Forex COT report
COT report – Forex Commodity Currency Sentiment Turns from Bullish Extreme
Special COT forex report :
Conduct cautions low price of USD in the short term – technical and fundamental analysis
The USD remains a super clear in the environment of foreign exchange market, with accelerating earnings on Friday, tracking the print much better than expected U.S. GDP The global recession and family correlates of recovery are now breaking with the representation of global efforts not so tied to representation in the dollar.
FUNDAMENTAL
The USD remains a super clear in the environment of foreign exchange market, with accelerating earnings on Friday, tracking the print much better than expected U.S. GDP The global recession and family correlates of recovery are now breaking with the representation of global efforts not so tied to representation in the dollar. We have speculated for some time that the U.S. dollar Once more it should benefit from the positive local data and market participants begin to consider a long position in the USD and long positions of U.S. actions simultaneously. While clearly there are still some problems with the global economy, which are stifling the recovery, these problems seem to be changing more and more each time since beating the U.S. in foreign markets. In the last week we also saw the Federal Reserve has left a decidedly more optimistic early warning of an imminent change in monetary policy that favors the initiation of a more restrictive policy towards the future. While a rate hike in the U.S. may not come as soon as the next couple of meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, investors have begun to set price in the investment in monetary policy by the Fed to shore up the sentiment also saw the USD has been increasing recently in central bank policy from China and India. The monetary tightening in emerging economies monster acts as a deterrent to investment in one of the highest performing economies, which has benefited directly dese economic stimulus environments of China and India.
USD Versus Relative Representation on Monday (at 11:35 GMT) –
1) EURO +0.27%
2) SWISS FRANC +0.14%
3) New Zealand Dollar -0.03%
4) JAPANESE YEN -0.03%
5) CANADIAN DOLLAR -0.05%
6) AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR -0.34%
7) POUND STERLING -0.69%
Asia: So, technical studies, shorter-term USD warn any sale of the front, with the single currency now showing on buying against most major currencies. The New Zealand dollar could get a boost on Monday after the director of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bollard, has left speaking of optimism, saying that when the time comes to move against inflationary pressure may have a “piece meat “on the back for the fees. In Australia, the currency representation tube crazy relatively low in recent days, while expectations rise even par at the meeting of Tuesday this cutting. However, the inflation data are still increasing and the Edict of the Reserve Bank of Australia not to hesitate to take a strong decision to do so. This is our belief that the central bank left rates on hold for now. Some secondary data on housing in Australia has been mixed, while the employment data was weaker. In the UK, Hometrack was published and gave reason for concern after the time taken to sell property increased for the first time this year.
Europe: The European operation, the PMI Swiss, German and euro zone were slightly better than expected, while data from the UK were recently mixed and weighed on the pound, reflecting the highest rate for pair the quotation EUR / GBP. Although PMI data from the UK were also stronger, as disappointing mortgage approvals and a softer monetary supply in the currency impact more significant simple. Was also weighed at the pound sterling has been warned that Britain could soon follow in the footsteps of Greece. Elsewhere, in China, the diversification issue has once again left with the central camp counselor, Fan, encouraging diversification, while also denying any knowledge of a potential investment in Greek bonds.
Elsewhere, the Fed’s Bullard came out saying that the risk of deflation is over, adding the Fed’s optimistic expectations carry trades have come under pressure on Monday, with calls to take strong measures in this type of operation, from Lord Turner the UK generating some attention. Lord Turner has said that the carry trades usually do little or no social or broader economic proposal. Finally, traders should note some weakness in the Swiss Franc, after a mad justice minister warned that UBS could collapse if talks with U.S. during an investigation into tax fraud through a fall.
Facing the U.S. personal income (0.3% expected), personal spending (0.2% expected) and personal consumption (1.5% expected) are released at 13:30 GMT, followed by the ISM manufacturing (55.6 expected), and construction spending (0.4% expected) at 15:0 GMT. U.S. futures indicate a slightly higher level of openness, while commodities are mixed with oil and gold offered fairly marginally offered.
CHART REWIND
TECHNIQUES
EUR / USD The objective from the 1.4200-1.4600 consolidation is broken now that has been achieved, with the marking 1.3800 dropping sharply within the last Friday off rebound less. While our central view continues for a further decline, the short-term technical studies are now sold on and ensure a greater need and a healthy corrective rebound. At a minimum, look for a push back to the simple moving average of 10 days by 1.4050, before considering the potential for a resurgence bassist. The key short-term resistance is at 1.3980 and a break above will open an acceleration a simple moving average of 10 days. The inability to break back above 1.3980 however, maintain the pressure in the descent. The next major support is at 1.3745, low levels of June 2009.
