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In this Bali villa interview, we sit down with Montreal-born forex trader Merlin De Santis—an around-the-world traveler who went full-time, built a simple plan, and now champions an “Alive” approach to trading and life. He talks candidly about early setbacks, the grind of chart time, and why independence and self-honesty matter more than hype.
In this piece, you’ll learn Merlin’s straightforward H1/H4 technical strategy built on EMAs, how he avoids noisy fundamentals, and the exact risk habits that keep him calm—tight stops, fast break-even, and letting winners work on volatile GBP pairs. You’ll also get his playbook for the mental game: crafting a “trading avatar,” separating life emotions from execution, building confidence through structure, and committing to a focused three-year plan that compounds skills and capital.
Merlin De Santis Playbook & Strategy: How He Actually Trades
The Markets He Chooses and When He Trades
Merlin keeps it simple and focused, so his attention is never split. He favors liquid, volatile FX pairs and works when the market is most alive, so momentum can actually carry trades. Here’s exactly how he narrows the playing field and shows up consistently.
- Trade universe: GBPUSD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD, EURGBP, and occasional EURUSD/USDCAD when ranges are clean
- Primary sessions: London open through early NY overlap; no new entries after NY lunch
- Skip: holidays, major bank holidays, and the 30 minutes around Tier-1 news if already flat.
- Weekly filter: stand aside on weeks with central-bank rate decisions on your active pair
- Daily prep window: 45–60 minutes before London open to mark levels and write a one-line plan
His Top-Down Technical Blueprint (H4 → H1 → M15)
He builds bias from the higher timeframes and executes on the lower, so trades have structure and room to move. This keeps him from guessing tops/bottoms and helps him press when the wind is at his back.
- Define trend on H4 with 20/50 EMAs and swing structure (HH/HL = up; LH/LL = down)
- Confirm on H1: price above/below both EMAs and holding the most recent swing level.
- Only take M15 entries in the H1/H4 direction; countertrend = no trade
- Mark HTF supply/demand and round numbers (00s/50s); avoid fresh entries right into them
- If H4 and H1 disagree, do nothing until alignment returns
The Exact Entry Pattern He Hunts
Merlin waits for a pullback, rejection, and a clean trigger—no FOMO. Entries are mechanical, so he can rinse and repeat without overthinking.
- Setup: M15 pullback to the 20 EMA or prior structure with a wick rejection
- Trigger: bullish/bearish engulfing or strong close in trend direction; no inside-bar breaks alone
- Location: prefer confluence with session open levels (London, NY) or previous day high/low
- Spread rule: if spread > 1/3 of stop size, skip
- Maximum attempts: two re-entries per idea; after that, the idea is invalid for the session
Risk Sizing and Protective Stops
He survives by sizing small and placing stops where the idea is actually wrong, not where it “feels safe.” The math protects the mindset.
- Risk per trade: 0.5%–1.0% of equity; cap daily loss at 2R, weekly at 6R
- Stop goes beyond the M15 swing that defines the entry (not the candle body)
- Minimum stop: 10 pips; maximum stop: 35 pips on GBP crosses, 25 on EUR/USD
- Hard rule: never widen a stop; if invalidated, exit and wait for a fresh setup
- News exception: if in profit >1R before Tier-1 data, reduce risk to near flat or partial out
How He Manages Winners (and Losers) in Real Time
Trade management is where he makes his money—quick to remove risk, patient to let the trend pay him. Simple checkpoints keep emotions out.
- Move to break-even at +0.8R or after a strong M15 close in profit with rising volume.
- First take-profit at +1R (30%–40% off); second at HTF level or +2R; leave a runner
- Trail the runner with the M15 20 EMA or the last two swing lows/highs
- If price stalls for 5 consecutive M15 candles without progress, close the remainder at the market
- After a full stop, a mandatory 15-minute break before scanning again
Daily Routine, From Warm-Up to Cool-Down
Merlin treats trading like a sport: warm up, execute, cool down. The routine builds confidence and keeps his head clear.
- Pre-market: five screenshots—H4, H1, and M15 of two top pairs with notes; one sentence “if/then” plan
- During market: timer every 30 minutes to check bias drift; no chart tinkering between alerts
- Post-market: export filled orders, annotate entries/exits, and tag mistakes in 10 minutes
- Gym/walk after the session to reset; no backtesting or social media until evening
- Sleep window: fixed bedtime; no late trading the day before London CPI/FOMC/BOE
The Mindset: “Alive” but Unattached
He wants to feel alert and engaged, not anxious or dull. A few simple mental rules keep him present without forcing anything.
- One trade at a time; no stacking correlated GBP positions
- If heart rate spikes or breathing shortens, step away for 3 minutes—no decisions in that state
- Use a “trading avatar” note at the top of the plan: three words describing how he shows up (e.g., “calm, precise, patient”)
- Accept that variance is normal; evaluate weeks by rule-following, not P/L
- Every mistake earns a written fix; repeat offenders trigger a one-week rule of reduced size (0.25%)
Journal Tags That Drive Improvement
His journal isn’t a diary—it’s a database. Tags make patterns obvious so he can cut what’s not working and double down on edges.
