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In this interview, we sit down with Tony Sycamore—ex-Goldman Sachs prop trader turned FX specialist and founder of Tech FX Traders—whose playbook combines deep technical craft with macro context. Tony talks through his path from the Sydney futures floor to bank desks and why he now focuses on FX, candlestick behavior, Elliott Wave structure, and intermarket drivers like rates and commodities to frame high-probability ideas for private traders. He keeps the risk tight, the routine disciplined, and the analysis practical—exactly the kind of grounded approach retail traders can actually follow.
You’ll learn Tony’s core edge: how he layers candlestick signals onto Elliott Wave structures, then sanity-checks those setups against macro factors (interest-rate differentials, copper/iron ore for AUD, oil for CAD) before pulling the trigger. We’ll cover his 1% risk cap per trade, why he scales out in thirds to “pay himself,” when he avoids trading around tier-one data, and how he narrows focus to pairs where he believes he has a true edge. If you want a repeatable way to find cleaner entries, manage exits with less stress, and build a simple routine that still respects the bigger picture, Tony’s framework is a sharp, beginner-friendly blueprint.
Tony Sycamore Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
Market Focus & Instruments
Tony specializes in liquid FX majors and high-beta commodity currencies where technicals map cleanly to macro flows. He keeps a tight universe so he can know each pair’s “personality” and the macro drivers that move it.
- Trade a defined universe: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, plus DXY for context.
- Track each pair’s key driver (rates, commodities, risk appetite) and write one line daily: “AUD = China/iron ore; CAD = oil; JPY = yields.”
- Avoid thin or exotic crosses unless volatility and liquidity are adequate.
- Only add an instrument after 20+ chart reviews and a written driver map.
Chart Framework: Candles First, Waves Second
Tony reads price action with candlestick behavior to judge participation, then overlays Elliott structure to anchor where the market could be in the cycle. The candles tell him when, the waves suggest where.
- Start top-down: weekly → daily → 4h; mark trend, key swings, and invalidation.
- Define wave context only after a clean impulse/corrective rhythm is visible; don’t force counts.
- Treat long-wick rejections at levels as signals of wrong-footed traders; prefer trades in the direction of that rejection.
- If the wave count and the candles disagree, follow the candles and downgrade the count to “tentative.”
Levels & Structures That Matter
He trades from levels other traders care about—prior swing highs/lows, gaps, and clean measured moves. Structure first, indicators later.
- Pre-draw: prior day/week high/low, session VWAPs, and untested breakout levels.
- Mark a “decision box” (price zone) where both a candle trigger and your wave context align.
- Use simple confluence: level + candle pattern (engulfing, pin, inside break) + trend direction.
- Ignore clutter: if more than three lines are needed to justify a level, it’s not clean enough.
Macro & Intermarket Sanity Check
Before pressing the button, Tony sanity-checks the setup against the obvious macro driver. A good technical picture that contradicts the driver is either lower conviction or a pass.
- For AUD pairs, check industrial metals and China proxies; for CAD, check crude; for JPY, check US yields.
- Require alignment or neutrality from the driver; if it’s opposite and strong, size down or skip.
- Re-evaluate after major data (CPI, NFP, central banks): the driver can flip—don’t marry a bias.
- Keep one page of “driver thresholds” (e.g., 10-yr yield above/below a line in the sand) that upgrades/downgrades risk.
Entry Triggers: Simple, Repeatable, Testable
Entries are built around clear candle triggers at predefined zones. No guessing mid-move—wait for the market to tip its hand.
- Long: bullish engulfing or downside fake-break that closes back above the level; short: mirror rules.
- Inside-bar break in trend allowed only if it forms at your decision box.
- Enter on close or on a small pullback to the level; avoid chasing large impulsive bars.
- If price telegraphs the move during a low-liquidity hour, require a second confirmation in liquid hours.
Risk Sizing & Invalidation
Tony keeps risk tight and defined. Invalidation is a price, not a feeling.
- Risk a fixed 0.5%–1.0% per trade; never increase risk to “make back” losses.
- Place stops beyond the structure that proves you wrong (beyond wick/level); not at round numbers.
