Archive for September, 2009
Forex weekly strategy outlook
Euro – Dollar:
Monday appreciate the pair continue their movement towards bassist, known after industrial output data in the Euro Zone with a figure of -0.3%, according to the estimate.
From a chartist analysis we can see the couple making up positions after reaching the area by 23.6% Fibonacci travel between 1.4190 and 1.4633. Shows signs bullish for today, not to exceed the 1.4600 area could confirm the figure of a Shoulder Head Shoulder (see Graphic).
The resistances to be considered will be 1.4575, 1.4600, 1.4635, and 1.4670.
The media instead place them in 1.4515, 1.4490, 1.4455, and 1.4420.
Dollar – Franco:
In this Monday we can see the pair above 1.0400 awaiting the opening of the U.S. trading session, which will have high impact reports to be published.
With Momentum across the line 100 from the bottom up in 4 hours, we expect a continuation of the upward move today. The next resistance at 1.0430 the find, 1.0475, 1.0520, and 1.0560.
The contrast media will be 1.0380, 1.0350, 1.0330, and 1.0295.
Pound – Dollar:
Started this new week of September we can see this pair continuing its downward trend, noting in 4 hours charts the breakdown of the bullish channel that had been guiding the movement (see Graphic).
The area of 1.6515 will be the first hurdle to overcome after the formation of the respective pull back. Then find the following goals as 1.6470, 1.6420, and 1.6360.
The resistors instead, will be 1.6590 (which happens at the moment the lower limit of that figure broken), then 1.6635, 1.6680, and 1.6740.
Dollar – Yen:
Today, Monday 14, we see the pair trading at 90.95, within a corrective movement after hitting the area again last week at least. The sign for today is up, and the surrounding areas of resistance will be considered in 91.40, 91.70, 92.00 and 92.20.
The supports those found in 90.70, 90.35, 90.20 and 91.85.
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Forex Strategy Outlook – Overview of the U.S. dollar Mixed with the expectations of volatility
A breakdown in U.S. dollar led to impressive gains in several of our systems for monitoring trends in foreign exchange trading, and the dollar continued to fall as augur for the performance of these strategies. However, the collapse of the dollar did not produce a noticeable change in the Forex market options, suggesting that few expect to continue strong in the U.S. weakness The record high correlation with the S & P 500 and other barometers of risk suggests that the conditions of the market outlook will largely depend on the path of financial market confidence at risk.
Given considerable uncertainty surrounding the near-term conditions in the forex market, we will maintain our bias towards the system of rank and rupture. If nothing else, the relative consistency of our strategies Rupture “through varied market conditions give us confidence that they can continue the operation as well. Partially protects against the risks of currency back to the wide ranges of operation we will see any opportunity that is worthwhile in the system. However, the risk in this operation, hold tight in the case of the continuing trend in the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
Perspective Automated Forex Trading
Signals from DailyFX + System Operation Rupture 2 and Momentum1 was understood during the last week of operation with strong anti – U.S. dollar moving and greatly benefits the following prices of strategies. The Momentum2 was caught off guard a little with the changes within the week feeling, but tried to chase prices and the shear key instances. We remain bullish the Rupture by 2 because of its relative strength across different market conditions, but our market outlook is less favorable for Momentum1. Given the lack of monitoring in the volatility of short-term expectations, the breakdown of the U.S. dollar can occur slowly anyway.
The rank 2 is another supporting our strategy in the next week. The main difficulty with this particular system is that it operates very infrequently. It uses a filter that removes him from feeling the key currency pairs for long periods of time – a factor that can be frustrating at times. Of course, patience is still key, and the strategy is likely to wait until market conditions further in a range before entering the operation.
Outlook DailyFX + Forex Market Conditions
Definitions
Volatile Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the last 90 days of operation. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for long periods of time. As such it is useful to know that the current level of implied volatility is related to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures the strength of the trend, says that the price is related to the range of 30 days of operation. A very low number tells us that the price is currently near a minimum monthly level, while a higher number tells us that we are near the higher levels. A value of 50 percent or close, he tells us we are in the middle of the currency pair range monthly
High End – Closing in 90 days high.
Low Range – Low Closing in 90 days.
Last – Current Market Price.
Strategy – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Percentage of very high volatility) indicates that we must find strategies to break. The volatility of more moderate levels and strong values of the trend makes it more attractive the time of operation, while the lowest percentile indicator volatile and the trend indicator designed an operating range of the most attractive strategy.
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The famous and the forex crisis
Forex and crisis these days, where risk aversion has become our daily bread and the economic future is uncertain, remember and know that however bad things are going, there’s always someone who will benefit.
