Table of Contents
Chris Claflin sits down for a candid chat on the Desire To Trade podcast, unpacking how he went from primarily trading futures to adding currency pairs without losing his process. You’ll hear why Chris matters to newer traders—he’s mentored beginners, built a course, and distills lessons from legends while keeping risk front and center. The conversation hits everything from adapting to quiet equity/energy markets to spotting high-probability moves in USD/JPY and AUD, plus how his “go slow, protect capital” mindset kept him in the game.
In this piece, you’ll get Chris Claflin’s practical playbook: aligning with the dominant trend, using higher-timeframe context even for intraday trades, placing stops at logical market levels (then sizing to the stop), and avoiding overtrading. We’ll also cover how to think like a casino (edge over many hands), why chasing monthly pip targets backfires, and what realistic growth looks like from small accounts. Expect straightforward rules you can apply tomorrow—and a reminder that bias doesn’t pay, but process does.
Chris Claflin Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Market Universe & Daily Prep
Chris keeps his universe tight so he can recognize rhythm and nuance. He builds a simple daily plan, marks the key levels, and decides—before the bell—what would constitute an A+ trade versus a pass. The aim is zero guesswork once price starts moving.
- Pick 6–12 liquid symbols max (e.g., ES, NQ, CL, GC, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD).
- Each morning, mark prior day high/low, weekly high/low, and the nearest HTF swing points.
- Note session context: Asia → range, London/NY → expansion. Only expect big moves when sessions overlap.
- Flag red-label events (CPI, NFP, rate decisions). If a red event is within 30 minutes, do not initiate a new position.
- Write a one-line plan per market: “Bias long above 1.2700; buy pullbacks to 1.2680 if momentum confirms.”
Top-Down Bias: Trend + Structure First
He starts wide, then zooms. Higher timeframes set the bias; lower timeframes handle timing. This keeps trades aligned with the path of least resistance and prevents countertrend impulse entries.
- Build bias from Weekly → Daily → H4: if two of three are printing higher highs/higher lows, bias = long (and vice versa).
- Only take with-trend setups unless a clear HTF reversal (break, retest, failure) prints.
- Draw the active channel or moving average “slope guide” (e.g., 20 & 50 EMA on H4). Trade in the slope’s direction.
- If Daily ATR is compressed (today’s range < 0.7 × 20-day ATR), reduce expectations; target smaller R or skip.
- No trade if HTF is sideways and intraday is whipsawing inside yesterday’s value—wait for a range break and retest.
Entry Triggers: Simple Patterns, Clear Invalidations
Chris prefers clean, repeatable triggers with obvious “I’m wrong” points. The trigger must align with the bias and form at a level other traders also see.
- With-trend pullback entry: H1/M15 returns to prior swing or VWAP/20EMA cluster, prints rejection (pin/engulf), then breaks trigger candle high/low—enter on break or limit at 50% of the signal bar.
- Break-and-retest: After a level gives way on strong momentum, wait for a retest that holds; enter on the first HL/LH.
- Momentum continuation: Use a 3-bar pause/flag; enter on the break of the pause with stop beyond the pattern.
- Disqualify entries if signal bar is >1.5× recent bar size (too stretched) or if the stop would exceed max risk.
- Require confluence from at least two elements: level + pattern, level + momentum, or pattern + session flow.
Risk & Position Sizing: Capital First, Ego Last
His risk is tiny by design. That keeps him in the game long enough to let edge play out. Every decision flows from the hard stop and fixed fractional risk.
- Risk 0.25%–0.50% of account per trade; 1% only for A+ setups that meet all criteria.
- Place stops where the setup is objectively invalidated (beyond swing high/low or structure edge), not a fixed pip count.
- Position size = (Account × %Risk) ÷ (Stop distance). Round down to nearest micro/mini contract or lot.
- Hard daily loss cap = 1.5% (realized). Hit it? Flat for the day. Weekly loss cap = 3.5%.
- If first two trades of the day are losers, reduce per-trade risk by 50% or stop trading.
Trade Management: From Open to Close
Chris manages trades with pre-committed rules—no winging it. He scales out to pay himself, then lets a runner try to catch the meat of the move.
- First scale at +1R to cover risk (take 30%–50% off). Move stop to entry only after a structure break in your favor.
- Trail behind structure (prior swing) or a one-timeframe-up moving average; never trail tighter than the last significant swing.
- If price moves +2R and then prints a momentum stall (outside reversal against you), exit remaining at market.
- Time stop: if a trade goes nowhere for two full sessions or 1× Daily ATR has already printed against your direction, close.
- Never add to a loser. Add only to winners after a fresh signal forms with the same invalidation logic.
Playbook Metrics: Targets, Exits, and R
Outcomes are framed in R so results aren’t tied to instrument quirks. This keeps him objective across FX and futures.
- Base profit targets on nearby HTF liquidity pools: prior high/low, session high/low, and measured move of the setup.
- Standard targets: partial at +1R, second partial near HTF level, leave 10%–25% runner with a structural trail.
- Avoid fixed pip/point targets unless they coincide with real levels.