- If the stop distance exceeds your maximum (e.g., 1.5× ATR(14) on your execution timeframe), pass or drop to a smaller unit size.
- One instrument, one active idea per direction; correlated pairs count toward your total risk cap.
Managing the Trade: Scale, Trail, or Get Out
He “pays himself” as the trade works, then lets the remainder ride with structure-based management. No averaging down.
- First target: next clean swing or 1R—take ⅓ off; move stop to just inside structure, not break-even by default.
- Second target: measured move or opposing level—take another ⅓; trail remainder under/over higher-low/lower-highs.
- If price stalls for two full sessions at your level without progress, reduce by half or exit.
- Invalidate quickly if a strong opposite candle closes beyond your level on solid volume/time-of-day.
Time-of-Day & Session Behavior
Tony respects session rhythms. He wants participation, not ghost-town liquidity or headline whipsaws.
- Prefer London open → NY lunch for entries; fade initiating trades late Friday or pre-holiday.
- If your trigger fired in Asia but the pair is a Europe/US-driven cross, require London confirmation.
- Avoid initiating within 30 minutes before tier-one data or a central-bank event; re-assess after.
- If spread/slippage widens beyond your threshold at entry, cancel and wait.
Playbook Setups He Repeats
The edge comes from a small number of repeatable plays—executed consistently.
- Break-retest-go: break of level, clean retest with rejection wick, enter on reclaim.
- Trap & reversal: failed breakout that closes back inside range; target opposite side of range.
- Trend pullback: In an established trend, buy the first bullish signal off the 20/50 EMA zone at a prior pivot.
- Mean-revert day: only in clear ranges—fade extremes on strong wick rejection back toward mid.
Journaling & Review That Actually Improves P&L
Tony treats reviews as a trading activity. He logs the context, trigger, and outcome to refine rules, not to write novels.
- Capture three screenshots per trade: pre-plan, entry, exit/management; annotate what confirms the idea.
- Record stats for each setup archetype: win rate, average R, worst drawdown, session/time.
- Run a weekly “stop audit”: how many exits happened at the correct invalidation vs. noise?
- Promote/demote setups quarterly based on rolling 100-trade performance.
Routine That Keeps the Edge Sharp
Consistency comes from a simple daily and weekly cadence that’s hard to skip and easy to repeat.
- Daily (30–40 min): update driver notes, mark levels, write one-page plan with two A-setups and one B-setup.
- Weekly (60–90 min): top-down reset, move levels forward, archive old annotations, and refresh watchlist.
- Pre-event checklist: if a tier-one event is due, pre-decide “no new trades” window and what would change your bias.
- End-of-day: tag trades by setup and session; if you broke a rule, cut next day’s risk in half.
Mindset & Discipline in Practice
Tony’s discipline is mechanical: he builds if-then rules so emotions have less room to act. The goal is fewer, better decisions.
- If two losses occur in a day, stop trading and switch to review mode.
- If you deviate from the plan (early entry, widened stop), log it and repay with reduced risk for two sessions.
- If a pair becomes “personal,” drop it for a week and rotate to another from your universe.
- If you feel the need to predict the news, reduce the size to a token position or stand aside entirely.
Size risk to 1% and define invalidation before every entry.
Tony Sycamore keeps it simple: never risk more than 1% of equity on a single idea, and only place a trade once the “you’re wrong here” price is crystal clear. He treats invalidation as a structure break, not a round number, beyond the wick or level that would objectively prove the thesis wrong. Position size flows from that distance, using ATR or the measured gap to the stop, so the dollar risk stays constant while volatility changes. If the stop is too far to fit 1% risk, he either passes or waits for a better entry.
Before clicking buy or sell, Tony writes the stop and the risk in R terms so management stays mechanical. He also caps correlated exposure so that multiple FX pairs leaning on the same macro driver don’t quietly compound risk. If two losses hit in a day, he stands down and reviews rather than chasing back to even. The whole point is durability—small, defined losses that keep him in the game for the next clean setup.
Let candlesticks confirm trend; use Elliott structure only for context.