- Mandatory tags: session (LO/NYO), pair, setup (PB-EMA/Break-Retest), R multiple, outcome (Win/Lose/BE)
- Context tags: HTF alignment (Yes/No), into level (Yes/No), spread OK (Yes/No)
- Behavior tags: chased (Y/N), moved stop (Y/N), partials per plan (Y/N)
- Weekly review: sort by pair and setup; kill any bucket with hit-rate <42% over 30 trades
- Screenshot library: mark “best 10” of the month to reinforce pattern recognition
Money Management Across the Month
Capital growth comes from compounding small edges while avoiding big dents. The rules here make the equity curve smoother.
- Green-light size bump: after +8R net on the month and >45% win rate, increase risk by 0.25% for the next 10 trades.
- Red-light drawdown rule: at −6R from the monthly peak, cut size in half until back to peak −2R
- Weekly withdrawal only if equity closed >+10R on the month; otherwise, let it compound
- No adding funds mid-drawdown; stabilize first, then scale
- Cap total open risk at 1.5R across all pairs
Building the Watchlist and Level Map
He pre-plans likely battlegrounds so execution is push-button. Levels come from obvious swing points and liquidity areas, not guesswork.
- Mark the prior day’s high/low, weekly high/low, and H4 supply/demand boxes
- Use round numbers (00/50) as optional partial or management areas, not entry signals by themselves
- Keep 3–5 clean levels per pair; if a chart is messy, drop it for the week
- Valid breakout only after an H1 close beyond the level with follow-through on M15
- No breakout trades during Asia unless it’s a hold from London with runner logic
The Play for Ranges vs. Trends
Merlin avoids forcing trend tools onto range days. He flips to a mean-reversion micro-plan, or he stands down.
- If H1 20/50 EMAs are flat and price is chopping between yesterday’s high/low, switch to fade-the-edge on M15 with half size
- Entry only at range extremes with a wick rejection; target midline; stop outside the extreme wick
- Two hits per range side max; third touch is often the break—don’t fade it
- If ADR is already exceeded by the London close, skip fresh range trades in NY
- Back to the trend plan once H1 closes outside the range and holds a retest
News, Events, and “Do Nothing” Filters
Sometimes the best trade is restraint. These filters reduce avoidable pain and keep the focus on A-setups.
- Skip the first trading day after NFP, CPI, or rate decisions on the traded pair.
- Stand aside if overnight gaps/price spikes exceed 1.5× ADR
- If three losers in a row on the same idea, forbid re-entries that day
- No trades 15 minutes before/after news if not already at break-even or better
- If the day’s first trade is +2R net, consider the day done—protect mental capital
Scaling Up Without Breaking the Edge
He treats scaling as a separate project with its own rules, so size grows while discipline stays intact.
- Increase per-trade risk only after 100-trade blocks that meet edge criteria (win rate, payoff, drawdown)
- Keep broker, platform, and execution identical during size bumps
- Withdraw large spikes so equity doesn’t outpace emotional tolerance
- Add a second correlated pair only after the first is green for the week
- Quarterly stress test: trade the plan at half size for two weeks to audit discipline
What to Do When the Plan Stops Working
Edges evolve. He audits, tweaks, and, if needed, pauses. The key is to change one variable at a time.
- If rolling 200-trade expectancy <0, freeze new variables and review the top 20 winners/losers for common traits.
- Test one adjustment (e.g., break-even at +1.0R instead of +0.8R) for 40 trades before judging
- Remove the worst-performing pair for a full quarter if its hit-rate lags by >10%
- If psychology—not edge—is the issue, cut risk to 0.25% and run the plan for two weeks without P/L tracking.g
- Resume normal risk only after two clean weeks of rule adherence (>90% checklist score)
The One-Page Checklist He Uses Before Every Click
Checklists make execution binary. If a rule isn’t met, there is no trade—end of story.
- HTF alignment H4→H1? Yes
- Clean M15 pullback + rejection at level? Yes
- No major news in ±30 minutes? Yes
- Spread acceptable and stop properly placed? Yes
- Risk, partials, and management path pre-written? Yes
Size To Volatility: Small Risk, Consistent R Multiples, Smooth Equity
Merlin De Santis keeps risk tiny and lets volatility dictate position size so no single trade can rattle his psychology. He starts with a fixed fractional risk per trade and then scales the lot size to the stop distance, which expands or contracts with the current ATR. When volatility spikes, he reduces the size so the same percentage risk covers a wider stop, and the dollar risk stays constant. When ranges tighten, he may allow a slightly larger position, but the percentage risk never changes.
