Table of Contents
Paul Wallace—ex–RAF battle manager turned fund trader and performance coach—sits down to unpack why most retail traders lose the plot: they skip process. In this interview, Paul’s battlefield-to-boardroom perspective gives beginners an immediate edge: keep the plan simple, follow it every session, and debrief like a pro. He explains how military-grade habits—checklists, repetition, and honest feedback—translate straight to the screen, and why being “flat” is a position when conditions don’t fit your playbook.
You’ll learn Paul’s practical core: define success by following your checklist (not P/L), grade each trade, and run weekly debriefs to raise self-awareness. He breaks down five market environments and shows how to match method to regime, size down to learn without blowing up, and set relative goals that compound month after month. There’s a timely perspective too—how geopolitics flows into FX, commodities, and indices—and a reality check on social media noise. If you’ve been hunting for a “secret sauce,” Paul’s message is clear: the edge is process, discipline, and consistency.
Paul Wallace Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Market Regime First, Strategy Second
Every decision Paul Wallace makes starts with “What market am I in?” before “What setup do I like?” Matching the method to the environment keeps you from forcing trades when the tape won’t pay. Think of it as choosing the right club before you swing.
- Classify the day pre-open as one of five regimes: trend, range, breakout, fade-prone, or volatile chop.
- If regime ≠ your edge, reduce size to 25–50% or stand down entirely.
- Use a 20/50 EMA and the previous day’s high/low to confirm regime within the first 30–60 minutes.
- Only run continuation trades when the 20 EMA is aligned with session direction and structure (HH/HL or LL/LH).
- Switch to mean-reversion only when price rejects prior day levels twice and EMAs are flat.
The Pre-Flight Checklist
Paul treats each session like a mission: same checks, same order, zero improvisation. This kills “winging it” and keeps risk tight when emotions are loud. Run it out loud if you have to.
- Confirm you slept 7+ hours, no alcohol hangover, and you’ve eaten (yes, really).
- Note macro events: central bank, CPI, PMI, crude/EIA, payrolls; mark “no-trade windows” 5 minutes before/after tier-1 data.
- Mark HTF levels: prior day high/low, weekly open, weekly high/low, opening range (first 15 min).
- Decide your base game plan (A/B/C) for the regime; write scenarios for “If long works,” “If long fails,” “If flat.”
- Set max daily loss (MDL) ≤ 1R and max trades ≤ 5; platform-lockout enabled at MDL.
Entries: Simple Triggers, Repeatable Conditions
Entries are mechanical, not mystical. Paul wants a small set of triggers he can grade the same way every day.
- Trend day: buy pullbacks to the 20 EMA that hold above VWAP with a higher low; sell mirror image in downtrends.
- Range day: fade the outer 20% of the range only after a rejection wick + failed follow-through candle.
- Breakout day: trade only the first clean break of OR (opening range) with volume > 1.5× 20-bar average; skip the third breakout.
- Use stop orders to avoid front-running; avoid market orders except emergency exits.
- Never chase: if entry moves more than 0.5R before trigger, cancel and wait for the next rotation.
Risk: Small, Consistent, and Boring
Survival > excitement. He sizes so a streak of losers barely dents confidence, which keeps execution sharp for the winners that count.
- Risk 0.25–0.5% per trade when adapting a new tactic; 0.75–1.0% only on “A-setups.”
- Hard stop always in the market immediately after entry; no mental stops.
- Position size = (Account × %Risk) / (Entry − Invalidation) rounded down to the nearest lot/contract.
- Daily stop = 1–1.5R; weekly stop = 3–4R; hit it, stop trading.
- Never widen stops; only move to break-even after +1R and structure confirms.
Trade Management: Let Structure Lead
Paul manages trades with structure, not hope. He pre-defines where he’ll scale and where he’ll eject—so the live decision is just following the script.
- Scale out 1/3 at +1R on trend days; hold remainder to prior day high/low or measured move.
- On range days, take 80–100% at midline/VWAP; ranges pay once, not forever.
- Trail below/above swing structure; if two consecutive lower highs (for longs) form against you, exit remainder.
- If entry stalls for three full candles and never reaches +0.3R, scratch for −0.1R to −0.2R.
- News spike against you? Close immediately; you can always re-enter on the next clean setup.
Journaling & Debrief: Where Edge Actually Compounds
Execution improves when you measure it. Paul grades performance, not P/L, and debriefs like a pilot: brutally honest and focused on what’s controllable.
- Log every trade with screenshot, regime tag, setup tag, and emotions (1–5 scale).
