correlated pairs (e.g., don’t long EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD simultaneously at full size).
- Recalculate position sizes each trade using current equity to keep risk constant as balance changes.
Routine & Workflow: Two focused scans a day
Andrew optimizes for a calm routine rather than constant monitoring. Adopt this cadence to reduce stress and improve decision quality.
- Conduct two main scans: after the New York close (Daily) and one mid-session check (4H close that overlaps London/NY).
- Pre-mark watchlists and price alerts; prepare orders ahead of time so execution is mechanical.
- Journal entries immediately after placement: bias, confluence, entry, stop, target, and what would invalidate the idea.
- Batch review on weekends: tag A/B/C quality trades, calculate R distribution, and adjust filters for next week.
News & Volatility Filters: Respect the calendar
He respects major data releases because spreads and slippage can distort otherwise good setups. Here’s how to keep the edge intact through news.
- Check the day’s tier-one events (rates, CPI, NFP, GDP, PMIs) for the currencies you’re trading.
- Stand aside 30 minutes before to 30 minutes after high-impact releases on the affected pair.
- If already in a trade, consider partial profit or reduce exposure if the open risk is large into the print.
- Skip marginal setups on thin-liquidity days (late Fridays, major holidays).
Automation & Discretion: Best of both worlds
He blends discretionary chart reading with rules-driven automation to scale consistency. Use these guardrails if you’re adding tools or bots.
- Automate scanning and alerting; keep discretionary review for final selection and risk tuning.
- Allow bots to place only pre-approved patterns and risk parameters; manual review before live execution if you’re new.
- Track bot vs. manual performance separately; keep the one with steadier R multiple and lower drawdown profile.
Edge Maintenance: Continuous improvement, not constant change
Andrew iterates carefully rather than system-hopping. These rules help you refine without breaking what works.
- Change one variable at a time (e.g., entry filter or target logic), and test for at least 30–50 trades before judging.
- Prune underperforming pairs and timeframes each quarter; add new ones only after forward observations.
- Keep a rolling dashboard: win rate, average R, expectancy, time-in-trade, and max adverse excursion.
- If a drawdown exceeds your plan (e.g., −6R), reduce the size by half until you print three net winners, then restore.
Common Mistakes to Avoid: Guardrails for consistency
Much of Andrew’s edge comes from avoiding avoidable errors. These simple don’ts will save you capital and headspace.
- Don’t chase price after a missed limit fill; let the next candle close present a fresh, valid trigger.
- Don’t widen stops to “stay in”; exit and re-enter only if a new setup forms.
- Don’t compound correlation: one USD-theme idea at a time unless risk is reduced.
- Don’t deviate from fixed risk per trade after a win or loss; no revenge-sizing or victory-laps.
Risk Small, Aim Big: Fixed Percent Position Sizing Every Trade
Andrew Mitchem keeps the math simple so emotions don’t get a vote. He risks the same tiny slice of equity on every trade, so a loss is just a cost of doing business, not a crisis. Fixed-percent sizing means your winners scale with growth while losers stay capped, which is why Andrew treats 0.25%–0.5% risk as standard and only nudges higher for A+ conditions. The result is smooth compounding and a drawdown that stays survivable, even when markets get weird.
He also guards against sneaky correlation—because three USD longs at “0.5% each” can secretly be 1.5% on one macro theme. Andrew Mitchem sizes every position off the actual stop distance, not a fixed lot, so the plan fits the chart instead of forcing the chart to fit the plan. If the required stop makes risk exceed his cap, he simply reduces the size or passes. That discipline keeps him in the game long enough for edge and R-multiples to do the heavy lifting.
Trade the Close: Let Candles Confirm, Skip Intra-Bar Guessing
Andrew Mitchem builds patience into the workflow by waiting for candles to close before making decisions. A closed bar tells the full story—open, high, low, close—so he isn’t reacting to noise or half-formed patterns. This simple filter slashes false signals and stops him from babysitting trades all day. It also forces clean planning: he defines entry, stop, and target when the bar is done, then steps away.