The goal, Merlin says, is to make every trade worth a clean, comparable “R” so results are readable and confidence doesn’t yo-yo. He measures recent ATR on his execution timeframe, places the stop beyond structure, and sizes the position so a full loss equals 1R while partials and runners pay out in multiples. First target typically banks a quick chunk at 1R, with the remainder managed toward 2R or the next higher-timeframe level. If the daily range is already stretched or spreads widen abnormally, he passes, protecting the smoothness of the equity curve. Over a week, this volatility-aware sizing plus tight loss limits lets Merlin De Santis stack small edges without the big dents that bury most traders.
Trade With The Trend: H4 Bias, H1 Execution Rules
Merlin De Santis builds his bias on the H4, then refuses to fight it on lower timeframes. He marks trend using swing structure and fast/slow EMAs, only looking long when price prints higher highs and holds above both. If H4 is messy or mixed, he stands down rather than manufacture a view. This top-down discipline keeps his trades aligned with the path of least resistance.
Execution lives on H1, where Merlin waits for clean pullbacks and decisive closes in the H4 direction. He wants H1 to confirm momentum and respect key levels before dropping to a finer trigger, so he’s entering with wind at his back, not guessing a turn. If H1 flips against H4, he pauses until they realign, protecting him from chop and false starts. By letting the H4 steer and the H1 refine, Merlin De Santis trades fewer setups—but they’re higher quality and easier to manage.
Always Defined Risk: Pre-Planned Stops, No Averaging Down Ever
Merlin De Santis treats every trade like a contract with himself: risk is defined before entry and never negotiated mid-flight. He sets the stop beyond the structure that invalidates the idea—not at a random pip count—and sizes the position so a full loss equals his fixed R. Once the order is live, the stop does not widen; if price tags it, he accepts the loss and resets. This keeps losers small, data clean, and decision-making calm.
Averaging down is off the table for Merlin De Santis because it converts a planned bet into an open-ended liability. If a setup fails, he’ll re-enter only after a brand-new signal forms and the original invalidation is respected. He’d rather miss a bounce than rescue a mistake that mutates into a drawdown. Defined risk plus zero-averaging enforces discipline, preserves emotional capital, and makes long-term expectancy possible.
Mechanics Over Prediction: One Pattern, Two Attempts, Then Walk Away
Merlin De Santis keeps discretion on a short leash by executing one repeatable pattern instead of forecasting where price “should” go. He waits for a pullback to structure, a clear rejection candle, and a strong close in trend direction—if any piece is missing, he skips. The checklist runs before every click, so the decision is binary, not a gut call. This removes the urge to tinker, chase, or front-run moves because the pattern either shows up or it doesn’t.
If the first entry fails, Merlin De Santis allows exactly one clean re-entry on the same idea after a fresh trigger forms. A second failure ends the campaign for that session; he walks away and preserves mental capital for the next A-setup. Management is prewritten too: move to break-even on momentum, take partials at 1R, let a runner ride with a trailing structure stop. By elevating mechanics over prediction, he converts randomness into a small set of controlled outcomes and keeps the equity curve steady.
Diversify Smartly: Pairs, Setups, And Timeframes Without Correlation Creep
Merlin De Santis diversifies with intent, not volume; he’d rather hold two uncorrelated quality positions than five GBP trades that move as one. He builds a small universe of complementary pairs and rotates attention based on clarity, volatility, and upcoming catalysts. If GBP crosses are hot, he won’t stack them—he’ll pick the cleanest chart and let the others go. That way, a single headline can’t nuke his entire day.
Diversification for Merlin De Santis also means mixing setup types and timeframes without breaking the core edge. A trend continuation on H1 can live alongside a mean-reversion fade on M15 in a different, uncorrelated pair—each with its own risk line and management plan. He caps total open risk and demands that each trade stand alone: unique thesis, unique invalidation, unique catalyst. The result is smoother equity, fewer cluster losses, and more chances for one strong runner to carry the week.
In the end, Merlin De Santis leaves you with a handful of simple, non-negotiable truths. Build one clear plan and live inside. This is a clean H4/H1 structure with EMAs and obvious levels—then execute that same pattern until it’s second nature. Keep risk defined on every single trade, place the stop where the idea is objectively wrong, and get to break-even fast when price moves your way. He favors pound pairs for their movement, accepts that news can ruin a good setup, and protects himself with tight stops so a tag never dents confidence. The playbook isn’t about forecasting; it’s about showing up, reading structure, and letting mechanics take the wheel.
What makes Merlin different is the way he ties trading to how he lives. The “trading avatar” is his reminder to switch into a focused persona when he’s at the screens—closed to outside opinions, loyal to the plan, and brutally honest about execution. Outside the session, he leans into the “Alive” mindset: train your body, feed your brain, travel, meet people, and keep your energy high so you can make rational decisions when it counts. Commit to real work over a real timeframe—think years, not weeks—and judge progress by rule-following and clean data, not by a single P/L day. Do that, and the results take care of themselves.