- Record expectancy weekly: win rate, average win R, average loss R, and max adverse excursion (MAE).
- If average loss > average planned risk, you’re moving stops; recommit to “set and respect.”
FX-Specific Tactics (When He Added Currencies)
FX added more swing opportunities without changing the core process. He focuses on major pairs with tight spreads and respects session behavior.
- Trade majors and liquid crosses during their active sessions (e.g., EUR/GBP during London, USD/JPY during Tokyo/NY).
- Use DXY or a simple USD heatmap to avoid trading against a dominant dollar trend.
- For pairs with strong carry or policy themes, be conservative around central-bank weeks—half size by default.
- Slippage guard: avoid entries within the first 2 minutes after top-tier data; widen stop 1.2× normal if you must trade news.
- Overnight holds: trail on H4 structure; if H4 flips against you, exit on the next M15 failure.
Futures-Specific Tactics (His Original Wheelhouse)
Futures demand respect for session opens and inventory. He leans on levels everyone sees and only pushes when participation is clear.
- For index futures, map Globex high/low, cash open gap, previous day value area, and initial balance.
- Trend day tell: if price holds above/below VWAP for the first hour with rising volume, favor continuation and avoid fading.
- Crude/Gold: anchor entries to inventory/EIA times; if pre-event chop compresses, play break-and-retest only.
- Roll week: reduce size by 25% and demand cleaner structure; roll gaps can distort levels.
- Respect limit-up/limit-down mechanics—no heroics near circuit breakers.
Multi-Timeframe Execution Flow
The secret sauce is consistency in how timeframes talk to each other. He never lets a lower timeframe talk him out of a higher-timeframe plan.
- HTF scan (Weekly/Daily) sets bias and key zones; H4 refines the “where”; H1/M15 gives the “when.”
- If LTF gives a countertrend signal at an HTF level, pass or wait for HTF confirmation—no early flips.
- Only trade when HTF bias and LTF trigger align; otherwise, preserve emotional capital and skip.
A+ Setup Checklist (Trade Only When This Sings)
An A+ requires level, context, and trigger to stack. This prevents mediocrity from sneaking into the blotter.
- HTF bias aligned and clear (trend or fresh break-and-retest).
- Liquidity level identified (prior high/low, weekly level, or range edge) with clean space to target.
- Fresh catalyst or session flow supporting expansion (London/NY overlap, opening drive, or post-news trend).
- Trigger pattern prints with tight, logical stop.
- Risk ≤ 0.5%, R potential ≥ 2.5 before first major obstacle.
Journaling & Review (Weekly Tune-Ups)
Chris treats review like a performance lab. He measures what matters and fixes one thing at a time.
- Journal every trade with screenshots: HTF context, entry, stop, targets, and reasons for management decisions.
- Tag each trade by setup type (pullback, break-retest, flag) and grade quality A/B/C before outcome.
- Weekly, compute expectancy by setup tag; keep only the top two performing setups until consistency improves.
- Note emotional triggers (FOMO after missed move, revenge after loss) and define a pre-commitment to avoid repeats.
- Build a one-page “next week plan” with two behavior rules (e.g., “no trades in first 5 minutes” and “max 2 attempts per level”).
Risk Events & Do-Not-Trade Conditions
Knowing when not to trade is alpha. He maintains a standing list where edge historically degrades.
- Skip first minutes after cash open on index futures unless a pre-planned opening drive pattern appears.
- No trades 30 minutes before/after tier-1 data releases on the traded instrument or its base currency.
- Avoid low-volatility midday drifts; if 5M candles are inside the prior 5M range for an hour, stand down.
- If spread/commission spikes (news or rollover), size down or pass.
- After three consecutive losses, stop for the day and run a 10-minute debrief before considering any re-entry next session.
Psychology & Process Discipline
Process beats prediction. Chris treats the account like a business and eliminates anything that adds noise.
- Define success as executing the plan, not P&L. Score each session 0–5 on rule adherence.
- Pre-session priming: read the plan aloud, visualize the A+ setup, and commit to “one good trade at a time.”
- Post-session cooldown: log emotions, note one improvement, and shut platforms for at least 60 minutes.
- Keep lifestyle guardrails: consistent sleep, no caffeine spikes before the open, and planned breaks after trades.
- If you can’t place the stop with pride, you don’t have a trade—close the platform and come back later.
Size risk first, let position follow from clear invalidation levels.
Chris Claflin starts every trade by deciding how much he can afford to lose, not how much he wants to make. He finds the price level that would prove the idea wrong—then places the stop just beyond it. Only after that does he calculate position size so the dollar risk matches his fixed percentage. If the stop is wide, he sizes down; if the stop is tight and clean, he sizes up within his max risk. This keeps losses consistent and stops emotions from creeping into sizing decisions.
Claflin also ties his invalidation to objective structure—prior swing highs/lows, range edges, or break-and-retest levels. He avoids arbitrary pip or point counts that ignore what the market is actually doing. If he can’t identify a precise invalidation level he’s proud to defend, he skips the trade. By leading with risk and letting position size fall out of the stop distance, Chris Claflin keeps his edge intact across different markets and conditions.