When price wobbles mid-bar, Andrew Mitchem ignores it because it’s not evidence, it’s suspense. He’ll only take an engulfing, pin, or strong rejection once the candle has printed and aligns with his bias and structure. If the signal forms into a nearby obstacle or the range is too tight, he passes—no FOMO entries, no “maybe if it breaks” tinkering. The habit is boring in the best way: fewer impulsive clicks, more confirmed setups, and consistency that compounds.
Stack Confluence: Trend, Structure, Fibonacci, Then a Clean Trigger
Andrew Mitchem treats confluence like a checklist, not a vibe. First, he defines trend with simple structure and moving averages, then he marks the obvious swing highs and lows that matter. Nex, looks for a Fibonacci pullback that lands inside that structure, ideally near a round number or EMA touch. Only after those boxes are ticked does he wait for a clean trigger candle at the close.
If any piece is missing, Andrew Mitchem passes because the edge lives in the stack, not in a single signal. He refuses entries that point straight into yesterday’s high or other traffic where the reward-to-risk shrinks. When the stars align, he places the order with stop beyond the invalidation swing and targets at least 2R, stretching to extensions if momentum cooperates. It’s systematic without being rigid: rules narrow the field, the close locks the decision, and confluence does the heavy lifting.
Volatility Sets Targets: Use ATR Buffers and 2R–3R Extensions.
Andrew Mitchem lets volatility define both breathing room and payoff. He sizes stops using the chart’s logic, then adds a small ATR buffer so normal noise doesn’t steal the trade. With the stop fixed, he sets the initial profit at no less than 2R and only considers 3R+ when range expansion and clean structure support it. This way, the market pays him for taking risks when it’s actually moving, not when it’s sleepy.
When momentum is firm, Andrew Mitchem projects targets with simple structure and Fibonacci extensions to 127.2% or 161.8%. If price stalls at a major level before the target, he’ll bank partials and let the remainder work behind a sensible trailing stop. If volatility contracts or a heavy obstacle appears, he won’t force a home run—2R booked beats 3R imagined. The principle is simple: let ATR guide the “space,” let R-multiples guide the “pay,” and let discipline decide whether to push or to park gains.
Process Discipline: Two Daily Scans, Journal, Limit Correlated Exposure
Andrew Mitchem runs his trading day on rails: two focused scans and zero improvisation. He reviews markets after the New York close to set bias and orders, then a mid-session check aligns with a key 4H close. Decisions happen only at those checkpoints, which kills the urge to tweak stops or chase candles. By batching work like this, he protects attention and keeps execution fast and repeatable.
Andrew Mitchem documents every setup in a concise journal entry—bias, confluence, entry, stop, target, and what invalidates the idea. He caps portfolio heat and trims correlated exposure, avoiding the trap of loading multiple USD or risk-on trades that are really one bet. If his daily or weekly loss limit is hit, he stands down and reviews, turning red days into data instead of drama. On weekends, he audits R distribution, tags A/B/C quality, and prunes pairs or timeframes that waste risk, so next week’s playbook is tighter.
Andrew Mitchem’s big lesson is that consistency beats cleverness. He trades with fixed-percent risk and turns the market’s movement into proportionate entries, stops, and targets using Fibonacci retracements and extensions—drawn over the setup candle, not arbitrary swing-to-swing lines. That shift let him place limit orders, cut emotion, and regularly harvest 2R–4R outcomes, with single wins paying for strings of small, controlled losses.
He keeps decisions calm by operating on the higher timeframes—Daily, and multi-hour closes like 12H/8H/6H—where spreads on less common pairs become a smaller issue and signals are cleaner. The approach scales: whether it’s GBP/NZD on the Daily or EUR/GBP on H4, the R-multiple logic stays the same, so the process doesn’t change just because pip counts do.
Finally, Andrew’s edge is reinforced by community and structure. He stresses persistence, self-accountability, and showing up—asking questions, posting trades, and refining style until confidence and consistency click, with some traders even parlaying skill into managing funds or selling signals. Around that, he’s built infrastructure—live webinars across time zones, round-the-clock forum support, and his PatternTrader automation—to keep learning continuous and execution professional.