- Grade each trade A/B/C on rule adherence only; aim for ≥80% A/B before increasing size.
- End of day: write three bullets—What I did well, What I botched, What I’ll do tomorrow.
- End of week: review stats by regime and setup; pause any setup with a win rate < 40% over the last 20 trades.
- Build a “playbook page” per setup with criteria, images, and a single sentence that defines the edge.
Weekly Routine: Reset, Refocus, Rehearse
The week has its own rhythm. Paul resets levels, reviews macro, and rehearses key scenarios so nothing surprises him on Monday.
- Sunday: mark weekly levels and major events; write one paragraph for bull, bear, and chop scenarios.
- Choose two focus instruments for the week; park the rest.
- Pre-commit weekly risk budget (e.g., 6R) and allocate by day (Mon/Tue lighter, Wed/Thu heavier, Fri light).
- Archive five exemplar trades from the prior month; rewatch them before Monday’s open.
- Plan a no-trade half-day midweek to prevent tilt and review execution.
News & Geopolitics: Translate, Don’t Predict
With a macro headline, Paul doesn’t guess; he translates the likely flows and lets price confirm. The goal is alignment, not hero calls.
- Before a big release, reduce position size by 50% or stand aside entirely.
- Map which assets “should” respond (e.g., strong USD ⇒ pressure on gold/indices; risk-off ⇒ bid to bonds).
- Trade in the direction of the first 15–30 minutes’ sustained response only; fade later overextensions with structure confirmation.
- Avoid holding through event risk unless you’ve priced the worst-case gap into size.
- If price action contradicts the macro “should,” follow price—no debates.
Psychology: State Management on Purpose
Discipline is about engineering your state, not relying on willpower. Paul uses simple, repeatable cues that keep him in the pocket.
- Pre-session: two minutes of box breathing (4-4-4-4) and a one-line intention: “Follow checklist, protect R.”
- If you feel FOMO, stand up, step away for 60 seconds, then re-read your regimen card.
- After any loss > 1R or two consecutive losers, mandatory 15-minute timeout.
- Keep screens clean: hide P/L; show only instruments you plan to trade.
- End the session with a short gratitude line to decouple self-worth from outcomes.
Scaling Up: Earn the Right to Size
Size is a privilege you earn by executing cleanly. Paul only bumps risk when the data says the edge is landing.
- Maintain a rolling 40-trade sample; if win rate ≥ 50% and expectancy ≥ +0.35R, increase risk by 25%.
- If drawdown hits 5R from equity peak, cut risk in half until you log ten A-grade trades.
- Expand instruments only after two consecutive profitable months on your primary market.
- Introduce one new setup at a time with sandbox risk (0.1–0.25%) for 20 trades.
- Never add size intraday after a large win; protect psychological capital.
The Minimalist Workspace
Fewer distractions = clearer decisions. Paul’s desk is deliberately boring, so the plan can be exciting.
- Two to three charts per instrument: HTF context (H1/H4), execution (M5/M15), and optional M1 for scalps.
- Indicators: 20/50 EMA, VWAP, session highs/lows; no more than one oscillator (RSI or Stoch) for divergences.
- Use alerts at HTF levels to reduce screen-staring; let the market call you to the chart.
- Keep a “kill switch” button visible—one click to flatten and disable new orders.
- Phone on airplane mode; notifications off during the session.
The Three Outcomes Mindset
Paul frames every trade with only three acceptable outcomes: small loss, small win, or big win. Big losses are a process failure, not bad luck.
- Target average loss ≤ 0.8R; if you see frequent 1.2R outcomes, your stops are too tight or you’re moving them.
- Bank partials systematically convert variance into realized edge.
- Accept missing moves without chasing; your job is to take your trade, not every trade.
- Track “process streaks” (days you followed every rule) alongside P/L streaks.
- If frustrated, reduce the size to a minimum and trade solely to earn back process confidence.
Start With the Market Regime, Then Choose the Right Strategy to Play
Paul Wallace keeps it simple: the market tells you what to do if you listen first. He starts every session by labeling the environment—trend, range, breakout, or chop—before picking a tactic. That single habit stops him from forcing a favorite setup into the wrong tape. In his words and actions, regime comes before ego.
Once the regime is clear, Paul Wallace narrows to a matching play with pre-defined triggers, stops, and targets. If conditions don’t fit, he cuts size or stands down, protecting capital and confidence. He treats being flat as an active decision, not a missed opportunity. The result is fewer impulsive trades and more clean, high-probability executions.