Tony Sycamore starts with the obvious: price action first, theory second. He watches for strong-bodied candles, clean rejections, and inside-bar breaks that align with the prevailing trend before he even considers a wave count. Candles tell him who’s in control right now, and that keeps him from jumping the gun on a “smart” narrative that hasn’t shown up on the tape. Elliott structure then serves as a backdrop—useful for mapping scenarios, not for forcing trades.
When the candles and the wave labelling disagree, Tony Sycamore sides with the candles and downgrades the count to tentative. He’ll only elevate a wave view when impulses and corrections are visibly rhythmic and levels are respected by real participation. Triggers still come from price: an engulfing at a decision zone, a pin bar rejecting a key level, or a clean break-and-close. In short, trend gets the benefit of the doubt, candles provide the timing, and the waves earn their keep by keeping him from overstaying the move.
Trade from clean levels with confluence; avoid guessing mid-move noise
Tony Sycamore is ruthless about structure: prior swing highs and lows, fresh break levels, and obvious range edges that other traders are watching. He wants the trigger to happen at these spots, not in the mushy middle of a move where spreads widen and emotion takes over. Confluence is simple and visual—level plus trend direction plus a decisive candle—not a spaghetti chart of indicators. When the level is messy or overdrawn, Tony passes and waits for a clearer place to do business.
He also avoids mid-candle heroics; if price rips without him, he lets it go rather than chase into slippage. Tony Sycamore prefers a break-and-retest or a clear rejection wick, then a close back through the level to confirm participation. If the market is noisy around a level for more than a couple of sessions, he assumes the edge is gone and looks elsewhere. Clean structures create clean trades, and clean trades make for easier management and calmer decisions.
Align FX pairs with macro drivers; stand aside when signals conflict.t
Tony Sycamore won’t force a trade if the driver says “not today.” For AUD pairs, he checks industrial metals and China tone; for CAD, he watches crude; for JPY, he tracks US yields and risk appetite. If the technical setup is pretty but the driver leans the other way, conviction drops and position size shrinks—or he simply passes. This keeps him trading with the wind, not into it.
He also rechecks drivers around tier-one events because the wind can shift fast. When a fresh CPI print flips yields or oil rips through a key level, Tony Sycamore treats old signals as expired until new candles confirm alignment. Only when macro and technicals sing the same tune does he press the idea. If they clash, he protects capital by doing the hardest, smartest thing: nothing.
Scale out in thirds; trail stops under the structure to protect gains.
Tony Sycamore takes profit in stages so he can lock in wins without killing the upside. First third off near 1R pays the risk and removes pressure; a second third at the next clear level banks momentum while the trend is friendly. He avoids yanking the stop to break even immediately, preferring to tuck it just beyond the structure so normal noise doesn’t kick him out. This way, the last third can compound when a move becomes a runner.
For the trail, Tony Sycamore uses market structure—higher lows in uptrends, lower highs in downtrends—or a volatility guide like ATR multiples when swings get wide. If price stalls for two sessions at a target, he trims or tightens to avoid giving it all back. On sharp reversals with strong closes through his level, he exits remaining size without debate. The result is fewer regrets, steadier equity growth, and a process that treats winners with respect instead of hope.
In the end, Tony Sycamore’s edge isn’t a magic indicator—it’s a tight process that stacks simple advantages. He caps risk around 1% with a hard invalidation, lets candles do the talking, and only acts at clean levels where other traders are likely to respond. Elliott Wave is a backdrop, not a trigger. He aligns every FX idea with the obvious driver—yields for JPY, oil for CAD, China, and metals for AUD—and if the macro wind shifts, he treats old signals as expired. Entries come from break-retests or decisive rejections, never mid-move. When volatility stretches beyond his limit, he sizes down or waits for the price to come to him.
Once in, Tony pays himself in stages and trails behind structure so good trades have room to mature. He respects session rhythm, stands aside into tier-one data, and keeps correlated exposure from quietly multiplying risk. The daily routine is light but consistent: mark levels, note drivers, write the plan. The weekly reset trims noise and promotes what’s working. Most of all, he enforces behavior: stop after two losses, reduce size after rule breaks, and drop any pair that gets “personal.” Taken together, it’s a playbook any retail trader can run—simple, disciplined, and built to survive the next hundred trades, not just the next one.
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