The crisis is affecting or not affecting the international currency market Forex?, In this case the answer would be yes, of course that affects the market, is another thing that affects us or not we, I mean, in the Forex market always peer into a transaction defaults, bone, if a low currency value will rise by another rule, in this case, no matter how bad things are going it should always know what torque point and placed in the correct position, is buying or sale, nothing more.
This contrasted to many of the great fortunes that exist today were forged in the worst economic crisis in history, because they were fortunate opportunity where others saw only problems. At the beginning of the crisis that we live in today, any follower of the currency market have seen an overwhelming and unstoppable collapse of several currency pairs, in this case to win only had to know which side to join (buy or sell), but one of the main features of this crisis is that nobody (or hardly anyone) could predict up when those currencies would fall or when the longed retraction occur.
Just at that moment of extreme uncertainty, where the forecasts were apocalyptic and foreign investors are asking, would happen to the Forex and as a reactionary approach to global crisis …, there was (and is) other investors who were getting the full benefit to this situation, taking full advantage of a market that when someone loses, another wins.
What is clear, and history confirms, is that when there are these periods of uncertainty and panic, is the more “rallies” are presented and opportunities offered; Just do not ever forget the extreme value of diversification, this is another standard that has always taken into account.
The global economic crisis affect the Forex course, especially when it is very difficult to predict where the market will go, but sooner or later there will be a way to determine the direction of currencies, and this is thanks to the economic and monetary policies implemented by each country, we should also remember that the exchange rates of currencies are set and constantly changing depending on various economic aspects, and these can be for example, economic growth, inflation or domestic consumption of a nation, for this why the currency market is always in motion, in turn providing ‘life’ to the Forex market, and logically to profit from it directly depend on the ability of the Trader and its ability to discern information, that ultimately will include in the list of Successful Traders and Traders distinguished from failures.
Currently, consumer credit is stagnant, banks do not grant loans for fear practically defaults, we also immersed in a crisis that no one could define for sure when it will end and what actually happens in the future, to which against such a scenario, we only have one thing clear, namely that the currencies of each country (and some more economic power) struggle and will continue fighting to stay aloft, be stable or at least expect their currency does not lose too much value on the market. And despite the fall in credit, to ignorance of the end of the crisis, the relentless pursuit of economic policies in the desired solution to the crisis, the Forex is maintained and kept as one of the safer markets and greater liquidity in through difficulties.
Recalling a little history and to show that the Forex market still remains in the worst times, we can refer to the U.S. crisis that occurred between 1980 and 1990, called “S & L crisis” (the Savings & Loan crisis), a crisis that caused the bankruptcy of 1,300 financial institutions and 1,400 savings banks, but as real and interesting data, the dollar, despite long odds that many prophesied, was observed, increasing its contribution in the midst of these troubled times.
In my personal opinion, the Forex is a great opportunity in times of crisis, yes, aware of the risk associated with this market, the direct impact it has on it the global economic crisis, taking clear that we should not risk more than we are willing to lose and always operate with wisdom and patience.
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Dollar falls vs euro minimum of 2009 shares on rebound
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar fell on Monday to its lowest level in the year against the euro after a rebound in U.S. stocks revive the appetite for risk, undermining the attractiveness of the safety of the greenback.
Wall Street stocks rose, erasing losses from the start of the session, caused by the U.S. decision to impose special duties on Chinese tires and raising fears of a global trade dispute.
“Again it is the history of appetite and fear of the risk,” said Jacob Oubina, currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
“We had an aversion to risk during the night with news of trade between China and the U.S.. Now (U.S. stock) are getting by to take a rebound and that’s giving some support to the euro,” he said.
By late afternoon in New York, the euro closed up 0.4 percent on the day at $ 1.4622, rebounding from a session low of $ 1.4514. The European currency climbed to $ 1.4652, its highest level since December 2008.
Kathy Lien, director of foreign exchange research at GFT Forex in New York, said the euro zone currency also benefited from purchases of euro against the pound after ratings agency Moody’s said its outlook for banks British continued to be negative.
The pound fell 0.6 percent against the dollar at $ 1.6566, while the euro rose 0.9 percent to 0.8825.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies fluctuated between gains and losses during the session, finally closing with a gain of 0.1 percent to 76.657, its first advance in seven sessions .
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 90.93 yen, reversing a previous fall to 90.18 yen, its lowest level since February.
The operations of the morning were dominated by the trade dispute between America and China, after President Barack Obama announced on Friday it would impose special safeguards on imports of tires from China.
China hit back by announcing its own anti-dumping investigation on poultry products and spare parts for American cars.
The dispute has raised fears and uncertainty about the fragile economic recovery may be interrupted by reducing the demand for riskier assets overnight.
The dollar has been under heavy pressure this month, as optimism about the global economic recovery led investors to seek riskier assets.
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