Use volatility-based targets and stops; adjust expectations to daily ATR.
Chris Claflin frames every trade around how much the market is actually moving, not how much he wishes it would move. He checks the 14–20 day ATR on the higher timeframe, then compares today’s developing range to decide whether to play for singles or push for doubles. When volatility compresses, he narrows targets and tightens stops; when it expands, he gives trades more room and aims for larger multiples. This keeps win rates and R-multiples more consistent across changing conditions.
Claflin also anchors stops to structure but sizes them with volatility in mind—if ATR is elevated, a stop that was fine last week is probably too tight today. He prefers targets at clean levels sized as fractions of ATR (e.g., first scale around 0.5× ATR, next at 1.0×), so he’s not forcing a fixed pip goal into a dead market. If price has already traveled 0.8–1.0× ATR before his trigger, he’ll often skip, assuming the day’s gas is spent. Volatility sets the playing field; Chris Claflin just adjusts the game plan to match it.
Diversify by instrument, setup, and holding time to smooth equity curve.
Chris Claflin spreads his bets across a small basket of liquid markets so no single theme can wreck his month. He rotates focus between futures and major FX pairs, choosing the instruments that are actually moving instead of forcing trades where volatility is dead. Within that basket, he runs more than one setup—pullback, break-and-retest, and momentum continuation—so he isn’t reliant on a single market condition. The goal is simple: different edges fire at different times, keeping the equity curve steadier.
Claflin also diversifies by duration, mixing intraday plays with swing holds when structure and volatility allow. If the intraday tape is choppy, he’ll slow down and wait for higher-timeframe signals; if the swing context is unclear, he’ll harvest quick A+ intraday moves and stand aside otherwise. He keeps risk per trade constant across styles, letting frequency and time-in-trade create the diversification rather than cranking size. By varying instrument, setup, and holding time, Chris Claflin reduces dependency on any one scenario and gives his edge more ways to show up.
Trade mechanics over prediction: top-down bias, level confluence, simple triggers.
Chris Claflin doesn’t try to guess tomorrow’s headline—he follows a mechanical checklist. He sets bias with higher timeframes first, then hunts entries on the lower timeframes only in that direction. Levels come from places other traders see: prior highs/lows, weekly zones, VWAP, and clean swing structure. He demands confluence—at least two reasons to act—before touching the mouse. If confluence is thin or the tape is choppy inside yesterday’s value, he passes. The point is repeatability, not hero calls.
Once bias and level align, Chris Claflin waits for a simple trigger: a rejection wick, an engulfing bar, a three-bar flag, or a break-and-retest that holds. Stops go beyond the structure that defines the setup; targets map to the next obvious pool of liquidity. If a candle is too extended relative to recent bars, he won’t chase—he’d rather miss than enter late. He limits attempts at a level to one or two, preventing death by a thousand cuts. By executing mechanics over prediction, he converts market uncertainty into a series of small, controllable decisions.
Enforce process discipline: daily loss caps, session filters, strict review cadence.
Chris Claflin treats risk rules like guardrails, not suggestions. He sets a firm daily loss cap and stops trading the instant it’s hit, protecting both capital and psychology. Session filters keep him out of low-odds windows—no trades near major news spikes, no forcing setups in lunch-hour chop, and no opening-bar gambles without a pre-defined pattern. He limits attempts at a level to one or two and refuses to “win it back” after a string of losses. The goal is fewer, higher-quality decisions under stable mental conditions.
Claflin runs a tight review loop to compound discipline over time. After each session he scores rule adherence, tags every trade by setup quality, and notes emotional triggers he’ll avoid tomorrow. Weekly, he computes expectancy by setup and cuts what isn’t pulling weight, keeping only the highest-clarity patterns. Before the next week starts, he writes a one-page plan: what he’ll trade, what he’ll skip, and two behavior rules he’ll enforce. By making discipline measurable and non-negotiable, Chris Claflin ensures process—not luck—drives his results.
Chris Claflin’s core message is simple and stubbornly practical: protect capital, trade with the tape, and let math carry the weight. He starts by cutting losses early and anchoring every decision to structure—stops go where the idea is wrong, not where a round number feels comfortable. From there, he sizes the position to the stop so a single trade never dents the account, and he insists on favorable asymmetry—aim to make at least two for every one you risk—so the edge survives normal losing streaks. He won’t fight the trend, won’t chase stretched moves, and won’t force activity when conditions are dead. That’s how he added FX to his futures playbook without changing who he is as a trader.
Equally important is Chris Claflin’s process discipline. He builds a repeatable daily plan, trades a small, familiar universe, and tracks results the same way every session so the data tells him whether he’s out of sync or the market is. When volatility is low, he dials back targets; when it expands, he gives trades room and lets runners work. If context gets messy—news windows, midday drift, mixed timeframes—he simply waits. And he keeps learning in public: surrounding himself with other traders, refining setups, and focusing on mechanics over prediction. Put together, the lessons are durable: define risk first, align with structure and trend, demand asymmetric payoff, and let a consistent process do the heavy lifting day after day.