USD / JPY The moderate off-target movement of a double peak activated in support break below the neckline at 91.25 has now been reached, and although the general trend seems to be internally bassist in the present, the techniques to more short term are beginning to look a little stretched and potentially could be warning an investment in the coming sessions. The key short-term resistance comes in 90.55 and looks for a break above this level and confirms the pressure builds and opens a back to 92.00. Back below 89.00 and refuses to open the door to a further fall.
GBP / USD The last bout of consolidation has been broken, with a market easily gone 1.6085 to accelerate downward and directly expose a reevaluation of a support medium-term 1.5700 in coming days. While we would not recommend buying at current levels, the daily studies are narrow and the risk from here is for a potential rebound back towards 1.6100 before a resurgence bearish towards 1.5700.
USD / CHF The last break back above 1.0500 suggests that the market now has built a major base that exposes a new medium-term upside to 1.1000 in the coming weeks. However, given the intensity of the increase in recent days from 1.0200 to 1.0600, a short-term corrective decline can not be excluded. However, we hope to use any point within the 1.0350-1.0400 region as a tremendous opportunity to build existing long positions in anticipation of a higher low.
FLOWS
Fix related pairs of demand for the EUR / USD. Fundamental models and systems are expected to sell Australian dollar and New Zealand. Accounts buying leverage trading EUR / GBP. Local name still on offer in the quote USD / CAD; behalf of U.S. investment expects to sell in front of 1.0800.
OPERATION DAY
USD / CAD: The latest increase has been sharp front located away from a medium-term resistance at 1.0745. However, daily studies even show room to run and we expect an additional setback for the next session, beyond its medium-term critical resistance before considering a strong potential for a corrective pull back and healthy. Once 1.0745 is close, any acceleration beyond is visually impaired, and as such, expects to sell within a fault in front of 1.0800 on Monday. STRATEGY: 1.0770 SELL ON A TARGET FOR OPEN, STOP AT 1.0870. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF YOU ARE ACTIVE FOR THE CLOSING OF NEW YORK (5PM ET) on Monday. LEVERAGE OF 3X.
PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW
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COT report – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders – Traders Increase Dollar Short Positions
US Dollar Index: The 13 week index is at 0, which indicates a bearish sentiment extreme. Sentiment extremes occur near bottoms so expect a bottom and reversal in the USD.
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
EUR: The 13 week index is at 100, which indicates a turn from a bullish sentiment extreme. Tops tend to occur in close proximity to readings of 100.
GBP: The 13 week index has rolled over from 100, which indicates a turn from a sentiment extreme. Tops tend to occur in close proximity to readings of 100.
JPY: The 13 week index is at 100, which indicates a bullish sentiment extreme (USDJPY bearish). Sentiment extremes can last for weeks and even months but the presence of one indicates that the risk is high of a Yen decline.
Forex COT Report – Data Continues to Suggest Dollar Reversal
Monday, 06 July 2009 21:53:28 GMT
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom)
COT Forex Report – dollar bullish
Although speculative players cut its exposure to the Euro, the group remains clearly in long position for this currency for the sixth consecutive week.
The most recent publication of the CFTC is dated June 2, 2009:
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured in a specific number of weeks (52 or 13). Measurement close to zero suggests that is forming a floor and a measurement close to 100 suggests that it is forming a roof. The measurements for the currency are not the original quote. For example, a measurement of 100 in the Canadian Dollar suggests that the currency is close to a ceiling (the USDCAD is trading near a floor).
The measurements of 95 and older in the same way as the 5 and under are highlighted in red with bold indicate potential market extremes. For example, an incremental index is bullish because the index is extreme (near 100), the time at which the risk of a setback or a break in the trend increases.
COT forex weekly report – extremely short US dollars and long the Euro
Speculative traders remain extremely short US dollars and long the Euro, Australian, New Zealand, Canadian dollars and Swiss Francs. This indicates a sentiment extreme, which favors a turn towards US dollar strength.
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
COT Report – Australian dollar at top and US dollar at bottom – forex market
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
COT Report – Australian dollar at top and US dollar at bottom – forex market
Canadian Dollar Close to a Top and Yen on the bottom
Canadian Dollar Close to a Top and Yen on the bottom
“A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming.”
COT report for April 2009 – USD and Yen strength
COT report for April 2009 – USD and Yen strength
COT data indicates that the Euro, Australian and New Zealand Dollars are at bullish extremes while the Yen is at a bearish extreme.
COT data indicates that the Euro, Australian and New Zealand Dollars are at bullish extremes while the Yen is at a bearish extreme.
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