Size Risk Small and Consistent; Survive Losing Streaks Without Tilt
Paul Wallace treats position sizing like seatbelts—always on, never exciting, but life-saving when things swerve. He risks a tiny, fixed slice per trade, so five losers in a row dent the account less than one emotional mistake. That steadiness protects confidence, which is the real fuel behind execution quality. When the tape is tricky, Paul Wallace cuts size first, not standards.
He also caps the day and week, so tilt can’t spiral into donation mode. Testing a new tweak? Wallace dials risk down to a token amount until he’s logged a proper sample, then scales only if the data sings. If emotions spike after a hit, he steps away, resets, and returns when the plan—not adrenaline—has the wheel. The small, boring risk keeps him in the game long enough for skill to do its compounding.
Let Mechanics Beat Prediction: Checklists, Triggers, and Structured Exits
Paul Wallace wins by obeying mechanics, not by calling the future. He runs a short pre-trade checklist—regime identified, level marked, trigger defined, risk fixed—so the decision is mostly done before price moves. Entries are simple and repeatable: the same trigger at the same spots, session after session. Because the rules are clear, there’s nothing to debate in the heat of the moment.
Once in, Paul Wallace manages with structure, not hope. Stops go at the invalidation point and never widen; partials come off at predefined milestones, and the rest trails behind the swing structure. If the trade stalls and can’t reach a basic progress mark, he scratches early and frees capital. The point is consistency: graded rules you can execute on a busy Monday and a wild NFP Thursday alike.
Allocate by Volatility and Regime; Stand Down When Edge Is Absent
Paul Wallace sets his risk budget by what the tape is doing, not by what he hopes it will do. When volatility expands, he narrows stops in structural terms and trims size so a single adverse swing can’t blow the day. If the regime is a clean trend, he’ll earn the right to press slightly; if it’s noisy chop, he scales down or skips the middle entirely. He treats “no trade” as a high-quality outcome because capital and mental bandwidth are finite.
Allocation also shifts with clarity of signal: crisp A-setups get full unit risk, B-setups half, and anything fuzzier goes to the watchlist. Paul Wallace uses objective markers—ATR, opening range behavior, and distance to key levels—to decide whether to deploy, reduce, or holster risk. If two planned triggers fail back-to-back, he interprets that as a regime mismatch and stands down for a reset window. The result is smoother equity and fewer self-inflicted drawdowns when conditions don’t reward participation.
Diversify by Instrument, Setup, and Holding Duration to Smooth Equity
Paul Wallace spreads his edge so one bad day in one market doesn’t own his month. He mixes instruments with different drivers—an index future, a currency pair, maybe a commodity—so correlations don’t spike at the worst moment. Within each, Paul Wallace rotates between a couple of well-defined setups that work in different regimes, rather than squeezing one trick into every tape. That way, if breakouts are cold, mean-reversion or pullback-continuations can still carry the load.
He also diversifies by time-in-trade: quick scalps for noisy sessions, swing holds when structure is clean, and news risk is light. Each position has its own risk unit and exit logic, so he isn’t forced to flatten everything just because one leg misbehaves. If two positions start moving together, Paul Wallace trims to reduce hidden correlation and protect the weekly risk budget. The goal is a steadier equity curve built on multiple small, independent edges—not one oversized bet pretending to be diversification.
The big takeaway from Paul Wallace is that edge starts with process, not predictions. He hammers three habits that any retail trader can adopt today: build and follow a checklist every single session, run honest debriefs, and keep the plan so simple you can execute it under stress. Checklists aren’t about being fancy—they free up brain space when the heat is on and keep you doing the right things every time, especially before and during tense moments.
He also reframes what “progress” looks like: steady, week-by-week improvement driven by discipline, consistency, and self-awareness cultivated through routine debriefs. Grade your trades, screenshot them, and find exactly where execution slipped—then fix that specific step. Losses aren’t an identity verdict; they’re tuition, and the next evolution usually lives on the other side of reviewing the painful sessions you’d rather ignore.
On execution, he chooses the market regime first and lets mechanics do the heavy lifting: a simple plan broken into small steps you can grade, repeat, and improve. Keep focus on following the plan over obsessing about any single outcome; the boring parts compound into results. And when macro headlines hit, translate them into likely flows and let price confirm—there are moments to step in (or stand aside) when sentiment whipsaws risk assets, and forcing trades in mismatched conditions is how drawdowns grow.
Put it together and his message is refreshingly practical: a pre-flight checklist every day, a brutally honest debrief every week, and a minimalist, rules-driven playbook you can run in calm or chaos. That’s how you protect capital, sharpen execution, and let the right trades find you—one clean, process-led session at a time.
